The Houston Dynamo face Sporting Kansas City in the MLS Cup Playoffs knockout round on Thursday, Oct. 26. Here’s what to expect.
After Sporting Kansas City blew it at Real Salt Lake on Decision Day and the Houston Dynamo did the job at home against Chicago, the Dynamo jumped into fourth in the Western Conference, giving them a home playoff game and their third matchup against SKC since Oct. 11, this time in a knockout round postseason contest on Thursday.
Lineups
Houston Dynamo:
It’s very hard to know exactly how this will look. Wilmer Cabrera likes to rotate his lineups, and it’s possible this is (personnel-wise) far off. But my best guess is a 4-3-3 with Tyler Deric in goal behind a backline of DaMarcus Beasley, Leonardo, Adolfo Machado and Jalil Anibaba, who replaces AJ DeLaGarza, the starting right-back who tore his ACL on Sunday.
Juan David Cabezas anchors a midfield also featuring Alex and Tomas Martinez behind a front three of Romell Quioto, Mauro Manotas and Alberth Elis. Picking Alex over Ricardo Clark as the No. 8 may not be what Cabrera decides, but it’s probably the best option. Clark, Andrew Wenger, Erick Torres, Vicente Sanchez and Eric Alexander also could feature.
Sporting KC:
For SKC, things are a bit clearer. They’ll also play a 4-3-3, with Andrew Dykstra continuing to start in place of injured Goalkeeper of the Year favorite Tim Melia. Seth Sinovic, Ike Opara, Matt Besler and Graham Zusi make up the league’s best backline, and Illie Sanchez is the defensive midfielder behind scrappy No. 8 Roger Espinoza and possibly-injury-hampered creator Benny Feilhaber.
The front three seems likely to include Latif Blessing, Dom Dwyer replacement Diego Rubio and DP Gerso Fernandes.
How the Dynamo will play
Playing at BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston have a defined structure and identity that has allowed them to assemble one of the league’s best home records. On the road, they quickly transform into the Hot Mess Express. So those Decision Day results are huge for them, because if they had had to play away, they probably would have had a hard time putting themselves together.
The Dynamo play out of their base 4-3-3 and concede possession to the opponent, with the goal of hitting teams on the counter through Elis and then setting up chances in the box for their squadron of attackers, which thrives on constant movement in the channels. They like to put the ball in the box so one of those attackers — often Elis, who is good in the air, Manotas, a clever mover, or Martinez, who is tough to track coming out of the midfield — can eventually get behind a defender and score.
Mainly, they create chances based around their speedster wingers running fast and getting into space. The simplest example of this is their second goal against Chicago, which provides a perfect blueprint for how the Dynamo score goals:
Houston will also dominate on set pieces. They scored 16 goals from them (not including penalties) this season, most in the league, and they’ll boss you in the air with workhorse center-back Machado and his partner, Leonardo. This is a scrappy team, one that’s more skilled and aggressive than Vancouver but similar in the way they’ve built themselves.
How Sporting will play
Ideally, Sporting would like to play their high line, let Illie boss the game from defensive midfield and attack through turnovers and individual talent. At their first-place best, they use their dominant backline to create chances, a “defense is the best offense” outlook. But over the past few weeks, they’ve started to get lazier at the back and seen whatever attack they had almost completely disappear, to the point where they have plummeted from first in the West to fifth.
They’ll keep possession and work hard in midfield, trying to create quick offense and give their front three ample opportunity to get in behind. SKC’s backline of Sinovic, Besler, Opara and Zusi is athletic, cautious and acts as a brick wall, stopping the ball efficiently and using Illie to prevent balls from getting in behind.
With Melia out, goalkeeper becomes a crucial position for Sporting. He gave up 24 goals in 30.5 games, and Dykstra has given up five in 3.5 matches. That’s a clear difference.
The key for SKC is getting some production from their front three. They have to actually finish the chances they get, and they have to get Gerso going from the wing. When he’s on, he lives up to his Designated Player standards, but when he’s not (which is most of the time), he can become inefficient and invisible.
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What to expect
Most likely a scrappy game featuring a good helping of counter-attacks and fast players running into space. Houston should be favored, being at home, although SKC could muck things up for 90 minutes and then break a scoreless tie open in extra-time, as was their formula in the U.S. Open Cup against FC Dallas.
Prediction: I’ll go with the Dynamo by a score of 2-0, one goal by Quioto on the counter and another by Machado on a set piece. Espinoza will get a yellow card and the referee will have a lot to do.