25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 11 Miami Hurricanes

Miami’s Bruce Brown might break out this season, or he might not, but either way the Hurricanes should still be awfully good

Finding a true breakout player in college basketball is always tough to do. Often times, those who would be worthy of such a title are simply the beneficiaries of increased opportunities opened up by the departure of an upperclassman or an NBA Draft pick. They are players who were already good, but just needed the chance to show it.

Bruce Brown might be the exception. Or, he might not be.

Predicting breakout stars is a difficult process. It requires finding someone who was sufficiently outside of the mainstream’s consciousness capable of putting up gaudy numbers when placed in the right situation.

Brown almost certainly fits the first part of the profile. The Miami Hurricanes’ guard spent much of his freshman season under the radar despite averaging 11.8 points, 5.6 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. When Brown announced he was returning to the school for another campaign rather than testing the NBA Draft waters, reactions were muted compared to similar proclamations by Robert Williams and Miles Bridges.

Of course, Brown wasn’t a potential lottery pick, but he’d been good enough as a 20-year-old freshman to be a possible first rounder. At 6-foot-5 with long arms and a mature frame, he fits the mold of what NBA teams are looking for in a shooting guard. Brown is a tenacious defender who can switch onto both smaller and larger players, is a plus outside shooter in spot-up situations and has some equity as a secondary creator.

Brown also has the potential to put up the gaudy statistics if things break right for him because of how the Hurricanes play.

In particular, Miami’s offense is built around its ball-handlers. In 2016-17, 33.7 percent of the team’s offense was derived from pick-and-roll actions, the 13th highest mark in Division I and the third highest percentage among major conference teams, per Synergy.

The Hurricanes frequently start their possessions with two players stationed in the corners. One of the bigs, likely either Dewan Huell or Anthony Lawrence this season, will set a ball screen at the top of the key or on the side of the floor for Brown or point guard Ja’Quan Newton. In some cases, both frontcourt players will position themselves in a Horns set at the top of the key. From there, the guards take over, either attacking off the screen downhill to make a play or turning it down to get the defense off balance.

It’s in these moments where Brown could prove to be one of the breakout stars of the 2017-18 season. An explosive athlete off of one or two feet, the 6-foot-5 guard is like a bowling ball when he gets a head of steam. Brown isn’t exceptionally shifty like some other smalls, but he does have a nice in-and-out dribble and his power makes him a threat to beat just about any defender with his first step, especially when a big switches onto him:

Brown’s problem is that he wasn’t particularly efficient in these situations last season, averaging just 0.737 points per possession (48th percentile), per Synergy.

Two related problems stick out. The first is that he struggles when opposing big men show on the screen and let the defending guard recover. Brown has a tendency to dribble himself into trouble, often losing the ball and contributing to his 18.2 percent turnover rate. The reason teams can defend him that way is the second problem. Brown struggles immensely to shoot it off the dribble. As a freshman, he ranked in the 4th percentile nationally at just 0.324 points per possession on those shots, per Synergy. He has virtually no ability to take advantage of the space the defense gives him in the mid-range by pulling up for a jumper.

When he’s set, though, Brown is a perfectly capable shooter. Although he made just 34.7 percent of his 3s last season, slightly below the Division I average, the rising sophomore looks good shooting from a standstill. Brown averaged 1.300 points per possession (85th percentile) on spot-up jumpers as a freshman. His release takes some warm-up time and that might be what contributes to making his off the dribble shot so much worse. If Brown combines his solid spot-up shooting with improved efficiency out of the pick-and-roll, his points per game numbers — and with it his national profile — should rise.

The limiting factor of this three-part equation may turn out to be the situation Brown finds himself in at Miami, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing for the Hurricanes. Head coach Jim Larranaga has assembled what should be one of the nation’s top backcourts despite Davon Reed’s departure.

Brown will be joined by last season’s running mate, Newton, and 5-star guard prospect Lonnie Walker. Last season, Brown, Newton and Reed essentially played “your turn, my turn” with Miami’s offensive possessions, alternating initiating out of the pick-and-roll. That probably won’t change much this season given Walker’s talent as a slasher. Newton will also likely continue to act as the team’s primary ball-handler, in large part because that’s what he’s always done, but also out of necessity.

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Newton is the worst shooter of the trio. He made just 27.5 percent of his 40 3-point attempts last season while Walker was a 40.0 percent shooter on over five attempts per game in two seasons of Nike EYBL play. Plopping Newton in the corner gives defenses someone to sag off of, but with Brown and Walker spacing the floor, there will be less freedom for opposing teams.

Given Brown’s profile among draftniks, he’s an easy target for the breakout label. High-level athletes with excellent physical tools, nice court vision and the ability to create offense are great picks to experience growth between their freshman and sophomore seasons. The 6-foot-5 guard won’t be much different if he’s given the opportunity. The problem, of course, is that Brown doesn’t operate in a vacuum and for the Hurricanes to be at their best, they’ll need he, Newton and Walker to all be productive. It’s that trio that has them ranked No. 11 here, breakout season from Brown or not.