The Casual Basketball Fan's guide to NBA rookies

The Casual Basketball Fan’s guide to NBA rookies

TARRYTOWN, NY - AUGUST 11: Kyle Kuzma #0 of the Los Angeles Lakers poses for a portrait during the 2017 NBA rookie photo shoot on August 11, 2017 at the Madison Square Garden Training Facility in Tarrytown, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /

2 of 5

PHOENIX – FEBRUARY 13: Kevin Durant #35 of the Sophomore team and Michael Beasley #30 of the Rookie team hug during the T-Mobile Rookie Challenge & Youth Jam part of 2009 NBA All-Star Weekend at US Airways Center on February 13, 2009 in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2009 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images) /

Lesson one: Ignore history

If you’ve made here, you are dedicated to becoming a CBF! Please, enjoy the ride.

When it comes to judging rookies, even your team’s HTRs, there is a common ideology among the most passionate NBA fans, or diehards as they are self-described: Rookies tend to struggle their first year or two in the league. The game is fast; the competition is higher; the defense is ferocious; the travel is exhausting; the responsibilities are endless.

Only seven times has a player age 19-20, the common age for HTRs as the NBA rules on eligibility stand, averaged 20 points and played in 60 games. (Ages are based on Feb. 1 Basketball-Reference.com cutoffs.) Of the 135 players to ever play their NBA rookie season within that age group, only 17 had a PER of at least 15, which equates them to an average player. As of this edition of The Casual Basketball Fan’s Guide to Rookies, your HTR has a 12 percent chance of performing as an average-to-above-average player his first season.

History says an HTR won’t be Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James. But there are two issues that distort the concept of history. The first is history is something you have to know to accept. As a CBF, you pride yourself on not knowing the history of the NBA, meaning you don’t subscribe to expected limits on your team’s HTR. Any player can be the best ever because that’s all you know and that’s all you’re searching for.

The second is history says without saying. Your team’s HTR won’t not be the best player of all time. A 12 percent chance of it coming true is a 100 percent reason for why you should expect an HTR to come out the gate as one of the best players in NBA history.

Not only should you root for your HTR without the context of history, you should judge him despite of it. To be an effective CBF, history has to be thrown out, because if you know there’s a chance your HTR can struggle, then what’s the point?

Home/NBA