25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 13 Florida Gators

Can Florida’s new look defense sustain success in 2017-18?

Every Monday, college basketball fans across the country eagerly await the release of a pair of top 25 polls. Important questions like, “how far did my favorite team fall after getting upset on the road?” and “how far did we move up after that other team got beat?,” are always answered at 1:00 p.m. ET on Monday afternoons when the Associated Press and USA Today release their top 25 polls.

These polls quickly become fodder in office showdowns and friendly discussions as fans look to one-up opposing fans about whose team is better. They serve as advertising tools for the biggest games of the week and they breed columns about snubs, those who rose and those who fell. Hell, CBS Sports‘ Gary Parrish has even taken to writing a weekly column calling out voters for their ballots. College basketball seems to revolve around polls.

And the truth is, the polls don’t really matter all that much.

The Selection Committee doesn’t scroll through the final polls of the season as it locks down at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. It’s not even clear how useful that would be if it did.

The problem with polls is that every voter has a different methodology and those voters aren’t always the most informed when making their decision — hence the Parrish column. Polling doesn’t often reflect the play on the court either. Several analytic measures have been developed to evaluate team quality and they often disagree with the current order of the top 25.

Case in point, the No. 13 team in our top 25 poll, the Florida Gators.

(Note: Yes, we realize the irony of complaining about polls while writing a poll. We’ll get through it together.)

Last season, the Gators entered the NCAA Tournament ranked No. 20 in the AP poll and No. 17 in the Coaches’ Poll. They had lost three of their last four games, once away at Kentucky and twice to a Vanderbilt team desperate for wins. Yet, they were still the No. 9 team over at KenPom because a trio of away defeats — their loss to the Commodores in the SEC Tournament happened in Nashville — don’t define a season of success. Florida entered the NCAAs as a No. 4 seed, more reflective of their poll ranking than the advanced metrics, and put together a run to the Elite Eight where a red-hot South Carolina squad sent them packing.

The Gators were one of several analytics darlings last season, their production metrics regularly outpacing their polling, but to repeat that feat in 2017-18, things are going to have to change in Gainesville.

Starting with Dorian Finney-Smith and continuing with Devin Robinson, in recent seasons, Florida has made a living playing smaller lineups that spread defenses out with plenty of 3-point shooting and offer impressive switchability on the other end. The first part of that shouldn’t be a problem this season — the Gators should be loaded offensively — but things on the defensive end might get a bit more awkward.

Several key pieces from a defense that ranked 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency last season are no longer on the roster. Kasey Hill, a strong point of attack defender, and big wing Justin Leon are gone to graduation while Robinson entered the NBA a season early. Chris Chiozza and KeVaughn Allen should be able to handle things in the backcourt but losing a pair of versatile 6-foot-8 wings matters.

Head coach Mike White’s rotation decision tree will feature plenty of options for the two forward spots. Sophomore Keith Stone spent his time largely playing power forward as a freshman, but at 245 pounds, he’s doesn’t have the same perimeter mobility of combo forwards like Leon and Robinson. A slew of freshman options, including DeAundrae Ballard, Chase Johnson and Isaiah Stokes could also earn minutes at the forward spots. White trusted Allen to be one of the team’s guards as a freshman, but it’s hard to anticipate just how productive any of those three would be in significant minutes.

The most likely pairing, though, will be a pair of transfers. Jalen Hudson joined the team a year ago from Virginia Tech while Egor Koulechov is a graduate transfer from Rice who committed over the summer. Hudson and Koulechov are 6-foot-6 and 6-foot-5, respectively, which means that Florida will likely be sacrificing significant perimeter length if it goes to its smaller look this season.

That could reduce the team’s ability to switch, take away some of the swarming length-based defense that worked last season and hurt the Gators on the defensive boards. The last point, in particular, sticks out as it was one of their few defensive weaknesses last season. None of Florida’s big men are great defensive rebounders and with John Egbunu and Gorjok Gak still recovering from injuries, Kevarrius Hayes will be the lone center on the roster for a bit. The 6-foot-9 big man posted a defensive rebound rate of 15.4 percent last season, 0.1 percent higher than 6-foot-5 Miami guard Bruce Brown.

Koulechov may ultimately provide the solution to any potential rebounding woes. He grabbed 10.4 boards per 40 minutes playing as a small ball power forward last season, but we’ll need to track whether he can keep those numbers up outside of Conference USA.

Next: Defense is the key for the Minnesota Golden Gophers

The good news is that a lineup featuring Chiozza, Allen, Hudson, Koulechov and Hayes should be terrific offensively. Chiozza and Allen are both capable of breaking down defenses off the dribble and finishing at the rim while Hudson and Koulechov can space the floor. Expect Allen to lead the team in scoring once again and Koulechov to pick up some of the points per game lost with the graduation of Canyon Barry (but please don’t expect him to shoot 47.4 percent from 3-point range again).

Some early statistical projections like the Gators to be an analytics darling once again in 2017-18. In general, it makes sense. Florida should have one of the country’s most potent five-man lineups on the offensive end and its defense may not be impacted as much by the size concerns outlined above. However, if the transition for Koulechov isn’t seamless or Egbunu doesn’t return to his old form when he gets back on the court, the Gators could be due for a bit of a dip. That’s why they find themselves here at No. 13 in the FanSided top 25.

Take it with a grain of salt, though. After all, this is just a poll and those don’t really matter.