The Bulls undoubtedly entered a rebuilding phase this summer when they traded Jimmy Butler, moved up in the draft, and shifted to a younger nucleus. It remains unclear, however, whether any of their young pieces are bona fide franchise building-blocks.
Cameron Payne, for whom Chicago sacrificed some of its central pieces, doesn’t appear to be an NBA-caliber player, while Kris Dunn and Jerian Grant have not looked promising early in their NBA careers. Lauri Markkanen was great in Eurobasket, but could struggle mightily in the stronger, more talented NBA.
Indeed, the Bulls seem to be rebuilding without a foundation. But they could have an asset waiting to be unearthed in Zach LaVine. Along with Dunn and the No. 7 pick in the 2017 draft (which became Markkanen), LaVine was shipped over in the Jimmy Butler trade after tearing his ACL in 2017.
LaVine’s time in Minnesota raises some red flags — he’s not expected to be healthy at the start of the season, and the Timberwolves didn’t miss a beat after he went down. In 2,213 minutes without LaVine on the court, Minnesota had a 0.8 net rating, compared to a -3.5 net rating with him on the floor. LaVine was below-average in every advanced stat despite playing over 37 minutes per game. By and large, he seemed to put up empty, easily replaceable numbers.
The eye test tells a different story. LaVine looks the part of an NBA two-guard: at 6-foot-5, he’s an above-average shooter with otherworldly bounce, and he’s only 22. LaVine shot a shade under 39 percent from downtown last season on 6.6 attempts per game, pushing his effective field goal percentage over 54 percent. He managed to score almost 19 points per game despite being a relatively low-usage player.
LaVine’s stroke is pure and versatile, partly due to the elevation he gets on his shot, which renders late-arriving defenders futile as LaVine rises above them. Tom Thibodeau loved running LaVine off screens, and LaVine’s ability to stop, catch, and square up on a dime made him a threat in those situations. He averaged a point per possession coming off of screens and shot 43.2 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s. The mechanics are sound and the results were there:
LaVine was solid with the ball in his hands as well. His first year in the league was mostly a disaster because he was effectively the team’s backup point guard, a role that didn’t suit his game at the time. Now, that experience has opened up his game tremendously.
He was average in isolations last season — 0.83 points per possession — and finished in the 64th percentile leaguewide as the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls. Athletically, LaVine is as smooth as he is explosive; he can change speeds or directions at a moment’s notice, and his handle has improved significantly. Even amongst lurking giants and swiping limbs, LaVine still traverses to the basket for high percentage shots:
He shot nearly 61 percent within five feet of the rim last season, the sixth-best mark among guards who attempted at least four such shots per game. LaVine may never be a true primary ball-handler, but he’s good enough to create advantages off the bounce. He ran four pick-and-rolls per game in Minnesota last season. Now, with lackluster guard talent around him, his pick-and-roll usage should surge in Chicago.
Aside from cutting (1.42 points per possession), LaVine was most productive in transition. LaVine is a blur in the open court and nearly impossible to stop if he gets a head of steam going toward the basket. LaVine knows this, and is opportunistic in fast break situations. If a teammate grabs a rebound and the defense isn’t set, LaVine is running:
He scored 1.26 points per possession in transition and ranked 12th in the NBA in transition points per game. Even in semi-transition, when defenses are back but not entirely set, LaVine deftly finds alleys to the hoop for easy buckets:
LaVine still needs to turn some of those forays in the lane into trips to the charity stripe. Last year, his free throw rate was a career-worst .197, a miniscule mark for someone who shoots as often as he does. He’s a career 82.1 percent free throw shooter, and the best route to becoming more efficient is getting to the free throw line more often. Those are easy points he’s leaving on the table.
While LaVine has become more dynamic scorer every year of his career, he has yet to improve as a playmaker. After Minnesota shelved the “LaVine At Point Guard” experiment, LaVine’s production as a distributor steadily declined. He posted just a 12.6 assist percentage last year and was narrowly focused on scoring when he went to the rim. In a more creative role, though, he might be able to tap into some of the playmaking he displayed in his rookie year, now with a more refined offensive game to go with it.
Looming over all of this is the dark cloud of the ACL injury LaVine suffered in February. Strip LaVine of his nuclear athleticism and explosiveness, and he’s a different player, even with his smooth jumper and improved handle. There’s no firm timetable for his return, and things could get really dark for Chicago in the interim.
Even with LaVine, things will be dark for the Bulls. Injury concerns aside, it’s unclear how good a team led by LaVine can be. Without the playmaking of Ricky Rubio and the threat of Andrew Wiggins and Karl Towns, LaVine’s shots won’t come as easily, and defenses can focus more on stopping him. What happens when he has less real estate with which to work?
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His defense is still atrocious, which is disappointing given his athleticism. Chicago doesn’t have great defensive personnel or a great defensive coach. Expecting LaVine to morph into an average or better defender probably isn’t realistic. He has the potential to be disruptive on defense, jumping passing lanes or flying in for help-side blocks, but making a consistent impact isn’t in his game.
The coming season will be a major proving game for LaVine and a checking of inventory for the Bulls. Chicago is betting that they got someone who not only puts up numbers, but impacts winning as well.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com.
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