Digestable previews of all 11 MLS games on the second-to-last weekend of the regular season.
After an extremely disappointing, dispiriting and humiliating week of international soccer, Major League Soccer is back, and we’re here with a big fat preview of the second-to-last regular season week. Maybe this helps you take your mind off what happened on Tuesday.
The run-down on all 11 games this weekend:
Chicago Fire vs. Philadelphia Union
The stakes: Chicago have a shot to pick up a home three points against Philly, who have long been eliminated and have nothing to play for. A win could move the Fire as high as second and a loss could drop them to fifth. With a tough road contest looming against contending Houston on Decision Day, they’ll want to take three now in their quest to overtake NYCFC and Atlanta for second in the conference.
What Chicago have to do: Possess the ball and draw the Union out, with the goal of sending David Accam through and then scoring really ugly goals in front of the net. The Fire are great are playing pretty soccer in the build-up and then putting the ball in the net with the quality of an English side.
What Philly have to do: Stop the above from happening, and get out on the counter with d-mid Haris Medunjanin as the focal point. Give him time and space deep to spray long balls for CJ Sapong to hold or for the wingers to run onto in behind. Also, play some of the young guys.
Who wins: Probably Chicago, being at home and having crucial playoff positioning at stake. Philly did beat the Fire at home three weeks ago, though, and have a nice home win against Seattle last week as well.
New England Revolution vs. NYCFC
The stakes: Like the Fire, NYC are fighting for a top-two spot in the Eastern Conference, which would give them a bye into the conference semifinals. To clinch this weekend, they’d need to beat the already-eliminated Revolution and have Atlanta drop points against the Red Bulls, or they could nab a draw and have Atlanta lose and the Fire drop points.
What NYCFC have to do: Play calmly from the back and learn to break down a heavily-rotational midfield, which the Revs employ and has been NYC’s kryptonite in consistent blowout losses to Toronto. Have Yangel Herrera dominate, because they’re always much better when he’s at his best.
What New England have to do: Actually execute that heavily-rotational diamond midfield, which they often struggle with. Mark David Villa, which is obvious but the Revs’ center-backs have never been great at marking people.
Who wins: NYC. New England could sit back and muck up a draw like they did against TFC a couple weeks back, but I don’t see the Light Blues relenting to that.
New York Red Bulls vs. Atlanta United (Fox Sports 1)
The stakes: NYRB are into the postseason after sweeping aside Vancouver on Saturday, and they now face an uphill battle to overtake Columbus for fifth. Otherwise, they’re just trying to regain cohesion and pin down an identity. Atlanta have more tangible objectives: they’re three points behind NYCFC for second in the conference, and have a legitimate shot of making the comeback. This is likely a knockout round preview, and an extremely intriguing tactical battle.
What NYRB have to do: Get Bradley Wright-Phillips, Sacha Kljestan and Daniel Royer interchanging and pressing to the effect they were before Royer got injured in early August. Be disciplined in pressing a fast-paced-yet-methodical Atlanta attack, although Jesse Marsch has said that the Red Bulls will “be clever a little bit in terms of not showing all our cards.”
What Atlanta have to do: Play their style. Run hard, run a lot and keep the opposition on their toes. Take away passing lanes with consistent and individualistic pressing as well as methodical possession built through devastating runs through the channels. Future Rookie of the Year Julian Gressel, filling in for the injured Miguel Almiron, has five goals and nine assists in 22 starts almost 2,000 minutes.
Who wins: This will be very interesting, especially knowing this will probably be the 3 vs. 6 playoff matchup. I’ll say a draw.
Orlando City SC vs. Columbus Crew SC
The stakes: The Crew could plausibly rise from fifth to third in the conference, although it’s hard to imagine Atlanta dropping enough points for that to happen. That means they’re going for fourth, which would give them home-field advantage against the Fire in the first round. They’re two points back now and have to go to NYC next week. OCSC are out. This is Kaka’s last home game.
What Columbus have to do: Play through Federico Higuain, who has been very good for them of late, and have their attacks originate from higher places. During their quiet eight-game unbeaten run, they’ve become much more pragmatic and learned how to possess the ball higher and thus not consistently pass the ball directly to the opposition in the defensive half. It also has freed Pipa, Justin Meram and newcoming winger Pedro Santos, a trio that dominates the area behind striker Ola Kamara.
What Orlando have to do: Make sure the (futile) Dom Dwyer-Cyle Larin partnership is somehow working up top, and maybe get Kaka to have a good game, possibly as a second striker if Larin starts on the bench again. Outside of that, start Dillon Powers over Antonio Nocerino in defensive midfield. He might be a 2018 solution at the position, while Nocerino decidedly will not.
Who wins: Red-hot Columbus, who will rip apart Orlando’s often-disorganized diamond midfield.
Toronto FC vs. Montreal Impact
The stakes: Not much, obviously aside from the fierce rivalry and some potential Toronto records. TFC need two wins in their last two games to hit 70 points, and one win to hit the coveted 2.0 points per game milestone. Montreal are eliminated and seem ready to clean house in December.
What Toronto have to do: Get Sebastian Giovinco back into prime form and make sure Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley are mentally okay after the unfortunate international events of the past week. If Seba is playing in top form, TFC will cruise to the MLS Cup. Beyond that, I think we all know how they play.
What Montreal have to do: Sit deep and counter and score opportunistic goals. They broke Toronto’s dominant run a few weeks ago with a 5-3 road win that saw them score a ton of Trinidad and Tobago-looking goals. To effectively sit deep, they have to be stout in central defense, which they often are not.
Who wins: With this rivalry, it’s hard to know. I’ll pick TFC though, because it seems likely Giovinco will start.
Colorado Rapids vs. Real Salt Lake
The stakes: For RSL, this game is absolutely crucial. They’re in seventh in the Western Conference, one point behind sixth-place FC Dallas and only ahead of San Jose on goal differential. A loss plus an FCD win over Seattle would eliminate RSL. Colorado, who are trying to avoid dead last, would enjoy playing spoiler against their rival.
What RSL have to do: Get their wingers on the ball and play through Albert Rusnak in the attacking third. Jefferson Savarino is questionable with an ankle injury, so we could get a look at Brooks Lennon as a starting winger opposite Joao Plata, who may have burned all of his bridges with the Ecuadorian national team after breaking curfew before Ecuador’s massive game against Argentina on Tuesday to party with Enner Valencia. He is suspended indefinitely from his national team, and now will have to turn his mind back on for this huge club game.
What Colorado have to do: Lump the ball into Alan Gordon and get the fast guys (Dominique Badji, Marlon Hairston) into space on the counter. Maybe Stefan Aigner can take advantage of a slow-ish RSL central midfield. I have no idea what the Rapids are.
Who wins: I’d bet on RSL, but don’t do that, because who knows. Colorado ruined Montreal’s playoff hopes not long ago, and Salt Lake surely will be wary of that.
Sporting KC vs. Houston Dynamo
The stakes: Sporting need to win to stay alive in the race for top spot in the Western Conference, and they will be desperate to stave off the chase pack looking to overtake the second playoff bye. With a win, not only will the Dynamo officially be in the postseason, but they’ll also leap over SKC and, if other results go their way, all the way into second place, which would be a remarkable turn of events.
What Sporting KC have to do: Get the attack on the same page and effectively push the ball forward. They consistently lack an outlet without Dwyer and Benny Feilhaber, and even if Latif Blessing and Jimmy Medranda are useful pieces, they aren’t focal points, so SKC often lack direction going forward. They also need to finish much better than they did on Wednesday in a 2-1 loss at Houston. Their impressive ability to hit the ball directly at the goalkeeper on every shot is unmatched in MLS.
What Houston have to do: Let Tomas Martinez find the game, then spark goals through 38-year-old livewire Vicente Sanchez. I’m guessing Alberth Elis and Romell Quioto will be given some rest seeing that they were busy crushing my spirits on Tuesday and knowing Wilmer Cabrera’s obsessive squad rotation, so we’ll probably get the Martinez-Sanchez-Manotas show again on Sunday. Not too bad.
Who wins: Sporting, because they don’t lose at home.
LA Galaxy vs. Minnesota United
The stakes: Who’s worse? Both are playing for 2018.
What LA have to do: Get Gio dos Santos on the right track. Next year, they need him to be much more consistent and able to play with whoever they bring on at striker.
What Minnesota have to do: Start Abu Danladi, so we get to see more golazos. Hopefully we’ll get a 90-minute look at Danladi and Christian Ramirez up top, with Kevin Molino out wide. That’d be a promising attack for next year.
Who wins: Minnesota. LA lose at home every time.
Seattle Sounders vs. FC Dallas (Fox Sports 1)
The stakes: Seattle are fourth in the conference on 47 points, one behind second-place SKC, tied with third-place Portland, and one ahead of fifth-place Houston. They’re in contention for second. Dallas could give themselves a big advantage in the race for the red line with a win.
What Seattle have to do: Put Clint Dempsey out there and let him play angry, which presumably he very much is at the current moment. In a more tactical sense, they have to get Nicolas Lodeiro on the ball early in attack and transition quickly into the final third, taking advantage of a potentially vulnerable Dallas midfield maximizing Lodeiro’s abilities.
What FC Dallas have to do: Start Javier Morales as the No. 8. Oscar Pareja has cautiously thrown some stuff on a wall over the past couple weeks (as only Oscar Pareja can) in an attempt to figure out what’s ailing FCD, and what stuck was playing 37-year-old former star RSL creator as a box-to-box distributor.
Who wins: I’ll go with FC Dallas. They suffocate Seattle and grind out a pragmatic 1-0 victory.
Next: The best under-20 player on every MLS team
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. San Jose Earthquakes
The stakes: They’re simple for Whitecaps: a win and they clinch first place in the Western Conference. A tie could also do it, if a bunch of other results go their way. For the Quakes, things are a lot more complicated. They’re in eighth in the conference and need other teams (namely Seattle and Colorado) to help them out in a tight playoff race. Put simply, a win would give them an opportunity to control their own destiny on Decision Day.
What Vancouver have to do: Condense the field, suffocate an aggressive San Jose attack, and find space on the counter. The Whitecaps, as most of us are familiar with by now, like to sit deep, concede possession and force you to beat them through the lines, and that has helped them earn enough results to stay on top of an inconsistent Western Conference top-tier. They should have fun in transition against the “throw numbers forward all the time” Quakes.
What San Jose have to do: Take space through the channels and capitalize on chances. They have to utilize their free-flowing 4-2-4 to create gaps in a tall and tight Vancouver defense, and then negate whatever chances the Caps get on the other end by turning whatever gaps they create into goals. High-risk, high-reward.
Who wins: Vancouver, given how good they are at home, This game feels ready for Cristian Techera goal or two.
Portland Timbers vs. D.C. United
The stakes: Portland are in the Western Conference chase pack, searching for a knockout round bye. They need wins. D.C. United, meanwhile, are in the battle for the Wooden Spoon, given to the league’s last-place team.
What Portland have to do: Keep the attack cohesive and continue with Diego Valeri as second striker. Portland have found success by taking an often-crowded attack and pulling Valeri forward and letting him play off the striker, which has allowed more room and more on-ball opportunities for Sebastian Blanco and Darlington Nagbe (who almost definitely will be rested on Sunday) and has vaulted Valeri to tops in the MVP race.
What D.C. United have to do: Continue to get good looks at the players they acquired in the summer, Part 1 of their big rebuild. Notably, they should be playing Russell Canouse in defensive midfield, not Marcelo Sarvas.
Who wins: Portland. It’s not hard to see the difference between these two. Nobody would put it past D.C. to put two Patrick Mullins goals past Portland, though.