The NBA Board of Governors approved a proposal on Sept. 28 to drastically alter the odds for teams in its draft lottery, theoretically thwarting any would-be Sam Hinkie copycats from embarking upon a multiyear race to the bottom.
Starting in 2019, the teams that finish with the league’s three worst records each will have a 14.0 percent chance of winning the No. 1 pick, down from 25.0 percent, 19.9 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively. As this graphic from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski shows, there’s a far smaller chance for teams in the league’s basement to land primo picks year after year, whereas those in the mid-lottery range wind up benefiting significantly from the change.
Here is an ESPN graphic on how NBA Draft lottery odds change in 2019 pic.twitter.com/Jk8X7q0J3Z
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) September 28, 2017
Since the new lottery odds won’t go into effect until 2019, teams will have one final shot at tanktastic glory in 2017-18. With the Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers, Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks all embarking upon the beginning stages of a rebuild this season and the Phoenix Suns, Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic mired in perma-mediocrity, the race to the bottom of the NBA standings may be even more captivating than the race to the top.
The league’s revised lottery system won’t eradicate tanking entirely, but it does disincentivize teams from intentionally stripping their rosters of all NBA-caliber talent. Since the team with the third-worst record will soon have equal odds as the team with the worst record, there is no longer a need to intentionally lose 65-plus games anymore. Had the new system been in place this past season, the Los Angeles Lakers wouldn’t have suffered odds-wise by finishing 5-5 in their final 10 games. Instead, they inched past the Suns for the third-worst record, although the lottery gods smiled upon them for their late-season competitiveness and rewarded them with the No. 2 overall pick.
The revised odds may make Chicago, Indiana, Atlanta and New York rethink their respective rebuilding plans, as a Hinkie-esque “Process” is now far less likely to occur. Whereas a team with the worst record can’t finish below the No. 4 pick this coming season, the top four selections will all be drawn via lottery in 2019 and beyond. Lowering the floor for would-be tankers detracts from the appeal of tanking, since truly egregious teams could all but guarantee themselves top-five pick after top-five pick under the current system.
That isn’t the case this coming season, however. Since this is the last year where the current lottery structure will remain in place, teams will have every incentive to tank like they’ve never tanked before.
The Phoenix Suns were the most egregious culprits in that regard last season. Both Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight didn’t play a single minute following the All-Star break. Eric Bledsoe wasn’t far behind that duo with knee soreness that allegedly lingered for more than a month. According to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7, Bledsoe didn’t want to be shut down, but head coach Earl Watson dubbed it a “management decision.”
The Suns, who were well out of the playoff race at the time, halfheartedly attempted to sell their late-season tanking as an evaluation period for its young players. With Bledsoe, Knight and Chandler parked on the bench, guys such as Tyler Ulis and Alan Williams got more run with first-team lineups, allowing Phoenix to see what it had in them. Devin Booker, meanwhile, logged a higher number of possessions as a ball-handler, giving Watson food for thought heading into the offseason about how best to use him.
Along with lottery reform, the NBA Board of Governors also agreed upon a policy to deter teams from resting otherwise healthy players, particularly for nationally televised games or on the road. In theory, those guidelines should prevent teams from embracing full-fledged youth movements (a la the 2016-17 Suns) once they fall out of the postseason picture, as “any team that violates this policy, or otherwise rests a healthy player in circumstances that are prejudicial or detrimental to the league, is subject to discipline by the NBA.” Resting players for “any high-profile, nationally televised game” will “result in a fine of at least $100,000,” which should test the moxie of any owner willing to embrace an all-out tank.
It likely won’t take long for savvy squads to discover loopholes in those new guidelines, though. Kristaps Porzingis could play the first few possessions of a given game and then come down with a “stomach flu”…over each of the final 20 games of the season. (He has to stop trusting that supermarket sushi.) Dennis Schroder could develop a sudden onset hamstring strain during All-Star Weekend that he just can’t quite manage to shake for the final two months of the season. (Wink, wink.) The new rule basically ensures DNP-Rest will be replaced by DNP-Fake Injury, nothing more.
With so many teams starting to rebuild and eyeing the likes of Luka Doncic, Marvin Bagley III, Michael Porter Jr. and DeAndre Ayton atop the 2018 NBA draft class, the stakes to lose are enormous this season. No players intentionally set foot on the court with the mindset to lose at all costs, but coaches and front offices can all but ensure they do. A team can ship out its best player in exchange for prospects and future draft picks — as the Bulls did with Jimmy Butler this offseason — and then refrain from bringing in NBA-caliber talent to surround said prospects.
Have you seen the Bulls’ projected starting lineup this year? After Chicago bought out Dwyane Wade, the likes of Denzel Valentine (who shot 35.4 percent as a rookie) and Justin Holiday (a journeyman who has started 13 career games since 2012-13) will compete for the starting 2-guard spot until Zach LaVine returns from his torn ACL. Kris Dunn, who had a horrendous player efficiency rating of 8.1 during his rookie season in Minnesota, figures to get the nod at the point. Nikola Mirotic, who the Bulls didn’t re-sign until late September, may be the team’s best hope at a go-to scorer at the start of the year.
If that isn’t tanking, what is?
The Knicks will give the Bulls a run for their tanking money, though. Kristaps Porzingis is better than any player on Chicago’s roster, but he’ll now be the No. 1 focus of every team’s scouting report after New York traded Carmelo Anthony to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Enes Kanter, who the Knicks received in return for Anthony, is a turnstile who won’t help the team improve upon its 25th-ranked defense from last season. If rookie point guard Frank Ntilikina struggles, the Knicks will rely on Ron Baker and Ramon Sessions, both of whom would be among the league’s worst starting floor generals. Head coach Jeff Hornacek may as well just give overpaid free-agent signee Tim Hardaway Jr. the green light to fire away 25-plus times per game.
The Pacers and Hawks had the decency to sign a few veterans this offseason — Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic in Indiana, Ersan Ilyasova and Dewayne Dedmon in Atlanta — but each team lacks established depth. One ill-timed injury to Schroder, Victor Oladipo or Myles Turner could send their season off the rails.
In Orlando, meanwhile, the Magic can submarine their 2017-18 campaign by once again shifting Aaron Gordon to the 3 rather than the 4 (his best position). And though the Nets added D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll and Jarrett Allen this offseason, they likely have to trot out Timofey Mozgov as their starting center. Ask the Lakers how well that worked last year.
Next: 25-under-25 -- The best young players in the NBA
No team is likely to finish as low as the 10-win 2015-16 Philadelphia 76ers this season, but a sub-20-win campaign is all but certain for at least one lottery hopeful. Can anyone out-tank the Bulls? How many points will the Knicks hemorrhage per game? Which fake injuries will arise after the All-Star break?
Stay tuned for The NBA: Tanking Never Sleeps.
All statistics via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.