UCLA’s winning ways should continue, but things will look different in 2017-18
For the UCLA Bruins, Lonzo Ball changed everything.
Just one season removed from a sub-.500 campaign that caused head coach Steve Alford to give back a contract extension, Ball led the Bruins to 31 wins and a Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2016-17. The 6-foot-6 point guard’s unselfishness, generational court vision and deep 3-point range helped Alford fundamentally transform UCLA’s offensive package, turning it from nothing special into a trendsetter.
Alford’s goal was to institute the best of what the NBA had to offer as he returned to the principles of the motion offense he learned playing for Bobby Knight at Indiana. In the process, the Bruins’ offense catapulted to No. 2 in the country in terms of adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. Ball’s ability to whip one-handed crosscourt passes that most NBA players couldn’t even dream of served as a catalyst. Out went the pick-and-roll and in came the off-ball movement:
The stylistic changes are present at the top and bottom of each column in the above chart. Most notably, the number of possessions the Bruins finished with off ball actions either coming off screens or cutting to the basket jumped last season while the number of possessions ending in a pick-and-roll declined dramatically. While in 2015-16, 28.8 percent of the team’s offensive possessions were the product of a pick-and-roll, per Synergy. Last season, that number was 12.3 percent, the second lowest mark among major conference teams.
Change, though, is a constant in college basketball. Eligibility requirements make sure rosters cycle every four years and early entry decisions speed up the rotation. Ball has already traded in Pauley Pavilion for the Staples Center while fellow one-and-done freshmen T.J. Leaf and Ike Anigbogu are suiting up for the Indiana Pacers, just a short drive from Alford’s old stomping grounds. UCLA’s senior wings, Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton, are gone, too; their eligibility expired.
The Bruins are staring down replacing a collection of players who scored 71.0 percent of the team’s total points and played 68.8 percent of its total minutes last season.
UCLA’s lone returning starter is 7-footer Thomas Welsh. The rising senior is a terrific complimentary piece on the offensive end because of his ability to stretch the floor into the mid-range as a center. Welsh finished in the 86th percentile nationally in terms of efficiency on long 2s last season, per Synergy, turning him into a dangerous pick-and-pop threat and someone who must be accounted for even when launching the sport’s least efficient shot. As with most bigs who have a decent shooting touch, rumblings have already surfaced suggesting Welsh is extending his range to the 3-point line, which would open up the Bruins’ offense even more.
The centerpiece of said offense seems likely to be UCLA’s other key returnee, junior Aaron Holiday. The 6-foot-1 point guard averaged 18.5 points and 6.6 assists per 40 minutes in a reserve role last season after starting all 32 games during his freshman campaign. Holiday is a dangerous outside shooter and one of the better guards at getting to the rim in the country. He’s also not Lonzo Ball and that raises some questions about where the Bruins’ offense will lean this season.
Holiday’s height is a physical limitation that means he’s not the same off-ball cutting threat Ball was capable of being, but he is a more comfortable creating his own offense. The 6-foot-1 guard finished a significantly higher percentage of his possessions in isolation last season when compared to Ball and ended up scoring out of the pick-and-roll more often than the lottery pick despite playing 300 fewer minutes, per Synergy.
So, will Alford revert back to the way things were and let Holiday pound the rock like Kyrie Irving occasionally did when he was in Cleveland or will he hold the line on his new system while working in ways to take advantage of Holiday’s quickness like Boston did with Isaiah Thomas last season? And in either scenario, will the point guard be able to maintain the high-level finishing at the rim he found as a sophomore when he made 53.9 percent of his 2s? Those questions loom large and will be worth monitoring as the season progresses.
Welsh and Holiday aren’t the team’s only experienced players. G.G. Goloman is back for his senior season while Prince Ali — you might remember him from that time he destroyed Kentucky’s Alex Poythress — returns after missing last year with an injury. A new crop of talented freshmen will help round out the roster. 6-foot-7 Kris Wilkes figures to see significant minutes given the Bruins’ dearth of options at the forward spots and Jaylen Hands should share point guard duties with Holiday. Chris Smith, Cody Riley and Jalen Hill offer some additional depth while even LiAngelo Ball might be called upon some because of his shooting ability.
As this combination of youth and experience seeks out its offensive identity, it should have an opportunity to stake out a more commanding defensive presence than last season’s squad. The Bruins ranked 84th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency in 2016-17, per KenPom, as they struggled to create turnovers and opponents took advantage by bombing 3s at a high percentage. Things should change a bit this season. Where Ball excelled in a sort of free safety role, Holiday should be a pesky defender at the point of attack. Wilkes will provide some extra size at the small forward spot and Goloman is a better defender than Leaf who often found himself out of position against ball screens. UCLA may ultimately not excel defensively, but this roster should be better on that end.
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That’s what will matter for the Bruins. It’s hard to expect them to reproduce last season’s offensive output, whatever system they implement. Everything came together on that end of the floor in 2016-17: a collection of elite shooters, a new free-flowing system and a point guard who could make it all come together. Raising the bar defensively can even things out.
The good news is 2017-18 UCLA doesn’t need to be 2016-17 UCLA. These Bruins can develop their own identity on both ends, evolving into whatever system works best. After all, this changing of the guard is what college basketball is all about.