Record predictions for every NBA team

The NBA season is underway and surprises are everywhere. What do we expect from each team in terms of a final record?

Before this year’s NBA season, I put together some win projections using my own version of projected Real Plus-Minus. You can read more about the details here, but the gist of it is that I used projected box score stats from Basketball-Reference, along with three years of RAPM data to project player value. I then estimated minutes played for players on each team and came up with team strength values and then ran those numbers through the schedule to get win projections. Today we’re running through every team’s projected record with some commentary on why they grade out the way they do.

Atlanta Hawks (Projected Record: 29-53)

The Hawks are in a rough spot this season. With the departure of Paul Millsap, Atlanta has but a single player projected as an above average contributor. DeWayne Dedmon projects as the Hawks’ best player on an RPM basis, owing largely to his defense. Last season, Dedmon ranked third amongst centers in defensive RPM. Dedmon projects to block 2.3 shots per 100 possessions, nab 1.4 steals per 100 possessions, and grab 12 rebounds per 100. Those are all great numbers for a center. Dedmon projects to be a low impact offensive player which is why his superlative defense can barely carry him to an above average projection.

Dennis Schroder is going to get all the possessions to use he wants, and given the heavy influence of past performance on my projections (where Schroder was in a more restricted context) his box score projection may undersell what we’re likely to actually see from him. Still, his overall impact should be pretty accurate. Last year, Schroder was below replacement level via RPM, because he was just a turnstile on defense. My system expects him to improve, as he is still fairly young, but he’s still projected at only a -0.8 per 100 possessions impact, which is fine for a rotation guard, less so for your starting point guard.

In positive news, John Collins projects as one of the better rookies in the league according to my numbers and figures to get a ton of minutes, which should be a spot of excitement for Hawks fans. It has to be noted, though, that rookies, even good ones, typically aren’t very good in plus-minus impact metrics.