What you need to know about the final day of MLS’ regular season.
The format of MLS’ regular season finale, branded as Decision Day, makes for one frantic two hours on a Sunday afternoon that determines the final playoff picture. Eleven games will be played at the same time from 4-6 p.m. ET this Sunday, eight of which have real, serious playoff implications. It’ll be madness.
We’re here to preview it all, from the ludicrous race for the Western Conference’s sixth playoff spot to the Battle of the Elites out east to the razor-thin clash at the top of the Wild West. Instead of watching the Giants, Bengals, 49ers and Chargers get wrecked by superior NFL teams on Sunday, immerse yourself in an overwhelming shower of extremely competitive soccer.
Here’s everything you need to know:
Five things to watch
The Battle of Possession in New York
The elite group of MLS teams with a real, established tactical identity is not large. I’d count just six clubs that fit the criteria, so when two of those meet, it is usually a must-watch. We have two such matches this weekend, one of which will be played at a backup baseball stadium in New York.
New York City FC will host the Columbus Crew at Citi Field in a crucial Eastern Conference battle doubling as Columbus’s first game since news leaked that crappy owner Anthony Precourt is considering relocating the storied MLS original to Austin (#SaveTheCrew). Both clubs have made a name for themselves by consistently building from the back, a rare insistence on possession in a league often dominated more by athletic ability than finesse. Not only are they are fun to watch and play pretty soccer, both are actually good teams.
Columbus are unbeaten in nine and could, with a win and other favorable results, move all the way from fifth to second in the conference. NYC are currently second and could stay there with a draw. High stakes, and everyone should be glad it will not be played on a restrictive narrow field.
The Battle of Big Titans in Atlanta
The other matchup of “established tactical identity” teams will take place in Atlanta, and will feature Best Team in MLS History Toronto FC (who are prepping for the postseason after clinching the Supporters’ Shield in late September) against the always-entertaining Atlanta United in front of the biggest crowd in the league’s history at Mercedes Benz Stadium. Atlanta are in fourth, two behind NYC, one behind Chicago and one ahead of the Crew, so they have a ton to play for.
TFC obviously do not, other than freshness and confidence. They probably will put out something close to a first-choice XI (as they did in last week’s win), and all we can hope is that we will watch a product even close to as fun as these two teams’ 2-2 draw on April 8, which is one of the year’s best games.
We’ll see Atlanta push numbers forward and attack down the left, building around exceptionally-talented passer Yamil Asad and exploiting Justin Morrow’s attacking exploits. Tata Martino will presumably throw a lot at Toronto while also keeping some cards close to his chest before the postseason. It’ll be an intriguing tactical battle, and presumably high-scoring.
Another edition of attack vs. Vancouver defense
The Vancouver Whitecaps, entering last week with an opportunity to clinch first place in the conference, somehow failed to beat San Jose at home, preserving Portland’s chances of overtaking them and setting a marquee Decision Day matchup. With a home win over the ‘Caps this week, the Timbers would steal first-place and potentially knock Vancouver all the way down to third if Seattle can take three at home against the submissive Rapids.
As has become the norm with Whitecaps’ matches, this will be a CONCACAF-y attack vs. defense kind of matchup, with the visitors sitting deep and conceding possession to Portland, who will have to break down these tall banks of four to pick up the necessary three points. What should worry Vancouver supporters is that the Timbers will be much more qualified to accomplish this task than excessively-disorganized San Jose and goal-averse Sporting KC, who did everything they possibly could to not score in a 1-0 loss to the Whitecaps two weeks ago.
Portland have a not-so-secret weapon who happens to be pretty good at creating goals from tight spaces: some guy named Diego Valeri, who will in all likelihood win the MVP barring some out-of-this-world David Villa heroics. Valeri has made a living off working in the half-spaces between the opposition’s midfield and backline, excelling in combination play and expertly utilizing a skilled (if occasionally inconsistent) front three. He’s only added to his ridiculous scoring tally with No. 9 Fanendo Adi out, scoring nine goals and adding three assists in the nine games since Adi went down.
Expect the camera to be panned over to ‘Caps keeper Stefan Marinovic for an inordinate amount of time due to the possession Portland will keep in the attacking half. This is how Vancouver play, and it has required significant luck to get to this point. Sunday will be a nice test for the ‘Caps in their most important game of the season.
Who wants to take a guess at Wilmer Cabrera’s lineup?
One of the top storylines over the last few weeks of the MLS season has been Tata Martino’s squad management in Atlanta, and his unwillingness to rotate his lineups despite a grueling, heavy-volume schedule. It likely caused Miguel Almiron’s hamstring issue and Greg Garza’s knock, and it put injury-prone striker Josef Martinez and the rest of the regular starters in unnecessary danger of injury.
Quietly, as the Houston Dynamo have slowly fallen and then risen back up again, Wilmer Cabrera has been the subject of the opposite sort of criticism. The first-year Dynamo manager has been obsessively rotating his team to the point where nobody has a clue what Houston’s first-choice lineup is, not in a Jurgen Klinsmann tinkering sort of way but in a personnel sense, where only a select few have reserved their spots.
Alberth Elis, Romell Quioto, Cubo Torres, Mauro Manotas, Vicente Sanchez, Tomas Martinez, Andrew Wenger and Alex have all played significant roles in various attacking positions over the past few weeks. That’s a lot of players. It’s bizarre.
Houston play host to the Fire having officially clinched a playoff berth but looking at a scenario where they could go all the way up to third if results go their way. Chicago are in a dogfight for second in the east and also have a lot to play for. At least the Fire have a core lineup they can turn to and trust that it is their best possible group.
Saying goodbye to RFK Stadium
The last ever MLS game at storied RFK Stadium will take place on Sunday, with D.C. United hosting the rival New York Red Bulls. RFK was an original MLS venue, the site of the league’s first true organized supporters groups and genuine supporters culture. It has hosted top-tier soccer since the 1960s, seeing Pele, Johan Cruyff, Ronaldinho and David Beckham grace the hallowed grass formerly the stomping grounds of Super Bowl-winning Redskins teams. It hosted a men’s and a women’s World Cup as well as 1996 Olympics matches and Washington Senators baseball in the ‘60s.
It is iconic in MLS lore, as detailed in this MLSSoccer.com piece. Even if the arrival of soccer-specific Audi Field next year is much-needed for DCU, it is hard to see this consistent USMNT host go.
The Red Bulls have nothing to play for, as they are locked into sixth in the conference and D.C. are only trying to avoid finishing last-place in the league. So plenty of time for nostalgia.
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Five key players
Brooks Lennon (Real Salt Lake)
Last week, Real Salt Lake went into the week knowing that a win or even a draw at Colorado would give them the opportunity to control their destiny this Sunday. But they got bodied by Alan Gordon three minutes in and then spent the next 87 minutes looking like they had no clue how to attack the conference’s 10th-place team in the biggest game of their season. They lost 1-0, and now need a home win over Sporting KC to have some chance at leaping over FC Dallas and San Jose.
With star attacker Jefferson Savarino going down for the season a couple weeks ago, Brooks Lennon has taken on a bigger role as a consistent starting winger. RSL need to figure out how to attack with Savarino, and that starts with Lennon, who has been good in a limited role this season.
Vako Qazaishvili (San Jose Earthquakes)
It could be argued that San Jose are in the best position of any of the three teams out west looking to grab that final spot. They get to host Minnesota United this week and hold the tiebreaker over FC Dallas, so despite their -22 goal differential, they are in pole position to nab a playoff spot over a team with -4.
They still have to get the job done against an improving Minnesota side, though, and that starts with their interchanging front four. Vako is a big part of that, playing as something of an attacking midfielder underneath striker Danny Hoesen and slimy dribbler Jahmir Hyka.
Djordje Mihailovic (Chicago Fire)
The rookie 18-year-old Homegrown midfielder Mihailovic has played a big role for Chicago of late, starting their last three games with Bastian Schweinsteiger battling old person knocks and playing well as a box-to-box No. 8. He passes efficiently and covers ground well for the Fire, who will be without Schweinsteiger again this weekend and need at least a point at Houston.
Javier Morales (FC Dallas)
FC Dallas have a good shot to steal a postseason berth on Sunday despite their precipitous nose-dive since the beginning of August. If Minnesota can steal points at San Jose and Dallas are able to do their job at home against a feisty-if-still-terrible LA Galaxy side, they’re in.
Passiveness throughout the team — but especially in the midfield — has been one of their primary problems, and that puts Morales, who has found some level of success recently as a No. 8, under the microscope. They need better passing and more assertive distribution than they got last week when they went to Seattle and got ripped 4-0.
Whoever plays d-mid for the Sounders
Depth in defensive midfield was a mostly unrealized problem in Seattle for years, as Ozzie Alonso played 90 every week as fans worried what would happen if he went down. That problem was solved just in time for Alonso to finally break, as Swedish do-it-all Gustav Svensson has been very good filling in for the often-injured Cuban. But last Sunday, Svensson picked up a hamstring injury in the 23rd-minute and now appears to be out this week for the Sounders’ home game against Colorado.
I’m not sure who the third-stringer is. Most likely, box-to-box CM Cristian Roldan will have to try his hand at the position, considering the lack of literally anybody else on the roster. Seattle have a shot at a knockout round bye and would prefer not to be scrambling to fill one of the most important positions on the field.