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25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 4 Wichita State Shockers

By Chris Stone

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 19: Landry Shamet #11 of the Wichita State Shockers reacts to hitting a 3-point shot in the last mintute of regulation against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second round of the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 19, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 19: Landry Shamet #11 of the Wichita State Shockers reacts to hitting a 3-point shot in the last mintute of regulation against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second round of the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at the Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 19, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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Wichita State’s move to the AAC may not change much until March

Over the past six seasons, Gregg Marshall has built one of the most divisive college basketball programs in the country…at least when it comes to NCAA Tournament seeding.

From debates about whether or not his Wichita State Shockers were deserving of a No. 1 seed after running the table in 2014 to fights over if they even belonged in the field in 2016, few topics generate as much virtual ink each year as where the Shockers should be seeded come March.

The (oversimplified) proverbial line in the sand tends to pit those who care about who a team has beaten against those concerned with how a team has played. Unfortunately, the Selection Committee — hamstrung by its reliance on the RPI and quality wins — tends to fall in line with the former, a seeding death knell considering the Shockers’ home for the last six plus years was the perennially weak Missouri Valley Conference.

Consider this: Wichita State is one of just four schools (Duke, Kansas and Louisville) to finish each of the last six seasons ranked in the top 20 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, a statistic designed to measure a team’s performance based on its offensive and defensive output and adjusted for strength of schedule. Yet, its average NCAA Tournament seed (7.2) during that stretch has been over four seed lines lower than the Cardinals (3.0), about five spots lower than the Blue Devils (2.3) and nearly six slots lower than the Jayhawks (1.5). Remove the token No. 1 seed the Shockers were rewarded in 2014 and their average seed (8.4) would earn them a spot in an opening round 8-9 game despite performing like one of the top 20 teams in the country.

When it comes to March, seeding matters. Higher seeds tend to have less difficult paths to deep tournament runs as they typically face weaker competition early on, delay potential coin flip games until later and even potentially benefit from first weekend upsets that set up favorable second weekend matchups.

This is the context that makes Wichita State’s move to the American Athletic Conference this season so important.

The Shockers return nearly every significant rotation piece — including a formidable starting five of Landry Shamet, Conner Frankamp, Zach Brown, Markis McDuffie and Shaquille Morris —  from a roster that was one of just four teams (Kentucky, North Carolina and Villanova) to rank in the top 15 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency last season.

Their offense demolished the Missouri Valley to the tune of 1.21 points per possession in 2016-17, per KenPom, and while it’s fair to expect some drop off against the tougher competition of the AAC, it’s hard to pinpoint a weakness. Nearly every perimeter player is a must guard behind the 3-point arc where the team shot 40.2 percent last season and when the shots don’t fall, Morris, McDuffie, Rashard Kelly and Darral Willis are there to crash the offensive glass. The Shockers are almost always going to get a shot away, too. They turned the ball over on just 16.3 percent of their possessions last season, good for the 40th best mark in the country, per KenPom.

The picture doesn’t get any rosier for opponents on the other end of the floor, either. Wichita State does a terrific job of denying opponents easy looks at the rim, conceding just 27.7 percent of total non-post up shots around the basket last season, per Synergy. When opponents do get those shots off, they struggle to make them, averaging just 0.973 points per possession (96th percentile). The Shockers’ defense forces opposing offenses into shots away from the rim and cleans up the misses. Wichita State ranked 9th nationally in defensive rebound rate in 2016-17.

If there’s one potential pitfall of the Shockers’ defensive style, it’s that they allow a pretty significant number of 3-point attempts. Last season, opponents hoisted 38.7 percent of their total field goal attempts from behind the arc, but converted a meager 31.1 percent of their chances. It’s possible the length of players like Brown, McDuffie and Shamet is disruptive, but historical evidence would suggest Wichita State got a bit lucky conceding so many 3s. So, if you’re grasping at straws for a place where the Shockers might slip up in 2017-18, keep an eye on how well their opponents are shooting.

Generally speaking, though, Wichita State should be even better this upcoming season than it was in 2016-17. Teams featuring rotations with a higher percentage of returning minutes tend to outperform the average when it comes to both offensive and defensive efficiency while also improving at a high rate year over year. Of course, given how good the Shockers were last season, there’s only so much progress they can make, but perhaps their time together will offset some of the growing pains of joining a tougher league.

That said, we won’t get to see Wichita State at full strength for a bit. Shamet still hasn’t practiced after suffering a stress fracture in his foot (although the team is hopeful he’ll be available for an exhibition game this weekend) and McDuffie, also dealing with a stress fracture, won’t be back until mid-December.

During the Shockers’ time in the Missouri Valley, taking time to get things together during non-conference play could be disastrous given that it was their only time to generate quality wins. That’s what happened with the near NCAA Tournament miss in 2016, after all, when they lost three straight games at the AdvoCare Invitational without Fred Van Vleet.

Next: Michigan State still has plenty to prove

This season, Wichita State has its bases covered in two ways. The school did an excellent job putting together a non-conference slate that includes not only some good high major opponents like Baylor and Oklahoma, but also some potential RPI boosting wins from low major conference favorites, including College of Charleston, Florida Gulf Coast and South Dakota State. If the Shockers can pick up a few wins there, they’ll be sitting pretty. Even if they don’t, there’s the new conference schedule, which will provide opportunities for quality wins against Cincinnati, SMU and even Central Florida.

Wichita State’s move to the AAC combined with one of the most talented and experienced rosters in the country could ultimately help erase the line in the sand in debates over seeding come March. For the first time in a while, the Shockers will have the chance to simultaneously prove their numbers the last six seasons are no fluke and pick up the type of wins that matter to the Selection Committee.