DraftKings NBA Picks October 19: Is Westbrook still worth his outrageous price?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks October 19
Thursday night is a light night on DraftKings with only six teams in action for the main DraftKings tournament. We get our first look at the new-look Thunder tonight, and there could be value to be found in the dysfunctional Bulls and rebuilding Knicks.
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The money line last night was up to 277. One lineup finished in the money at 290.75 despite a strong start being ruined by Marquese Chriss. The other finished out of the money due to subpar nights from Rudy Gay and Josh Jackson.
The winning lineup was up a chunk as well to 368.75. He got strong value from Clint Capela and Thaddeus Young to go with Giannis, Oladipo, Gortat, and Tobias Harris.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,000): It would be foolish to expect Westbrook to duplicate the ridiculous numbers that he put up last year. He averaged a staggering 66.2 DraftKings points per game! He has plenty of other weapons on the court with him now, so I expect Westbrook’s scoring to take a hit. However, he is an outstanding rebounder for the position, and he is still a great passer. 55 DraftKings points in not impossible, especially against the Knicks.
Kyle Lowry ($7,900): Lowry averaged 49.3 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls last year. The Bulls are even worse this year, so Lowry should be able to far exceed his price point tonight. He may even get close to Westbrook’s production at a far lower price!
Honorable Mention:
Lonzo Ball ($6,800): Rookies always pose a risk, but a rookie who starts is significantly less of a risk. Ball did miss all but two games of the preseason with an ankle injury though, so keep an eye on that. If Ball were to miss this game because of the ankle, Jordan Clarkson would be a very nice play.
Jerian Grant ($5,300): With Kris Dunn out, Grant will play until he passes out. The Bulls are going to give him heavy minutes in this one, and though Grant had a hard time finding value last year, this year should be different. The Bulls don’t have nearly as many options around Grant, so he should do a little more scoring on his own. This is a great chance to buy in on him on the ground floor.
Dark Horses:
Lou Williams ($5,000): Williams destroyed the Lakers last year in the game he played against them after his trade to Houston. LouWill racked up 53.5 DraftKings points in that one. That may not happen tonight, but Williams will see plenty of run until Milos Teodosic is ready to take over full time. As far as that goes, Teodosic isn’t a bad idea at his price either.
Ramon Sessions ($4,100): With Frank Ntilikina likely to be limited in the opener, it is expected that Sessions will start at point. He isn’t a great option against Westbrook, but he is a cheap option. It wont take much for Sessions to make value, so he is a suitable punt play.
My picks: Lowry(PG), Williams(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bet:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): DeRozan chewed up the Bulls pretty good last year. He averaged 50.5 DraftKings points per game against them in three tries. With the Bulls even worse without Wade and Butler there to play defense, DeRozan should shred them again. He could be an elite producer without the elite price tag.
Honorable Mention:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,800): Hardaway is about the only thing resembling a perimeter shooter that the Knicks have, so he should get a very heavy workload this season. The Thunder are an ominous matchup, but 30 DraftKings points should be doable with the amount of opportunities Hardaway will get in this game.
Dark Horses:
Austin Rivers ($4,600): Rivers will likely start, but we know that Lou Williams will eat a lot of minutes off the bench. Whether that comes at the expense of Rivers or Patrick Beverley reminas to be seen. However, Rivers is an accomplished scorer as well, so he should get plenty of opportunities to hit value for his low price.
Andre Roberson ($3,700): Roberson is mostly a defensive specialist, but he has the ability to score if needed. With the defense having to key on several weapons this year, I expect Roberson to see a few more shot attempts. His strong defense gives him a good floor, which is hard to find at this price.
My pick: DeRozan(SG), Roberson(UTIL)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Paul George ($8,100): No one really knows what to expect from the new triumvirate in Oklahoma City, but George scored no less than 15 points in any preseason contest. It appears as though his volume is the most safe aside from Westbrook. George contributes enough in other ways to make sure he hits value, but anyone in Oklahoma City is a bit of a risk right now.
Danilo Gallinari ($6,200): Gallinari may not get as many shots as he did in Denver sharing a court with Blake Griffin, LouWill, and Austin Rivers. That is the only thing holding me back from a full endorsement here. However, the Clippers will likely ride whomever is hot, meaning Gallinari should have enough chances initially with a chance at more if he is hitting shots.
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Ingram ($5,100): Ingram flourished after the Lakers’ fire sale last winter, and picked up right where he left off in the preseason. He was the second overall pick last year for a reason. This year I think we find out exactly the reason. Ingram will be given plenty of run on a young team that is going to run others ragged. I see Ingram having a really good 2017-18 debut.
Denzel Valentine ($4,900): Valentine failed to parlay his great summer league showing last season into his rookie year, but a large part of that is the fault of the team itself and not Valentine. The Bulls are still a dumpster fire, but Valentine looks to be the phoenix rising from those ashes. He is going to be a strong contributor if the preseason is any indicator. It could start at soon as opening night.
Dark Horses:
Kyle Kuzma ($4,800): Kuzma isn’t starting, but that may not mean much on this team. The Lakers have taken a page from the Sixers book and loaded up on players that can play anywhere on the court. Kuzma isn’t quite that, but he could fit everywhere but point and center due to his versatile skill set. Here is another rookie that could contribute from the very beginning.
Michael Beasley ($3,900): Beastley was back in full form in preseason. Can he carry that over into the regular season? His only competition for minutes is sharpshooter Doug McDermott. Beasley should get a lot of run while the Knicks are trying to figure out just what the hell to do with this roster. Beasley is a very strong punt play in GPP formats.
My pick: George(SF), Beasley(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Blake Griffin ($9,600): Griffin may have some trouble tangling with the young Lakers tonight, but it’s hard to ignore how good Blake has been when healthy. Griffin was a force with Chris Paul out in the last three years. Let’s see how he does with him gone for good. Griffin should absorb a lot of those extra scoring opportunities.
Carmelo Anthony ($7,200): Normally I wouldn’t consider Melo because I consider him the third option in Oklahoma City. However, Anthony is yet another player that is pitted against their former team to open the season. Melo is going to want to stick it to New York. Not the players on the team – they are just collateral damage – but to the front office for the way they handled him. Revenge is a powerful motivator. Just ask Lou Williams.
Honorable Mention:
Julius Randle ($5,800): Is it just me, or does the entire Lakers roster look underpriced? Randle wil have the roughest go of it tangling against Griffin, but Ranlle averaged 29 DraftKings points in 28 minutes per game in four outing against Griffin last year. He should have no problems hitting value again tonight.
Lauri Markkanen ($5,600): Bobby Portis is suspended for punching out Nikola Mirotic in practice. Mirotic is going to miss at least a month with facial fractures, so Portis got off light with just eight games. Markkanen finds himself the starter now with very little behind him. The rookie is going to get extended run, and he is still priced to buy.
Dark Horses:
Serge Ibaka ($5,400): Ibaka isn’t going to return to his Oklahoma City form anytime soon, but he is still an outstanding defender and capable rebounder, which gives him a solid floor. Ibaka wont be a major part on offense anytime soon which limits his ceiling, but he is one of the more sure things at this price range. That said, I prefer him more in cash games.
Cristiano Felicio ($4,000): Felicio should see a large increase in minutes with Mirotic and Portis out due to his ability to play the four. Rookie Lauri Markkanen is far from a sure thing. I would guess that Felicio sees at least 20 minutes, which should be more than enough time for him to hit 5x value.
My pick: Markkanen(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,700): His status for tonight is murky, but if Porzingis is in the lineup, I like him against the Thunder. Porzingis picked up 70.5 DraftKings points in 71 minutes against the Thunder last season. Expect similar production tonight if he starts.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,500): Jordan racked up a 39 DraftKings point average in 31 minutes per game in four games against the Lakers last year. The addition of Lopez may help the interior defense some, but Jordan’s elite rebounding make him a safe pick. However, he does lack the upside of a healthy Porzingis.
Honorable Mention:
Brook Lopez ($6,500): Lopez likely wont be as big of an offensive piece as he was with the Nets last year, but he does enough around the rim to give him value regardless. BroLo torched the Clippers for 50.5 DraftKings points in his only game against them last season. It would be foolish to suggest something like that again, but 6x value is on the table.
Steven Adams ($5,700): Adams is a nice defensive compliment to the new stars on the Thunder. He wont have the role in the offense that he did last year, but Adams could be even better defensively. Like Ibaka, Adams lacks significant upside leaving him better suited for cash games.
Dark Horses:
Robin Lopez ($5,200): The Bulls are a barren wasteland, but as we saw with the Sixers, Knicks, and Nets last year, that can lead to great things in DFS. Lopez is the only established veteran right now, and the Bulls will look for him to help carry the offensive load. That should mean a huge increase in output for Lopez.
Jonas Valanciunas ($4,800): The arrival of Ibaka last year did cut into his playing time some, but with Patrick Patterson gone, Valanciunas will have ample opportunity to keep his minutes up. I trust him a lot more than I trust either Kanter or Willy Hernangomez in New York. They are going to cannibalize each other’s value until one emerges as the true starter.
My pick: Jordan(C)
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