DraftKings NBA Picks October 27: Is Aaron Gordon Good Enough To Build Around?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks October 27
We are down to seven games for our main DraftKings tournament on Friday night, which is light for a Friday. Just a friendly reminder that the classic tournaments on DraftKings are NOT late swap. This will become all the more important once the season gets into the second half, but it is important to realize that early on. Their late swap tournaments are very small, which really takes the fun out of it.
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The money line last night was up a little to 279 DraftKings points. My lineup with Giannis and Boogie just missed the money, and it was all because of James Ennis.
The winning lineup was down a bit to 357 DraftKings points. He had Cousins with Marc Gasol and Al Horford to maximize the beasts at center. He also got great value from Mike Muscala and Denzel Valentine.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,400): Westbrook racked up 72.5 DraftKings points in a high scoring game against the Pacers. It came mostly at the expense of Paul George. Of course, Paul George isn’t going to foul out every night, but the Timberwolves are the worst team in the league for allowing fantasy points to point guards. You can see where this is going. Westbrook looks like an elite play again tonight.
Stephen Curry ($8,900): I’m not going to sit here and tell you to fade Harden or Wall, though I will say that both of them are under 5x value on the season. Harden is just a shade above 4x! More often than not, you aren’t getting what you pay for with them. Curry is a different story. He has averaged 5.4x value even at this price, his highest of the season. He is a solid play against Washington again tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Kemba Walker ($7,800): Walker has failed to hit value in all but one game this year, but I have faith in him taking on the Chris Paul-less Rockets. The Rockets have struggled to defend the point this season with Paul out. And it’s not like Walker has been way under value. His average is still 4.6x on the season. He should top 5x tonight.
Lonzo Ball ($7,000): Ball continues to play solid ball running the point for the Lakers. He is less likely to be a huge value at this price, and he is still a rookie, so the potential is always there for an off night. Toronto is on the top third of the league defending the point, so don’t expect huge things from Ball tonight.
Dark Horses:
D.J. Augustin ($5,700): There will be a lot of people going cheap at the point tonight, but if you get creative, you can use a stud and both Augustin and Dinwiddie at the point. Both are not quite the bargains that they were before this giant price jump, but they are still great bets to hit value. If I only get to choose one, I’m going Dinwiddie though.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,200): D’Angelo Russell is listed as doubtful for tonight, so Dinwiddie looks like a very strong play again. The Knicks are second worst defending the point. I don’t know if Dinwiddie will top 40 DraftKings points again, but I would bet he hits at least 6x value.
Ramon Sessions ($4,400): Sessions has racked up 50 DraftKings points over the last two games. That puts him at a touch over 6x value. Sessions should get plenty of run again tonight with Frank Ntilkina still nursing a sore knee. Whereas Augustin and Dinwiddie could be highly owned, you may see Sessions check in with a little smaller ownership number.
My picks: Augustin(PG), Dinwiddie(G); Curry(PG), Dinwiddie(SG), Sessions(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($8,100): DeRozan has a tasty matchup against the Lakers tonight. He should be well over his illness as shown by his 47.25 DraftKings points against the Warriors on Wednesday. DeRozan has the potential for another game like that against the young Lakers. I would trust his output a little more than Harden just because Charlotte is a decent perimeter team.
Bradley Beal ($7,500): We just saw DeRozan torch the Warriors two nights ago. Beal has been on a hot streak to begin the season anyway, averaging 5.6x value. He could conceivably hit 6x tonight against a Warriors team that has been lit up by off guards this year.
Honorable Mention:
Eric Gordon ($6,900): Gordon has been lighting up the scoreboard starting alongside Harden with Curry out. He has 56 points, eight rebounds, and 12 assists over the last two games. Expect another solid outing from Gordon for his price tonight, even against Charlotte.
Evan Fournier ($6,100): Klay Thompson is far too inconsistent on a night to night basis for me to trust. I will admit that I have missed out on some good games from him, but I have also missed out on some real clunkers. The only exception is when he plays the Kings. Fournier is a much safer option in the same price range. He has been on fire to start the season, pouring in points at 6.3x his price. Play him with confidence!
Dark Horses:
Kent Bazemore ($5,400): Bazemore turned in another solid night with Dennis Schroder out. Schroder was targeting tonight as a return, so keep an eye on his status. If he plays in any capacity, I am out on Bazemore and Delaney. I am out on Schroder too. I don’t know how much I trust that ankle for someone who relies on it so heavily.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,100): KCP has been huge for the Lakers so far, racking up 63 DraftKings points in his two games. That puts him at an impressive 6.7x value! He may find the going a little tougher against Toronto tonight, but for the way he is outplaying his price, I still see KCP coming in close to 6x value.
Jamal Murray ($4,500): Murray started slow this year, but he has played 62 minutes over the last two games and responded with 51 DraftKings points. If he sees around 25 minutes, he is a lock for at least 5x value. Murray will be a bargain hunter’s favorite against the rebuilding Hawks.
My pick: Beal(SG), Fournier(SF); N/A
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($9,400): Durant is one of the few stars that is averaging more than 5x value so far on the season. Durant has also been very consistent. He has not had a game below 40 DraftKings points. That gives him a pretty nice floor to stand on with decent upside.
Paul George ($7,700): George had an awful night on Wednesday, but that was just because he fouled out. George still shot well from the field, he just wasn’t on the court much. I am hoping this helps keep the ownership down. George could end up being a solid play tonight with pretty low ownership.
Honorable Mention:
Otto Porter ($6,700): Porter was finally held somewhat in check by the Lakers on Wednesday. He should find the going a bit easier against the Warriors. Of course, that largely depends on whether he draws Durant or Draymond. You can likely do better for around the same price tonight.
Jeremy Lamb ($5,700): Lamb is putting up solid stats with Nicolas Batum out. Lamb is mostly a shooter, which does limit his value some, but he is averaging right about 5x value on the season. So long as Batum remains sidelined, Lamb is a solid play with some upside.
Dark Horses:
DeMarre Carroll ($5,500): Carroll has been a strong and consistent producer for the Nets early on. He has not been under 5x value yet. Hell, he hasn’t even been under 6x yet! Here, he is still one of the cheaper SF options out there. Carroll is a great play at the F spot, or if you need to save in your starting lineup to afford a stud.
Danny Green ($5,400): Only the Bulls have managed to keep Green under 5x value so far. When Kawhi is in the lineup, Green is more of an afterthought. With Leonard out though, Green has proven that he can still be a major contributor if need be. He is a strong play at this price point, and hasn’t been very highly owned.
My pick: Carroll(F); Porter(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,500): Porzingis still has some growing pains against strong defenses. He wont have to worry about that tonight against Brooklyn. The Nets aren’t that great on the interior, especially with Brook Lopez out west. Porzingis is in line for a strong game here and could also have lower ownership because of Tuesday’s dud.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,200): Fade LMA at your own risk. Aldridge has averaged 5.5x value with Kawhi Leonard out, and has gone over that in all but one game. The only team that held him under was Toronto. Orlando isn’t going to be able to hold him down either.
Honorable Mention:
Draymond Green ($7,400): The same caveat always applies to Draymond. He lacks significant upside. However, he has a high floor, and can put up the occasional 50 DraftKings point game. I like him more in the mid-7k range that up in the eights. I’m okay with taking great, solid production here and sacrificing some upside.
Aaron Gordon ($6,800): Gordon has been outstanding in the early going. His 7.2x value is by far the best mark in the league. That will change once his price starts catching up to his production. For this price, he should be in every lineup. I know that you want to avoid high ownership, but find your separation elsewhere. You need this kind of production at this low of a price to cash.
Dark Horses:
Larry Nance Jr. ($5,000): Nance has been starting in place of Randle and his sore ribs. At the rate Nance is going, Randle may not get that job back anytime soon. The Pelicans forced him into a bad game, but every other game, Nance has been a strong play. With Randle still hanging around the 20 minute mark, Nance is the most sure thing of the Lakers forwards, though he doesn’t have quite the upside of Kuzma or Randle.
Julius Randle ($4,900): We know what Randle is capable of when given a full compliment of minutes. His price was was up in the low $8,000’s last season at times. What we don’t know is just how many minutes Randle will get. The Lakers don’t want to rush Randle, and with the way Kuzma and Nance are playing they wont have to. However, it stands to reason that Randle would keep getting between 20-25 minutes. He has hit 5x value in the last two games. He could be an interesting punt play just for the high potential.
Tarik Black ($3,500): Black has racked up 39.75 DraftKings points in his first two outings of the year despite playing just 25 minutes combined. Black may have a hard time coming across consistent minutes, but if he is going to play like that, he should get on the court more often. That could make Black a sneaky value play, but there is plenty of risk involved.
My pick: Gordon(PF); Aldridge(PF), Gordon(F); Black(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,600): Statistically, this would be a game to fade Towns. However, the big man racked up 46 DraftKings points on the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Sunday. There is a strong possibility that he does at least that at home.
Dwight Howard ($7,100): Howard is averaging nearly 18 rebounds per game in the early going. His former team is not bad up front, but they aren’t exactly great rebounders either. As long as Howard is rebounding like this, he has a great floor. Howard has at least 6x value in every game so far.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Vucevic ($6,900): Vucevic has been a force up front for the Magic in the early going, averaging two blocks and two and a half steals to go with his nightly double-double. Pau Gasol has never been known for his strong defense, so expect Vucevic to rebound nicely from his lackluster performance against the Nets earlier this week.
Steven Adams ($6,000): There are a lot of options in this price range, but I go with Adams because Lopez draws what has been a strong Toronto front. Capela also has a subpar matchup with Charlotte. Enter Adams, who has 85 DraftKings points over the last two games. One of those just happened to be against tonight’s opponent, the Timberwolves.
Enes Kanter ($5,900): Kanter has racked up 33 points and 29 rebounds over his last two games. The Knicks’ frontcourt situation is still kind of in flux, but it seems as though Kanter will be given most of the minutes until he proves he shouldn’t. Willy Hernangomez and O’Quinn will continue to fight over the scraps.
Dark Horses:
Jakob Poeltl ($5,300): Poeltl was solid as part of the starting five with both Noguiera and Valanciunas out of the lineup. Both are questionable again with ankle issues. Even if only one of them is out, I still like Poeltl tonight. He is the only truly healthy one of the bunch beside Ibaka.
Frank Kaminsky ($5,100): Kaminsky is playing very well with Cody Zeller out. He will have a little tougher time with Houston tonight, but his skill set is diverse enough for him to still hit 5x value. He has in every game that Zeller has missed so far.
My pick: Adams(C), Howard(UTIL); Adams(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with ESPN college pick em picks!