25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 5 Michigan State Spartans
By Chris Stone
Despite a preseason top five ranking, Michigan State still has plenty to prove.
When Miles Bridges’ head met the hardwood at the Breslin Center last Thursday night during the Michigan State Spartans’ exhibition contest against the Ferris State Bulldogs, there was an audible and unified “OHH!” from the home crowd.
The 6-foot-7 sophomore, a near surefire future lottery pick, suffered little more than a gash above his right eye, but the collective moment of fear shared by the Michigan State fans in attendance and those watching at home on TV was the ultimate expression of just how important Bridges is to the Spartans’ national title hopes this season.
The 19-year old surprised most people when he decided to return to school without even testing the NBA Draft waters last spring. In 2016-17, Bridges became just the second high major freshman in the last 25 years to average 16.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists on a better than 57.0 true shooting percentage. The other player to do it, Ben Simmons, was a No. 1 pick. Although Bridges wasn’t projected to go as high as Simmons, he certainly left money on the table returning to school.
Now, though, he’ll have a chance to make a run at a national championship alongside the rest of the top five recruiting class head coach Tom Izzo welcomed in last fall. Bridges slimmed down about 15 pounds during the offseason in preparation for a move to small forward as the Spartans project to have one of the deepest frontcourts in the nation for 2017-18.
Last season, Bridges played nearly exclusively as a small ball power forward, dominating opposing big men with his quickness to the tune of 0.962 points per possession (80th percentile) in isolation, per Synergy. His shooting — he made 38.9 percent of his 3-point attempts — also gave Michigan State’s offense more space to operate. With Bridges moving to small forward and two big men on the floor, things are set to look a bit different.
And that’s ultimately why the Spartans aren’t ranked higher. We’re talking about a team that finished 20-15 in 2016-17, got trounced by 20 points in the second round of the NCAA Tournament and is transitioning its best player to a new position where the numbers from last season suggest he might struggle a bit to start. We need to see it work to know it’ll work.
The move to small forward for Bridges means learning new defensive schemes and rotations. Instead of guarding the screener in pick-and-roll actions, he’ll likely be defending the ball-handler, for example. He’ll be drawn away from the basket rather than tasked with protecting it so frequently. It also means new offensive responsibilities.
If the exhibition game against Ferris State is any guide, Bridges is going to get the opportunity to run more pick-and-roll himself this season. He struggled in those actions as a freshman, averaging 0.741 points per possession (48th percentile) on 27 plays as the ball-handler, per Synergy. On five of the 13 plays where he passed out of a pick-and-roll, he turned it over. Part of the problem is that while Bridges has been an adept spot up shooter, his off the dribble game is a struggle. He averaged just 0.514 points per possession (14th percentile) on jumpers off the bounce last season, per Synergy. If he can’t make opponents pay for ducking under the screen, it’ll constrict the floor even further than it might already be with a couple of other bigs on the court. Again, it’s not that Bridges can’t necessarily do these things, it’s that we haven’t seen him do them successfully yet.
The floor-spacing saving grace could come in the form of 6-foot-11 freshman Jaren Jackson Jr., a 5-star prospect who should eventually work his way into starter minutes alongside sophomore Nick Ward in the frontcourt. Although Jackson launched zero 3s during the Ferris State exhibition, his high school tape shows he’s capable of inverting the floor. He made 41.6 percent of his 3s during Nike EYBL play in the summer of 2016 while hoisting 6.4 attempts per 40 minutes. If Izzo grows comfortable with his big man launching from deep, it would open things up quite a bit for the rest of the offense.
Jackson also looks like a game-changer on the defensive end for the Spartans who ranked 37th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, per KenPom. He blocked eight shots against the Bulldogs last Thursday, flashing impressive rotations, quick close out speed and a 7-foot-4 wingspan:
A frontline of Bridges, Jackson and Ward should have no problem deterring opposing offenses from challenging Michigan State inside the paint.
The other inflection point for the Spartans in 2017-18 will be the play of their points guards. Sophomore Cassius Winston seems likely to start over senior Lourawls “Tum Tum” Nairn, but both players will need to reign in the turnovers for Michigan State’s offense to succeed. Last season, Winston and Nairn each turned it over on greater than 23.0 percent of their possessions. However, Winston has flashed plenty of potential as a play-maker despite the flubs. He finished 2016-17 ranked second nationally in assist rate at 46.7 percent, per KenPom. The 6-foot tall point guard frequently displays crafty passes like this smooth lefty dump off to Nick Ward from last Thursday:
If Winston can clean up his decision-making, he could be poised for a major sophomore leap that would help propel the Spartans into position to live up to expectations.
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This feels like a lot of “ifs” for a team ranked in the preseason top five: if Bridges can handle the move to small forward, if Jackson plays starter minutes and is allowed to space the floor and if the point guards can control their turnovers.
Yet, at some point, you just have to respect the overall talent level that Michigan State is expected to put on the floor this season. The Spartans’ roster is littered with young guys one step away from being extremely potent college players. That they’ll all be able to put it together this season is what Michigan State is betting on.