The last three seasons, the Toronto Raptors have finished sixth, fifth and third in offensive efficiency. They have done so despite finishing 22nd, 29th and 20th in pace, and sixth and 10th in isolation frequency the past two seasons. While it appears that the NBA is chasing efficiency by moving towards an uptempo, movement-based ideal, the Raptors have found success by slowing things down and grinding out possessions with the individual offensive talents of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry.
Of course that formula has, somewhat famously, not provided the same sort of results in the playoffs. Last season the Raptors were, on paper, as well equipped as ever to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers. Instead, they went out with a whimper.
Whatever explanatory reasons you favor for the Raptors postseason struggles, the simple precept of inherent insanity in doing the same things and expecting different results would seem to demand some stylistic changes. Masai Ujiri even used the word style change in his postseason press conference. The Raptors lost a few pieces this summer but retained the important ones. The challenge then is figuring out how to get something different from the same pieces.
To examine what the Raptors are working with, we can turn to the offensive style charts I’ve used in the past. These charts are not meant to evaluate whether an offense is good or bad. They are designed to help illustrate how teams go about the goal of trying to put the ball in the basket. Each team’s offense is evaluated on four stylistic spectrums.
Ball movement is measured with the average touch time for each team, from the NBA’s player tracking statistics. A lower average touch time means the ball is moving from player to player more quickly.
Player movement is measured with a combination different NBA.com tracking statistics, and works out to average distance traveled per 24 seconds of offensive possession.
Pace is measured with the average length of an offensive possession from Inpredictable, a more accurate representation for how quickly a team is working than traditional pace.
Shot selection uses MoreyBall percentage — in this case the percentage of a team’s true shooting opportunities that came at the rim, from the free throw line, or on a 3-pointer. It’s a generalized measure but captures something about how much each team hews to the shots that are, on average, the most efficient.
Here’s how the Raptors offense has looked the past three seasons.
Over the past three seasons, the Raptors’ offense has never ranked above the 50th percentile in any of these stylistic measures, usually falling way below. Obviously, they’ve had plenty of regular season success with this style and it isn’t that different from the way the Clippers have played the past few seasons, or the way the Thunder operated with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
The issue is where and how the Raptors might be able to adapt if they’re going to try and be a different team entering the playoffs. Last year, the Raptors played at their fastest pace, relative to the league average, which is something they may look to expand on this year. They also utilized the most player movement, something which has steadily increased over the past three seasons.
Still, the Raptors’ offense has been so extreme, stylistically, over the past three seasons, it’s hard to imagine them swinging dramatically in the other direction on any of these elements. DeMar DeRozan isn’t going to suddenly become J.J. Redick — the mid-range is a big part of his game and the Raptors overall shot selection isn’t likely to change dramatically. In the end, just continuing to increase their pace slightly may be the easiest avenue to change — especially in a second-unit that leans heavily on Norman Powell as a shot creator.
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In the end, the Raptors might benefit from some small changes in each area — a few more possessions pushing the pace, a little more off-ball action, a few less off-the-dribble mid-range jumpers. But given that their personnel hasn’t changed dramatically the offense is likely to maintain it’s stylistic core. Whether changes around the margin can manifest in more playoff consistency remains to be seen.
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