Toronto FC face New York Red Bulls in the MLS Cup Playoffs conference semifinals on Monday. Here’s what to expect.
Toronto FC’s quest to secure an MLS Cup and capture the title of MLS’ best ever team starts in Harrison, New Jersey against the New York Red Bulls, who humiliated and exposed the Chicago Fire on the road in the knockout round. It’ll be a battle between two established teams with a reliance on pressing and two managers willing to innovate and adapt.
The rundown
TFC are as close to a perfect team as this league has seen in its history. Let’s go through their strengths one by one, because there are just so many:
- Alex Bono has grown into a top seven keeper in the league, at least. He’s capable of playing the ball with his feet and is actually pretty good at dealing with crosses, qualities not often found in MLS goalies. Just for good measure, TFC have one of the league’s best backup keepers in Clint Irwin.
- Center-back Chris Mavinga was a successful addition this summer, and he along with steady veteran Drew Moor and one of Eriq Zavaleta and Nick Hagglund has formed a three-man backline that can distribute effectively and cover the extended amount of ground necessary in Toronto’s 3-5-2.
- Somehow, they have three of the best full-backs in MLS, all of which play wing-back. Justin Morrow is the top left-back and a real contender for Defender of the Year — if you even consider him a defender. Morrow has eight goals this season, provides valuable width for TFC’s high-press and diversified attack, and will feast on mistakes at the back-post. He’s balanced by the duo of Steven Beitashour and Nicolas Hasler at right wing-back. It’s unclear which starts on Monday, but both are very capable.
- Michael Bradley is the best defensive midfielder in MLS, straight up. He should make the league best XI for sure.
- The deep central midfield duo of Bradley and Marky Delgado is so, so good. They distribute really well, play a ton of defense, cover ground to free the attack, and provide quality support when TFC have possession in the final third. One could nitpick and say they can be beat when they turn the ball over, but that’s about the only negative thing you could say about them.
- Victor Vazquez’s final third distribution is underrated in all of this, despite his eight goals and 16 assists in the regular season, and Newcomer of the Year candidacy. He adds another element to the Sebastian Giovinco-Jozy Altidore attack, with his ability to pass through the lines and make late runs behind the two strikers.
- Clearly, Giovinco and Altidore form the deadliest forward tandem in the league today, and possibly in history. Altidore’s holdup play and physicality allows the Atomic Ant to play all over the place underneath him, running at defenders, chipping in beautiful passes and firing lasers from distance. Oh, and Seba’s the best free-kick taker in the world right now.
- They will high-press you to death, with coordinated stepping and retreating and the ability to hit hard and fast in transition. Similar to the peak Jesse Marsch Red Bulls in 2015, they have an uncanny ability to cover every spot on the field at all times.
- Greg Vanney is a clever and calculated manager who can out-coach anybody and make adjustments in-game. Tosaint Ricketts is a super-sub who could make a crucial difference in a close game.
Did I miss anything?
The Red Bulls can’t come close to that, but they’re playing well right now and could, theoretically, possibly, maybe knock off the giants.
They also play a three-at-the-back, albeit a 3-3-3-1 instead of a 3-5-2. Against the Fire, NYRB went out hard and fast and suffocated Chicago’s possession, creating quick opportunities as a result and finishing them en route a 4-0 obliteration. It’s fair to say that one of the main reasons they were able to beat the three-seed was Marsch’s superior tactics to Veljko Paunovic’s.
The Marsch vs. Vanney managerial dynamic is what makes this series as appetizing as it is.
Matchup to watch
Tyler Adams vs. Justin Morrow
Adams, a right wing-back, is one of NYRB’s most important players. The 18-year-old plays a sort of cover corner position, getting up and down the right flank and providing important overlaps. He feasted on Chicago’s talented left-back Brandon Vincent on Wednesday. Morrow is also an important player, and he’ll spend much more time going forward. This head-to-head is very intriguing.
Three important questions
Can Aaron Long handle Jozy Altidore?
The short and immediate answer to this question is no. But if the Red Bulls’ best center-back can at least somewhat control Altidore, NYRB will have a shot at also limiting some of Giovinco’s influence. Long will have to be up to the task physically, far from an easy ask.
Could Giovinco’s free-kicks be the difference?
Seba is a record-breaking free-kick scorer. He curled one bar-down in Atlanta last week and has contributed significantly to a number of wins this season with beautiful direct free-kicks. Anything within about 30 yards is fair game, so it’s fair to wonder if they could end up being the ultimate difference. Even just knowing how scared NYRB will be of conceding fouls in dangerous areas could prove a noticeable advantage for TFC.
How will Felipe hold up as a lone No. 6?
NYRB like to start workhorse agitator Felipe as their defensive midfielder, relying on help from wing-backs Adams and Kemar Lawrence and wingers Sean Davis and Daniel Royer. He plays the role well but can be exposed. Chicago couldn’t do it, but Vazquez most certainly could.
Prediction
TFC will take this one, although I would not be completely shocked if we saw extra-time in the second leg. The other option would be utter Toronto domination, but Marsch won’t let that happen. I’ll go with 3-1 on aggregate.