Fifty-one losses a season ago, but for a franchise that has been in the doldrums for over 10 years, this season projects to be joyous and productive, comparatively.
Here’s a glimpse of how poor Minnesota has been for the past 15 years via hierarchical clustering:
This chart demonstrates the aptitude associated with Minnesota Timberwolves’ teams on a yearly basis and the individual assessments are given with letter grades. After Kevin Garnett’s departure, there’s only been gloom with the exception of 2013-14, where a playoff berth would’ve been reasonable.
Adding former Chicago Bulls’ premier player, Jimmy Butler, to strengthen both ends of the floor and lead the team should pay dividends and bring more victories to the fans’ delight. At last, the combination of Butler and Thibodeau is re-ignited!
Additionally, Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson are projected to round out the transformed starting lineup. Quietly, 29-year-old Teague may have had arguably his best offensive season; he spent 2017-18 shooting 35.7 percent from downtown (though he generally isn’t inclined to shoot from distance), avoiding high volume in the mid-range (because of his checkered past with mid-range shot efficiency) and taking it to the free throw line often (.457 free throw rate). Gibson, an eight-year veteran, began last year with Jimmy Butler in Chicago and was very active on the defensive glass until his brief stint with the Thunder began.
The Timberwolves plan to be at the free throw line quite a bit in 2017-18. Jimmy Butler was an exceedingly deadly offensive player in 2016-17 (58.6 true shooting percentage) with a free throw rate of .540; Andrew Wiggins had a free throw rate of .345, and prodigious Karl-Anthony Towns maintained a .289 free throw rate. With adept shot-creation and athleticism, there should be opportunity for near-excellence on the offensive end.
In 2016-17, the T-Wolves shot a league-low 22.5 percent of its shots from 3-point land which would be above average in 2001, but the league has learned and adapted. They neither attempted nor made 3-pointers with frequency.
This diagram simply demonstrates where the Timberwolves were represented in terms of 3-point frequency and 3-point percentage.
Minnesota scored 111 points per 100 possessions despite a truly archaic approach to getting baskets. High-usage players, like Andrew Wiggins, have the proclivity to spend a lot of time in the mid-range, crafting looks from 8-22 feet. Twenty-five percent of Wiggins’ shot attempts came from deep in the mi-range (16 ft. to 3-point line) and he only hit 38.3 percent of those floor attempts.
In this upcoming year, it seems as if they need to shoot more 3s to further raise their offensive ceiling, but with the new roster combination, a high 3-point rate seems a bit more impractical. Who’ll take the initiative and become the reliable option from the perimeter? Though we have evidence that Butler and Towns can be willing and effective, will Minnesota get sufficient 3-point contributions from players like Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford, or Shabazz Muhammad? Tyus Jones or Nemanja Bjelica, perhaps? Tom Thibodeau will have to employ his craftiness this season, finding viable combos to incite productivity from Jamal Crawford in bench situations and to hopefully provide 6-foot-11 center Gorgui Dieng with the optimal frontcourt pairing to make use of his uniqueness — he could use a great season as an undercutting defeater to the dissenting opinions about his lucrative contract.
Hopefully, Jeff Teague’s speed and the team’s overall athleticism will lead to more transition opportunities and fewer halfcourt possessions in which the opposing defense will likely look to shrink the floor and help significantly on Butler/KAT isolations nd KAT rolls to the rim. Last season, they were 18th in transition frequency.
A bright spot for the offense should be their projected dominance on the offensive glass. Last season, Minnesota ranked third in offensive rebounding, and were second-best in putbacks via NBA.com/stats points per possession. Adding Taj Gibson’s physicality should sustain the efficiency of this play type. If their 3-point shooting still isn’t dependable, offensive rebounding will be paramount.
There should be improvement in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ defensive ability, given their seemingly improbable draft night trade with the Bulls for Jimmy Butler. Their defense (which last year specialized in no areas despite the defensive consistency of Ricky Rubio) should be in line for improvement. Karl-Anthony Towns wasn’t good defensively (dead last in defensive real plus-minus among centers); neither was Andrew Wiggins. However, both have the athletic profiles to be at least serviceable; the understanding and attentiveness must follow.
Additionally, the onus won’t be on these two to defend a premier wing; Jimmy Butler, who was fourth in Defensive Real Plus-Minus, will take the primary responsibility. Butler’s 2016-17 Chicago Bulls sustained a defensive rating of 103.7 while he was on the floor, and players shot -2.6 percent worse when defended by Butler.
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When projecting this Minnesota’s offensive and defensive ability and comparing them to past teams via hierarchical clustering, I rendered a comparison of the 2003 Portland Trailblazers, who won 50 games, sustained a top-10 offense but lost in the first round of the playoffs. Of course, this wasn’t a stylistic comparison, but one that offers a historic team that is in the tier that these Minnesota Timberwolves are projected to reach. If the Timberwolves can transform their naturally roster into fantastic cutters or shooters with competent volume and improve their defending as Thibodeau would intend, maybe 50 wins, or at least high 40s, could be attainable.