DraftKings NBA Picks October 18: Should You Roll With Kyrie Again?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks October 18
The NBA season begins nearly in full tonight with 20 teams active in the main DraftKings tournament. As last night showed us, value can still be found this early in the season. Where am I looking tonight? Let’s find out!
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The money line from opening night was at 266.5. I had one lineup miss the money by one point. The other was in at 273.5. Let’s aim for 300 tonight!
The winning lineup was a good 341.25. Two players split the prize. They hit big with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, not to mention good value with Nick Young and P.J. Tucker.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Damian Lillard ($10,200): With C.J. McCollum suspended, that opens up the floor for much more production from Lillard. This is a guard-heavy team anyway. Take McCollum out of the equation and Lillard should be shooting more than normally and still dishing out double digit assists. He looks worth the price against the up-tempo Suns.
John Wall ($9,800): Wall racked up a 51.1 DraftKings point average in three games against Philadelphia last year. The 76ers promise to be a bit of a different team this year, but they are still young. It is unreasonable to expect Fultz to be able to guard Wall right off the bat. Wall could have a big game tonight, and is a great pivot off of Lillard.
Honorable Mention:
Kyrie Irving ($8,500): Irving had a nice Beantown debut last night. With Gordon Hayward facing a possible season-ending injury in the first quarter last night, Irving will be leaned on even more in the early going. Milwaukee can be a handful, but Irving posted 44.3 DraftKings points per game in four meetings with them last year. That is near 5.5x value if he can do it tonight as well.
Elfrid Payton ($7,100): For whatever reason, Payton was able to do well against the Heat last year. Payton averaged 35.6 DraftKings points in four games against the Heat, which was five points per game more than he averaged against everyone else. Payton improved a lot down the stretch last year. Now it is up to him to take that next step for the Magic.
Ricky Rubio ($7,000): Rubio’s shot looked much better in the preseason than last year, which against leaves us hope that he can become a DFS monster. He is one of the best passers and foul shooters in the league. If his jumper is falling, this price is a bargain.
Dark Horses:
Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,800): Smith is likely going to start with Seth Curry still out. The ceiling is high for Smith, but Atlanta is a solid team. Still, if you are rolling with a rookie on opening night, I would prefer Smith to Markelle Fultz simply because Philadelphia has a ton of backcourt options. They could go any number of ways. It seems very apparent that Smith will play more than 30 minutes a game for Dallas.
Tyler Johnson ($4,800): Johnson doesn’t start, but he scores. A lot. He racked up 34.1 DraftKings points per game in four outings against Orlando last year. There is a lot of uncertainty in this tier, and many wont use a bench player in DFS because they aren’t guaranteed anything. Johnson is the exception. He is the scorer for the Heat’s second unit, and Goran Dragic is not a lock to spend 30 minutes on the court.
Ish Smith ($4,100): This is a volatile fantasy situation in Detroit, but it’s hard to ignore that the team ran much more smoothly with Ish in the game than Reggie Jackson. This is not an uncommon theme. It happened fairly often last year as well. At some point, Smith will force the Pistons’ hand. If Jackson struggles early, Smith will see more minutes. There is risk involved here though.
My picks: Wall(PG), Rubio(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($10,200): The Kings allowed the most fantasy points to off guards last year. Harden took advantage with a 52.6 DraftKings point average against them. Harden picked up over 50 last night against the Warriors, so he is picking up right where he left of. If you are looking for a stud, you know what you are getting from Harden.
Jimmy Butler ($8,100): I would by lying if I said that I wasn’t a little nervous about Butler in a new environment. First off, he is playing the Spurs, who shut him down last year. Second, there are a lot of mouths that need feeding in Minneapolis. However, Butler was locked down by the Spurs because he was the only consistent player for the Bulls last year. Don’t expect a huge game from him tonight, but 5x value at this price is likely.
Honorable Mention:
Devin Booker ($7,000): Booker became a very capable scorer last year with Eric Bledsoe out. Can he keep that role up with Bledsoe back and with Tyler Ulis also fighting for minutes? I think he can, but just be aware that if Booker is cold, he has no chance of hitting value. His 33.4 DraftKings points average in five games against the Blazers last year isn’t enough.
Bradley Beal ($7,000): Booker has higher upside, but Beal is the safer bet. Beal averaged 39.8 DraftKings points against the Sixers last year. The Sixers are better than last year, and Jodie Meeks could also cut into Beal’s time, but he is more likely to give you value than Booker. However, he isn’t capable of dropping 50 like Booker is.
Victor Oladipo ($6,800): Oladipo’s pit stop in Oklahoma City stunted his growth as a player. He should be closer to the Orlando version in Indy, especially against the Nets. Oladipo racked up 74.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Nets last year. That would put him well above 5x value, and he has more upside with the Pacers.
Dark Horses:
Khris Middleton ($6,400): MIddleton looks ready to go. He likely wont score as much as he did last year for this incarnation of the Bucks, but he can contribute in every category. That leaves him with a lower ceiling, but a high floor. However, his ceiling isn’t so low that he can’t hit at least 6x this value against Boston.
Kent Bazemore ($5,600): Bazemore racked up 20 points against the Mavs a week ago in the preseason. I know that doesn’t mean a lot for tonight, but the Hawks will still lean on him heavily. Bazemore is one of the more accomplished scorers they have. He will be heavily used at a low price. Count me in!
Eric Gordon ($4,800): Remember what I said earlier about the Kings and off guards? This applies to Gordon as well, and he is super cheap. He also poured in 24 points last night, so you know he will remain a big part of the game plan.
My pick: Gordon(SG); Butler(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bet:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,300): You can use Giannis at the point if you prefer, but I like him here due to the thin nature at the top with Kawhi Leonard out. Antetokounmpo is a matchup nightmare for any team, and the fact that Boston lost Gordon Hayward already leaves them thin and young already. Giannis may have the highest ceiling of the high priced players, but his floor is also lower.
Ben Simmons ($7,100): Simmons is already the odds-on favorite for rookie of the year. He could have some growing pains, especially against a solid Washington defense, but with the dearth of options at the top here, Simmons is at least worth a look.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,000): Some are sour on Wiggins because of the arrival of Jimmy Butler. I kind of am too, but with a price this low, Wiggins has a great chance to hit value. While Wiggins is mostly a scorer, he contributes across the board . If you aren’t paying for Giannis and don’t trust the rookie, Wiggins is a solid veteran fallback due to his price point.
Dario Saric ($5,700): It remains to be seen how much and where Saric will play, but one thing is clear: he is going to be relied upon to score wherever he ends up. I think he plays enough to get to the 29.8 DraftKings point average he flashed against the Wizards last year.
Tobias Harris ($5,600): Harris came into his own last year. The Pistons shook up the roster around him a bit, but Harris is still going to be one of the best offensive options they have. Harris racked up 34.2 DraftKings points per game in the five meeting with Charlotte last year. Don’t be surprised if he outdoes that tonight.
Dark Horses:
Rudy Gay ($5,500): Gay is going to get all of the minutes that he can handle with Kawhi Leonard out. For one game at least, Gay will have a chance to put up numbers reminiscent of his days with the Grizzlies. Tonight is the night to cash in on his bargain price.
Evan Fournier ($5,100): Fournier doesn’t have much of a ceiling, but he was a lock for at least 25 DraftKings points a game last year. He averaged 33.1 in four games against the Heat. Expect Fournier to be right around 6x value.
Jaylen Brown ($3,900): The injury to Gordon Hayward leaves Brown with a whole lot of minutes to absorb. Brown racked up 25 points and six rebounds with Hayward out last night. He is going to obliterate value tonight. Brown will be a chalk play, but I will find my separation elsewhere.
My pick: Gay(SF), Harris(F), Brown(G); Gay(PF), Harris(UTIL), Simmons(SF), Brown(G)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000): Anthony Davis struggled against Memphis last year at full strength. The fact that he is a bit under the weather only affirms that I am fading Davis. Cousins, however, feasted on the smaller Marc Gasol last year, racking up 49.6 DraftKings points per game in his four contests. With Davis ineffective and/or sick, Cousins could have a big night!
Nikola Jokic ($9,100): Jokic so impressed Denver last year that they shipped Jusuf Nurkic out and let Jokic run wild in the paint. I’m a bit curious to see how this plays out with Millsap in town. Honestly, Millsap is less of a risk due to his much lower price point, but he could struggle against the Utah bigs.
Honorable Mention:
Aaron Gordon ($6,900): Gordon really took off when the Magic started using him as a stretch four option. It plays to his strengths. Many view this as a true breakout season for Gordon, and he is still very affordable. I like his upside here, but it isn’t without risk. He only got 28.1 DraftKings points per game against the Heat last year.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,900): Cauley-Stein closed his season strong last year, and looks to build on that even more. While he likely will not start, WCS is the primary backup in the frontcourt and could feast off of the Rockets’ backups. The price is right to roll the dice here.
Derrick Favors ($5,500): Favors’ breakout season was derailed last year by nagging injuries and ineffectiveness. With Enes Kanter gone, Favors could see more run. He picked up 29.75 DraftKings points in his only game against Denver last year. Favors looks like a lock for 5x value tonight.
Dark Horse:
Marquese Chriss ($5,100): Chriss will look to parlay his strong preseason into a breakout regular season. He has established himself as a scorer, and has the ability to block and rebound on the interior. Chriss averaged 20.2 DraftKings points in 21.5 minutes in five outings against Portland last year. He should get more run tonight, and has a high ceiling for someone priced this low.
Josh Jackson ($4,900): Jackson may have been the most impressive rookie in the league in preseason. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time, but he should get solid run off the bench. If the preseason is any indicator, Jackson could have a larger role on this team than expected. T.J. Warren is blocking him right now, but I tend to think Jackson is the better player and it’s only a matter of time before he’s starting.
Jayson Tatum ($4,100): The rookie played very well in his Boston debut, and should far outperform his price point again tonight. He likely won’t hit 30 DraftKings points against a strong Bucks front, but 6x value is well with reach.
My pick: Chriss(PF); Jackson(F)
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): Towns performed well against the Spurs last season, picking up 47.1 DraftKings points per game in four contests. Towns may not be as prolific of a scorer with Jimmy Butler around, but he does enough of everything else to make him easily the best center on the board tonight.
Hassan Whiteside ($8,400): Whiteside dominated the undersized Magic last season, and should again this year. Whiteside averaged 48.9 DraftKings points in his four games against Orlando last year, making him the most intriguing option at any position in this price range.
Honorable Mention:
Marc Gasol ($7,800): Gasol may have struggled to contain Boogie last year, but he still averaged 46.8 DraftKings points in four matchups with the Pelicans. Gasol is a strong bargain tonight for those of you looking to avoid the high ownership of Whitesid.e
Myles Turner ($7,700): Like many of his colleagues, Turner put up good numbers against the Nets last season. He put up 152 DraftKings points in four games, which puts him right around 5x value. Turner isn’t as consistent as Gasol, but he definitely has more upside.
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond is the best rebounder in the league right now, which always gives him a high floor. If he could shoot free throws, Drummond would be an elite DFS play.
Dark Horses:
Joel Embiid (7,300): I know that Embiid was an absolute monster when Philly turned him loose last year and that Washington struggled to defend the interior. There is risk involved, but Embiid could have a huge night.
Marcin Gortat ($5,200): Gortat will never stuff a stat sheet, but he is one of the most consistent producers in the league. He is a lock for somewhere between 5 and 6 times value. If you are loking for some stability in the lineup, Gortat is your answer.
My pick: Whiteside(C); Gasol(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with ESPN college pick em picks!