Fansided

NBA Season Preview 2017-18: Orlando Magic stuck in a dead end

By Philip Rossman-Reich

TORONTO, ON - MARCH 27: Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic hangs his head during the second half of an NBA game against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre on March 27, 2017 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - MARCH 27: Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic hangs his head during the second half of an NBA game against the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre on March 27, 2017 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /
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The Orlando Magic played riverboat gambler for a year and a half.

Their rebuild after trading Dwight Howard was going nowhere with none of the Magic’s three top-five draft picks developing into a star. The Magic had made some small progress — peaking at 35 wins in 2016 — but things were not going fast enough. They were quickly falling off from their perch as promising young team and turning into . . . something worse than mediocre.

The Magic were not going to sit tight and keep building. Their owners, their fans and everyone else was getting antsy. Scott Skiles’ sudden resignation only put the Magic’s desperation into overdrive. And so they started the big swings, hoping to get the eighth seed and restore some hope.

They made big bets on going big — everyone else was going small, right? — and loading up with defenders. They could move their versatile forward around and just plug him in wherever they needed, right? And who needs offense?

None of it worked. Every gamble failed to pay off for the Magic. Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo did not create a defensive terror. Aaron Gordon was not a small forward, his poor shooting and perimeter play limiting his ability to get to the basket. The team’s lack of shooting was — big surprise — a huge problem.

The Magic’s 29-win season was a disaster. The kind of disaster that got their general manager Rob Hennigan fired and left the Magic asking, “Where do we go from here?”

That is a difficult question that even new president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman is having trouble answering. In responses to the media ahead of the 2018 season, he has only promised to evaluate the roster he has and figure out how to move forward once that is complete.

That, honestly, might be a kinder way of saying the Magic are stuck with the roster they had. Their big spending purge in 2016 left the team capped out and with little maneuverability.

Orlando could not find a trade market for starters like Evan Fournier (four years at $17 million per year left), Bismack Biyombo (three years at $17 million per year left) and Nikola Vucevic (two years and $25 million total). They did not have the cap room even to sign an impact starter either. Orlando kind of had no option but to run it back.

At least the team did not tie up its cap even more. It would seem the Magic are not all-in on making the Playoffs like they were last year. The team seems content to see if any of its young players can take a step up. They have some reason to believe it can work. The Magic’s starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon (at power forward!) and Nikola Vucevic had a +1.4 net rating after the All-Star Break (ignore the 110 defensive rating in 410 minutes together).

The Magic opted to spend their cap room in free agency to improve their bench. They added Shelvin Mack on a two-year deal (the second year non-guaranteed) to shore up their point guard position. Their patience worked out as they signed Jonathon Simmons to a reasonable three-year deal. Orlando hopes Simmons, who starred for the San Antonio Spurs with Kawhi Leonard out in the playoffs, can continue to improve in a larger role.

But there is no getting around the fact the Magic do not have top-end talent. They have been down this road. As good as they think they played after the All-Star Break, they were still 8-24. Their improvements came on the periphery. It may not have solved the actual problem. Not for 2018, at least.

The Magic need to get an influx of talent. But they are still not willing to go the full tanking route — not with a restless fan base that still asks whether five years is long enough. In any case, the team tried that the last five years and ended up . . . here.

Orlando then is banking on improvement on fourth-year forward Aaron Gordon finally taking a leap offensively. Gordon is healthy for training camp for the first time in three years and averaged 16.7 points per game after the All-Star Break when he shifted to power forward. If he is going to take a leap now is the time.

They are banking a significant part of their future on the development of Jonathan Isaac. The sixth overall pick of the 2017 NBA Draft is a long, wiry forward with guard skills on the perimeter. But he will need time to acclimate to the NBA game.

And they are banking on Elfrid Payton continuing to be the triple-double machine he was after the All-Star Break. His 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game puts him in elite company, if he can do it for the course of an entire season.

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And then they are relying on more solid and consistent contributions from Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier.

The Magic do not have a clear way forward. They do not seem to have the ability to go out and get their next big star. The team needs to draft him. But they are not ready to go through the pain it may take to get there. Not on purpose, at least. And not to begin the season.

They may get there if things implode again. At least then, they might be another year closer to breaking free from the dead end they have painted themselves into. Until then, the Magic can only wait.