Xavier flipped the switch last March, but can they sustain it for a full season?
When an MRI revealed a torn ACL in point guard Edmond Sumner’s left knee just a few days after he landed awkwardly following a layup attempt against the St. John’s Red Storm, the Xavier Musketeers’ 2016-17 future appeared bleak.
The Musketeers were already in the midst of a rough stretch. They’d lost four of their last six games and Sumner was the only proven lead guard on the roster. A trio of victories pumped a bit of hope back into Xavier’s ballon, but a six game losing streak quickly put its NCAA Tournament hopes in peril.
And then the postseason happened.
A pair of wins in the Big East conference tournament, including a narrow 62-57 victory over the Butler Bulldogs shored up an at-large bid to the Big Dance. Once in the field, the Musketeers took full advantage.
Xavier ripped off a trio of victories before falling to the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Elite Eight. It was the fourth time in Chris Mack’s tenure that the program had made the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament as the Musketeers became just the fourth double-digit seed to make the Elite Eight since 2010, the season Mack took over as head coach.
Xavier’s turnaround was remarkable and is worth examining because of what it might portend for the 2017-18 season. The Musketeers quite literally flipped a switch once postseason play started. They were just one of two Elite Eight teams to post a higher point differential in postseason games than in regular season ones, which is impressive given that the quality of competition in the postseason is generally higher. The below chart shows the change in point differential from the regular season to the postseason (through Elite Eight games) for each team that made the Elite Eight:
If we narrow the sample size a bit for Xavier, accounting only for the games that the team played without Sumner given how significant that injury was, then the team’s turnaround becomes even more remarkable. The Musketeers were a ridiculous 13 points per 100 possessions better in the postseason than they were in regular season games without their starting point guard:
For comparison’s sake, the 2016 Syracuse Orange — a team that most thought shouldn’t even have been in the NCAA Tournament — were a mere 10 points per 100 possessions better in postseason games through the Elite Eight that season. While Syracuse made up most of its improvement on the offensive end, it was Xavier’s defense that helped carry the day last March.
That defense was far from elite, conceding 1.04 points per possession in the postseason, per Hoop Lens. However, opponents shot a full five percentage points worse on 2s against the Musketeers in March when compared to the regular season games they played without Sumner. That interior defense — again, one that is not elite, but sufficient — should be able to carry over this season with the return of senior Sean O’Mara, development from sophomore Tyrique Jones and the addition of graduate transfer Karem Kanter from Wisconsin-Green Bay.
In addition to an overall improved interior defense, Xavier also returns perhaps the country’s top scorer, senior Trevon Bluiett. Last season, the 6-foot-6 wing averaged 21.1 points per 40 minutes on a 57.5 true shooting percentage. He is a proven outside shooter who has made 37.0 percent of his 579 college 3-point attempts. For 2017-18, Bluiett will simultaneously be the Musketeers’ most dangerous ball-handling threat and their most potent off ball scorer.
Mack’s belief in Bluiett’s ability to do both of those things is reflected in numbers showing how the wing was used last season. As a junior, Bluiett saw a massive spike in the number of possessions he used as the pick-and-roll ball-handler and coming off of screens compared to his first two seasons:
Bluiett finished in the 86th percentile nationally as a scorer out of the pick-and-roll and in the 84th percentile coming off of screens, per Synergy, both excellent marks. If the swingman is going to have an even more impressive senior campaign, he’ll need some of the roster’s other offensive threats to deliver at a higher level this season to open up better opportunities for himself.
Much of that burden will fall on sophomore point guard Quentin Goodin. The former 4-star recruit was thrust into an unexpected role when Sumner went down and it doesn’t take much digging to figure out that he wasn’t ready to make a starter-level contribution. Goodin averaged 5.1 points and 3.4 assists per contest and shot just 35.0 percent from the floor.
Compared (admittedly unfairly) to Sumner, the then-freshman guard was a real drop off in terms of his production both in transition and in the pick-and-roll. Of the 736 Division I players to finish more than 50 possessions as the pick-and-roll ball-handler last season, Goodin ranked 719th, just a few spots ahead of teammate J.P. Macura. For Xavier to make significant strides offensively, the 6-foot-4 point guard will need to make significant strides individually in his ability to efficiently create offense.
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Even faced with some looming questions, the Musketeers are beginning to earn some of the deference that is often afforded to only college basketball’s top programs. Mack has proven himself to be one of the sport’s best coaches, evidenced by his frequent appearance on lists of potential replacements when big jobs open, and he’ll have one of the country’s top talents at his disposal next season. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mack and Bluiett celebrating another trip to the second weekend once again come March 2018.