The basketball world has become all too accustomed in recent seasons to the rapid scoring binges of teams like the Golden State Warriors, with the copycat league concept being borne out in every team’s attempt to move closer to a pace-and-space ideal. However, theory and reality often tend to be divergent, as do process and results. It’s one thing to profess the desire to emulate the Warriors offense. It’s another thing entirely to have the right blend of personnel, chemistry, and decision-making in order to effectively execute on that vision.
The New Orleans Pelicans were one of the teams that fell head over heels for the Golden State Warriors’ style, and with an ascendant star of their own in Anthony Davis, it made sense. New Orleans got their man in Alvin Gentry, who was coming off a league-redefining championship stint with Golden State, but going into the third year of Gentry’s tenure, the Pelicans have drastically underwhelmed on the offensive side of the ball. There are many factors to blame (such as injuries), but the most practical one is simply a mismatch of style and personnel.
One proxy we can use to check the effectiveness of the Pelicans’ desired playing style is how they utilize their shot clock, with an assist from NBA Stats’ shots dashboard. Performance at the fringes of the shot clock aside (shot clock off or with 24-22 seconds on the clock), the Pelicans’ desire to move fast is manifested in the fact that last season they took 14.2 percent of their shots with 22-18 seconds on the shot clock and 19.7 percent of their shots with 18-15 seconds on the shot clock, classified as “very early” and “early” by NBA Stats. Both figures were above the league average, with New Orleans actually ranking third in the NBA in frequency of shots taken with 18-15 seconds on the shot clock. On the flip side, they ranked in the bottom-seven of the league in shots taken either “average,” “late,” or “very late” in the shot clock.
Not that that is completely a bad thing; the Pelicans aren’t wasting the shot clock before trying to get off panicked, forced shots. However, a quick look at the Pelicans’ effective field goal percentage in those shot clock situations suggests that skewing a little away from being so zealous early in the shot clock could serve them well.
The Pelicans, much like teams such as the Brooklyn Nets, saw a stark difference between concept and actual performance in their desired utilization of the shot clock. Despite being eager to take early shots, the Pelicans were simply not very good at it. They were middle of the pack in isolation effective field goal percentage (43.8 percent), but more importantly, 25th in the league in converting transition opportunities (57 effective field goal percentage), two large contributing factors to the Pelicans’ inability to effectively create early offense. Teams like the Warriors and Rockets have guards like Steph Curry and James Harden who can bring the ball up by themselves and exploit early mismatch situations. They have cerebral, reliable shooters who can convert transition opportunities. The Pelicans couldn’t achieve that last season. And they’re certainly not built that way this season.
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Outside the Anthony Davis-DeMarcus Cousins-Jrue Holiday triumvirate, the Pelicans will be leaning heavily on new additions Rajon Rondo and Tony Allen, certainly nobody’s idea of knockdown scorers. Ian Clark should serve the Pelicans well in the shooting department, and E’Twaun Moore is underrated, but by and large, the Pelicans lack the quick-hitting firepower of the league’s offensive elites. Instead they would do well to allow Rondo and Holiday to survey and probe the defense, for cutters like Ian Clark to move the defense around, for multiple pick-and-roll sets to efficiently develop so Davis and Cousins can be at their most punishing. Patient offense doesn’t have to mean slogging offense, and up-tempo offense doesn’t have to mean rushed offense. Applying those distinctions could be at the heart of the Pelicans’ potential offensive improvement if they are to mount a challenge in the West this coming season.