The Vancouver Whitecaps face the Seattle Sounders in MLS Cup conference semifinals on Sunday. Here’s what to expect.
Sunday night in Vancouver is the stage for the first matchup of four MLS Cup playoffs two-leg conference semifinals. The third-seed Whitecaps played on Wednesday at BC Place in the knockout round and beat the Earthquakes 5-0. Their opponent, second-seeded Seattle Sounders, are well-rested after securing a bye last week with a relatively easy jaunt past Colorado.
The rundown
This aggregate series is a showdown between two types of Western Conference contenders: the flashy-but-inconsistent defending champs, filled with talent, flair and expectations but also uncertainty; and the scrappy, possession-averse, aerially-dominant up-and-comers, taking advantage of the Western Conference hierarchy beating each other up en route to a late season push that almost saw them take the conference.
Can you guess which is which?
Seattle, who were supposed to hammer clubs into the ground with an attacking core of Jordan Morris, Clint Dempsey and Nicolas Lodeiro, suffered a very real case of championship hangover early in the season and just barely squeezed into a bye despite various on-field flaws. They oftentimes struggle to turn midfield possession into scoring chances, and have to get better at effectively connecting in the final third.
Without Dempsey due to a red card suspension and Morris due to a hamstring strain, how the Sounders use Lodeiro’s excessive ball possession becomes very important, and their season-long issue of generating chances both in transition and from possession will be magnified. Against a park-the-bus-and-avoid-the-ball Vancouver team, they’ll have all sorts of opportunities to exercise their demons on the British Columbia turf.
Over the past few weeks, though, they’ve been much better about cutting out unnecessary glamour from their attack and simplifying their approach, winning their final two games of the season by a combined 7-0 and, on Sept. 27, thoroughly squashing this Whitecaps team at home by a score of 3-0. Lodeiro has three goals and three assists in their last four games, including a goal and two assists against the ‘Caps.
Vancouver entered the season on the opposite end of the expectations spectrum. Most observers (including your’s truly) had them as Western Conference cannon fodder. The talent on their roster doesn’t jump off the page, and they had no real identity or plan. But they just kept grinding out results and keeping themselves above water; by August, they had a bunch of games in hand and a stretch of six of seven at home. They took five wins and two draws in the seven games between Aug. 19 and Sept. 23, elevating them far away from the red line and all the way to the top of the conference.
Nobody will call them the league’s most entertaining team, but the Whitecaps know what they do and they execute it well. They’ll forego possession almost entirely and rely on the redwood forest they employ down the spine to form a wall of clearances and headers. On the break, they are deadly, led by best XI-caliber Peruvian Yordy Reyna and clever attackers Christian Bolanos and free-kick Picasso Cristian Techera.
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Matchup to watch
Kendall Waston vs. Chad Marshall on set pieces
One of the big reasons for the Whitecaps’ run is their success on set pieces. Center-back Kendall Waston is a central part of that, with his unmatched brilliance in the air and miraculous ability to poach goals more effectively than striker Fredy Montero. Chad Marshall is Seattle’s answer to Waston. The 33-year-old veteran is always assigned to mark the opponent’s biggest target in the box, and no doubt he’ll be responsible for Waston.
Three important questions
— How do Vancouver deal with Joevin Jones?
Overlapping renegade Joevin Jones is one of MLS’ most effective left-backs going forward, and while he has had some off-field conflicts this season and will be leaving for Germany this winter, he’s a huge part of the Sounders’ attack. He creates overloads down his left side, something San Jose struggled to do on Wednesday. If he’s able to pull Vancouver’s central midfielders out to deal with those overloads, Lodeiro and, in the second leg, Dempsey will have opportunities to hit those gaps.
— Can Cristian Roldan play as a No. 6?
Losing starting defensive midfielder Ozzie Alonso (one of the best in the league, and a core contributor for Seattle since 2009) and then backup Gustav Svensson to injury is pretty devastating for the Sounders, who have never been without a top-tier No. 6 in their MLS history. Cristian Roldan has been one of the top No. 8s in the league this season, but whether he can be a championship-caliber No. 6 has yet to be seen.
— Will Carl Robinson rotate his XI?
With a quick Wednesday-Sunday turnaround, it might make sense for the Whitecaps to put out a fresher starting lineup. Alphonso Davies should be getting some minutes in these playoff games anyway.
Prediction
Seattle take the series with a road draw and then a statement home win. Dempsey scores at least one goal in the second-leg, playing angry off the USMNT disappointment.