NBA Season Preview 2017-18: The versatility of the Oklahoma City Thunder
A year ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder were at the brink of a familiarly depressing tale for small market teams, facing a season that seemed all but destined to end in vengeful brilliance by Russell Westbrook, but little to show for it in the win column after the departure of Kevin Durant to the bay. It seemed an easy bet that the season would end without fanfare, and then Westbrook would move on, leaving the Thunder with a true rebuild. But as the dancing master Syrio Forel once claimed in Game of Thrones, “What do we say to the god of death? Not today.”
Russell Westbrook won the MVP with a monstrosity of a regular season campaign, and then Sam Presti picked up in the offseason where Westbrook left off. Through clever roster maneuvering and proactive trades that must have been visualized on a chessboard, Presti gave the Thunder one more chance to stake their claim at the top of the West, bringing in Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, and Patrick Patterson while retaining NBA All-Defense second teamer Andre Roberson.
The Thunder stockpiled talent, yes, but they got something else that NBA teams so desperately crave: versatility. Not necessarily positional versatility (though they have that as well), but the kind of roster versatility that will allow Billy Donovan to roll out lineups for any situation and any matchup. We can use my lineup balance charts to visualize this effect, examining three different potential lineups for the Oklahoma City Thunder:
As a quick refresher, the lineup balance charts stack percentile ranks among various statistics for all five players in a lineup (and you can create your own at this link). Oklahoma City’s projected base lineup next season is a well-rounded unit that offers length, good defenders, players that can score at will and get to the free throw line, and doesn’t sacrifice one of their defining strengths from last season — rebounding. By pairing Russell Westbrook with an elite wing in Paul George who can connect both the offense and defense, the Thunder have the talent to combat the best teams in the league.
But it doesn’t stop there. The Thunder can play a defensive lineup of Westbrook-Roberson-George-Patterson-Adams which would be among the most switchable and stout defensive units in the league, a quick-footed, athletic group that doesn’t give up much size. Every single player in the all-defense lineup ranked in the top half of the league last year in Defensive Box Plus-Minus (though the qualms with Westbrook’s DBPM have been well-documented). Paul George was the only player with a negative DBPM (coming in at -0.3), but that was the first full regular season George has played where he posted a negative DBPM, suggesting that the underlying problem was not George so much as it was the team around him.
Or why not roll with an all-out spacing lineup of Westbrook-Abrines-George-Anthony-Patterson? That’s a menacing unit where all five players shot above 34 percent from deep last season, with three players (Abrines, George, and Patterson) who shot above 37 percent. Nobody in that lineup is gun-shy either, with all five attempting over eight 3-point attempts per 100 possessions last year. Playing Carmelo Anthony at the four would allow us to see the return of Olympic Melo, and Patterson is versatile enough to play at center in short bursts.
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The Thunder, in one season, went from a team fighting for their lives to a team expected to be fighting for the top of the Western Conference. They retooled from a team that was “Russell Westbrook et al” to a team stocked with elite talent and lineup versatility. Sam Presti’s wizardry gets its well-deserved plaudits, but this may be his most impressive job yet.
*All data for lineup balance charts courtesy of Basketball-Reference