25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 14 Minnesota Gophers

Led by Reggie Lynch and Nate Mason, Minnesota is ready for a Sweet Sixteen appearance

The Minnesota Golden Gophers’ basketball history books aren’t exactly littered with success stories. The Gophers have only made the Sweet Sixteen four times since the inception of the NCAA Tournament, their last trip coming during a now vacated run to the Final Four back in 1997. Over 20 years later, though, the program is experiencing an emergence that has them positioned as one of the likely candidates to play on the second weekend come next March.

Last season, Minnesota won 24 games, the second highest total for the school during this millennium, and earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament before getting bounced by the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, arguably the top double-digit seed in the field.

Head coach Richard Pitino gets nearly every significant piece from that squad back for 2017-18 save for Akeem Springs who is out of eligibility after a graduate transfer year and sophomore Eric Curry who suffered a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus during a pickup game in August. Having experienced pieces like Nate Mason, Amir Coffey, Jordan Murphy and Reggie Lynch back will be vital for the Gophers.

Lynch is the *ahem* linchpin of a defense that ranked in the top 25 nationally last season, according to KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The 6-foot-10 center transferred to Minnesota, his home-state school, after playing a pair of seasons at Illinois State. Any questions about his ability to influence high major basketball were answered immediately.

The Gophers’ defense jumped from 162nd in the country in 2015-16 in large part because of Lynch’s ability to patrol the painted area. The rising senior averaged 6.0 blocks per 40 minutes and posted a 14.5 percent block rate as the full roster logged the second highest team block rate in the country at 15.9 percent, per KenPom.

The below chart, which shows the relationship between block rate and adjusted defensive efficiency from the 2016-17 season, emphasizes how important erasing shots can be for a defense. Simply follow the red trend line to see that as team block rates go up, the points that team concedes per 100 possessions goes down:

Lynch is a masterful rim protector who can take away high percentage looks from penetrating guards or by holding his ground against the country’s top post players. While he has some problems when it comes to committing fouls, they’re usually the result of overexertion and chasing loose balls rather than contesting shots. In fact, Lynch’s ability to stay vertical and position his body away from making contact with the shooter is impressive:

The 260-pound big man also has no problem holding his own on the low block. Here he is defending Purdue’s Caleb Swanigan last season by using his strength to push him into an awkward angle on the baseline before using his length to turn the shot away:

Lynch’s ability to recover also helps clean up situations in which help defenders get beat. Here, he gives Mason time to fight over a ball screen by staying flat to cut off penetration while Springs rotates over to defend the roll man, Ethan Happ. Once the ball gets to Happ in the post, Lynch is smartly able to recover so he’s there to reject the shot when the Wisconsin man beats the outmatched guard:

That the rest of the Gophers can funnel their man to Lynch likely helps in other ways as well. Lynch’s ability to rotate and challenge players who get into the paint from the perimeter allows Minnesota’s guard to be aggressive challenging 3-point shots, getting hands in faces and running opponents off the line. Offenses attempted just 33.2 percent of their shots from behind the arc against the Gophers last season, connecting on a paltry 30.9 percent of the attempts, per KenPom.  It was the combination of interior defense intimidation and perimeter prowess, both of which can be traced back to Lynch, that led Minnesota one of the top defenses in terms of effective field goal percentage last season. That shouldn’t change in 2017-18.

Although the defense figures to be elite once again, the Gophers do need to find some ways to improve their offensive output. Minnesota’s sets often begin with Mason, the team’s point guard and leading scorer, coming off a ball screen set by Lynch. Mason is quick enough to turn the corner against most bigs and shifty enough to break down a defense, but the Gophers still averaged just 0.862 points per possession (49th percentile) on pick-and-roll actions last season, per Synergy.

The most limiting factor is the team’s lack of shooting, which both takes away a viable pass out option on the perimeter and constricts the spacing inside the arc. Minnesota made just 34.3 percent of its 3s in 2016-17, below the Division I average, per KenPom.

It’s here where the loss of Springs will be felt most prominently. The graduate transfer connected on 38.3 percent of his team high 175 3-point attempts last season. The team made just 9-of-34 (26.5 percent) of its 3s in the two games it played without Springs at the end of last year. Replacing his outside shooting is a problem that will demand a solution lest the Gophers fall off a perilous perch on the offensive end.

The most immediate solution is the one-for-one replacement of Springs with junior Dupree McBrayer who took over the starting role after the senior tore his Achilles against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. McBrayer made 41.6 percent of his 89 attempts as a sophomore, but Minnesota will need someone to fill his role as the secondary option.

One candidate could be Coffey, the former top 50 recruit who made an immediate impact on the wing as a freshman. The 6-foot-8 wing hit just 33.7 percent of his 3s last season, but his relatively high number of 3-point attempts and 75.3 free throw percentage are promising predictors. With 4-star point guard Isaiah Washington in the fold, Pitino could also play some lineups utilizing Mason as an off-ball threat where his 36.0 percent 3-point shooting might help assuage the loss of Springs.

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Even if the offensive improvement never comes to fruition, the Gophers will have their stout defense to rely on to grind out close games a somewhat neutered Big Ten. A year older, Lynch should be able to control his foul troubles a bit more and the aggressive defensive style should continue to do what it did last season.

Of course, Minnesota won’t just be looking to repeat what they accomplished in 2016-17. The Gophers eyes will be on bigger prize, namely challenging the Michigan State Spartans at the top of the league and earning a trip to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in 21 years.