Record predictions for every NBA team

Memphis Grizzlies (Projected Record: 33-49)

This projection is probably going to look stupid, because that’s what Memphis does. They take all of your analytics and crumple them up and throw them in the garbage can while yelling out “Kobe!,” because these Grizzlies simply are unbothered by margin of victory, net rating, or point differential. They win. Consistently year over year, Memphis has overperformed its win expectations and won above its “talent” level. Traditionally, analytically minded folks attribute this sort of overachieving to luck. When it happens as consistently as it has with the Grizzlies over the last decade or so, though, there’s probably something else at work. (For a good piece on winning as a skill, see here.)

And right on cue to start the season, Memphis came out of the gate downing the likes of the Warriors, the Rockets, and Pelicans. They just aren’t going away.

The Grizzlies expected record, via my numbers, was so low mostly because the only players projected to be above average contributors on the team are Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, the team’s core duo. Gasol only projects as a bit above average, as his age starts to catch up with him. Conley still looks quite good, but seemingly not good enough to drag the rest of the mediocre supporting cast around him to a good record and playoff berth. And yet, the Grizzlies have started the season doing what they always do, finding ways to win games they shouldn’t. I expect to be wrong here, and I am happy to be.