Trading Giancarlo Stanton: Is your team a contender?

There is more to a Giancarlo Stanton trade than what meets the eye.

After Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman acquired the Miami Marlins from Jeffrey Loria, the team’s new owners took stock of all of the team’s assets going forward. From signing a new television rights contract to figuring out how to fill Marlins Park with fans, Jeter and Sherman will have their hands full over the next few months.

Unfortunately for the Marlins faithful, Jeter has indicated that he plans to rebuild the team “from the bottom up.” And that could mean he intends on trading the team’s best player, slugger Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton, who hit 59 homeruns this season, is coming off of his best year statistically. However, Stanton also possesses the largest contract in North American sports history — 13 years, $325 million. Moving a player like Stanton would be perhaps the most consequential trade in baseball since the Texas Rangers traded Alex Rodriguez to the New York Yankees in 2003. If Stanton is placed on the trading block, Derek Jeter and the Fish could face a wave of teams ready to sell the farm for the possibility of having Stanton play for them.

That said, there is much more to a Giancarlo Stanton trade than what meets the eye.

First, teams looking to acquire Stanton would have to be able to afford as much of his contract as possible. While the Marlins may help offset some of the contract, the demand for Stanton will probably be high enough that he could be traded with the full value of the agreement intact.

Currently, there are ten years left on Giancarlo Stanton’s contract for a total of about $295 million. Because Stanton’s contract was backloaded, very little of the $325 million total has been paid. Thus, each season, Stanton’s new team would have to be prepared to pay about $25-29 million through the year 2028. As such, small market teams — which, for the purposes of this article we’ll define as teams with a maximum budget of about $115 million — will not be able to afford Stanton’s services without drastic changes to their roster. This means that the Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland Athletics, San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks are unable to afford Stanton’s contract.

Next, there is the matter of Stanton’s no-trade clause. While Giancarlo has not addressed how he would use his no-trade clause, he has said that he would prefer not to be part of another rebuild in Miami. Presumptively, Stanton would be willing to be moved if Derek Jeter maintains that an entire roster rebuild is necessary for the Marlins organization.

Furthermore, Stanton could use his no-trade clause to force a trade to specific teams — namely, West Coast teams near his home in California. This means that mid-to-high level teams (again, in terms of budget) that can afford Stanton and are on the West Coast are some of the more probable landing spots. Specifically, that means the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners. The Angels and Mariners are particularly interesting because it remains to be seen whether Stanton would prefer to play for a National League or American League team — an AL team especially could use Stanton as a Designated Hitter for rest purposes and toward the twilight of his career.

Finally, there’s the question of the Marlins’ return: What would they require if Stanton chooses to waive his no-trade clause?

The Marlins are a pitching-starved franchise that currently has no ace and no closer for the immediate future. Looking at similar high-profile trades — such as the Chris Sale trade that sent four top prospects to Boston last off-season — the Marlins could be looking for a four or five prospect return, including at least one top pitching and position player prospect. The top teams that can afford Stanton’s contract and have the prospects to deal: the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, and Dodgers.

All things considered then, the Dodgers are the early favorites as they are close to Stanton’s home and can offer the Marlins prospects like pitchers Walter Buehler and Julio Arias. Furthermore, they have the monetary means to be able to afford Stanton’s contract. The Yankees are also an intriguing option, as they can offer a package including Gleyber Torres, Chance Adams and Justis Scheffield. Plus, the combination of Stanton and Judge in the lineup has to be enticing to Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

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It should be interesting to see how Stanton and the Marlins approach the Winter Meetings in early December. Until then, every MLB fan will be praying that their team is the lucky franchise to acquire one of the brightest stars in the game.