The Table Doesn’t Lie: Puel starts well, the big six are now the top six

Claude Puel made a good start to life as Leicester manager, while the big six ended the weekend in the top six for the first time this season.

20. Crystal Palace (preseason prediction: 11th, difference: -9)
19. Bournemouth (8th, -11)
18. Everton (7th, -11)
17. Swansea (17th, –)
16. West Ham (10th, -6)
15. West Brom (12th, -3)
14. Stoke (16th, +2)
13. Huddersfield (18th, +5)
12. Brighton (20th, +8)
11. Leicester (15th, +4)

Leicester won their first match under new manager Claude Puel on Sunday, beating a listless Everton side 2-0 at the King Power to move up to 11th in the table. The Foxes officially unveiled Puel last Wednesday, which gave him four days to prepare for his first game — not enough time time to draw any sweeping conclusions, but enough to give us a glimpse of what’s to come.

There was much to like in the first half. Demarai Gray, mostly forgotten under Craig Shakespeare, was excellent, creating Leicester’s first goal with a wonderful, 60-yard run and scoring the second, with a little* help from Jonjoe Kenny. Gray’s inclusion meant Riyad Mahrez moved into a central role, an intriguing switch that doesn’t play to Mahrez’s most obvious strengths — running at players, cutting in on his left foot and crossing — but one that could work given the Algerian’s talent level, and Gray’s comfort switching positions with him.

(*a lot)

There was much less to like in the second half, when the Foxes seemed to lose all attacking impetus and chose instead to protect their lead — not a terrible tactic against an Everton team with a large, goalscorer-shaped hole right in the middle of it, but still … it would have been nice to see more of the adventure Leicester showed in the first half.

The most notable feature of the match, however, at least in regard to Puel’s long-term plans, was the Foxes’ formation, a 4-2-3-1 with Vicente Iborra and Wilfred Ndidi holding and Ben Chilwell, Mahrez and Gray behind Jamie Vardy in attack.

Puel has always favored a 4-2-3-1, but that he would implement it after such a short period of time, at a club that has become almost pathologically attached to the 4-4-2 since winning the title in the formation two seasons ago, was nonetheless significant, especially in the context of Leicester’s post-title decline.

Claudio Ranieri, the mastermind of that 4-4-2, was sacked last season amid reports players were unhappy with his tactical changes and wanted a return to the system that won them the league. As Ranieri’s replacement, then, Craig Shakespeare’s approach was pretty simple: return to the 4-4-2 that won them the league. Last season, it worked. This season, not so much.

Granted, Shakespeare, like Ranieri before him, suffered for his side’s failure to convert chances. Per Understat’s expected goals model, Leicester should have been in the top eight at the time of Shakespeare’s dismissal. Still, there are good reasons to believe a tactical change will benefit this team in the long run.

As well as being profoundly unexpected, Leicester’s title win was tactically unique. They played an extremely exaggerated counter-attacking style that depended on the defense conceding hardly any goals and N’Golo Kante getting through superhuman amounts of work in central midfield.

The approach seemed unsustainable even before Kante left for Chelsea. With center-backs Wes Morgan and Robert Huth breaking down physically, and teams better prepared to handle Leicester’s counter-attack, it made sense, at least in theory, for Ranieri to look for a system that could be effective when the 4-4-2 wasn’t working. That he failed, and that the Foxes improved after Shakesepeare reverted to the 4-4-2, doesn’t mean it was a bad idea.

This is the context in which Puel arrives at the club. And it’s important to acknowledge the 4-2-3-1 doesn’t mean Leicester will abandon their counter-attacking identity. They certainly didn’t on Sunday. The Foxes kept only a little over 40 percent of the ball, below their season average, and Vardy’s opener was vintage 2015-16 Leicester. Their ability to counter with speed depends more on the personnel than the formation, and Vardy and Mahrez are still lethal on the break. Gray, a hugely talented 21-year-old, has the makings of the perfect third musketeer.

But the new formation gives them a stronger base in midfield — a necessary concession without Kante — and will make it easier to transition to a more possession-oriented style if and when the situation calls for it. More than anything, the new manager and his new formation might help the club start looking forward again, after a season-plus of reminiscing.

When one of the usual suspects wins the league, their focus shifts immediately to what’s next. How can they win it again? How can they win it better? How many more trophies can they add to their cabinet? With Leicester, for obvious reasons, things were different. As a result, last season, and the beginning of this season, have been defined by the team’s attempt to recapture the magic of 2015-16.

The problem is 2015-16 was magical precisely because it was a one-off. Leicester’s stagnation since then, whether a result of poor judgment or merely bad luck, has been compounded by constant comparisons to the title-winning campaign.

But while the spine is familiar, this is not the side that won the league. It is, however, very talented — more than capable of finishing in the top seven and possibly even challenging for the top six if one of the big sides slips up. With Puel in charge, and a new formation in place, it’s time for them to make their own, new magic.

10. Burnley (19th, +9)
9. Southampton (9th, –)
8. Newcastle (14th, +6)
7. Watford (13th, +6)
6. Liverpool (3rd, -3)
5. Arsenal (6th, +1)
4. Chelsea (5th, +1)
3. Tottenham (4th, -1)
2. Manchester United (2nd, –)
1. Manchester City (1st, –)

It’s taken 10 games, but the big six have all arrived in the top six (at least until Newcastle finish playing Burnley on Monday afternoon). The cliché says you can’t draw any conclusions from the league table until 10 matches in, so after 10 matches, let us conclude.

Manchester City are the best team in the league. This was, as the doubters will be quick to remind you, also true after 10 matches last season — City were top of the table on goal difference at this stage last term, but beginning to slip into a poor run of form that ultimately cost them a shot at a title challenge — but it’s much truer this season.

Pep Guardiola’s side are five points clear at the top of the table, have scored 12 more goals than anyone else, have a goal difference 10 points better than anyone else and, perhaps most notably, have conceded only six goals, or 0.6 a match, after conceding over a goal a game in 2016-17, and nine goals in their first 10 matches.

We knew coming into the year City would blow a lot of teams away. The question was whether they’d be hamstrung by defensive shortcomings and other random acts of stupidity. So far, they have not. That they’ve done most of it without Vincent Kompany only further emphasizes how much they’ve improved.

They will probably hit a bad patch of form at some point, and the squad is still weirdly thin in central midfield, but their lead is beginning to look daunting and they’ve beaten the only other top six sides they’ve faced this season, Liverpool and Chelsea. They’re bigger favorites now than they were at the beginning of the season.

Manchester United are the best of the rest, or never underestimate Jose Mourinho. When United travelled to Anfield two weeks ago and didn’t even pretend to try and score on their way to a slightly fortunate 0-0 draw, Mourinho was dismissed, as always and forever, as too negative to win the league.

This was, and is, a strange criticism, since Mourinho has won the league three times before with pretty much identical tactics. Things are a little different now, however, given how many elite sides there are in the league — drawing 10 matches 0-0 might seriously damage a title challenge in a way drawing six games 0-0 would not.

But Sunday’s win against Tottenham was a reminder of how seamlessly 0-0 Mourinho transitions to 1-0 Mourinho. United aren’t going to win any style points against their biggest rivals, but they’re going to do enough often enough to keep pressure on City.

Tottenham’s squad is deeper than it looks. Tottenham had a weird transfer window. Their only signings of note were Davinson Sanchez, Serge Aurier and Fernando Llorente, all replacements for and/or upgrades on departing players (Kevin Wimmer, Kyle Walker and Vincent Janssen, respectively).

And so there were reasons to doubt whether Mauricio Pochettino’s side had the depth necessary to challenge for the title, especially with Moussa Dembele, Victor Wanyama, Danny Rose and Heung-min Son in various stages of recovery heading into the season.

So far, however, the squad has looked almost injury-proof. Harry Winks has excelled, Moussa Sissoko is functional if not, you know, good and Eric Dier’s ability to play in midfield and defense has proved as useful as always.

There’s been a cobbled-together element to Spurs so far this season, as seen once more in their starting lineup away to Manchester United on Saturday, but their formational flexibility and defensive solidity mean they remain real contenders, regardless of the starting XI.

Chelsea won’t challenge. The Blues have had an up-and-down start to their title defense, losing to Burnley on the opening day of the season, getting back on track with a five-match unbeaten run and then falling off it again with back-to-back losses to Manchester City and then-pointless and goalless Crystal Palace.

Chelsea have shown flashes of the ruthless efficiency that led them to the title last season — Saturday’s 1-0 win against Bournemouth was textbook — but there’s been a vulnerability to team that simply wasn’t evident following the switch to the 3-4-3 last season.

Some of that is down to a lack of squad depth — they’ve looked especially weak in N’Golo Kante’s absence since the last international break — and some of it is down the fact it’s hard to sustain a title-winning intensity two seasons in a row.

Regardless, while the Blues remain on track to finish in the top four, they’ve been surpassed by the two Manchester clubs, and possibly Tottenham.

The more things change, the more they stay the same for Arsenal. What is there to say about the Gunners that hasn’t already been said? Or, better yet, what’s the point of saying the things that haven’t already been said?

Arsene Wenger’s pointless experiment with a back three continues. Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil have yet to sign new contracts. Alexandre Lacazette and Sead Kolasinac both look like excellent signings. Arsenal still lose when and how they shouldn’t, and bounce back just as reliably.

The Gunners are going to finish with 70ish points, whoever and however the play. Until Wenger leaves, the only question relevant to their position in the league is whether the rest of the big six will finish with more.

Jurgen Klopp is under pressure. Klopp’s problem isn’t so much Liverpool’s results (they’re still well within reach of the top four) as it is that they keep doing the same dumb things over and over again. The Reds’ defensive incompetence reached a new peak last weekend in their 4-1 thrashing away to Tottenham, and it will take much more than a 3-0 home win against Huddersfield to convince fans the club has turned a corner.

There’s a debate to be had about who exactly is at fault for Liverpool’s defensive struggles — some pin the blame on Dejan Lovren and Simon Mignolet, some look at Jordan Henderson in defensive midfield, while others target Klopp. With the transfer window come and gone, and the German unable to strengthen until January, the big question is this: if the players Klopp has aren’t capable of doing what he wants, why doesn’t he tweak his system?

The whole big mess has barely slowed down Liverpool’s attack, which remains good enough to keep them in the hunt for the Champions League places regardless of what’s happening behind them, but tension is growing around Anfield, and Klopp is under serious pressure for the first time since joining the club. If there’s good news for the Reds, it’s that they seem to be trying to get their dip in form out of the way early this time. The only way is up. Unless it’s not.