Record predictions for every NBA team

Minnesota Timberwolves (Projected Record: 47-35)

The Wolves won just 31 games last year, so a 16-win improvement seems like a very large leap. You’re probably wondering, Reader, what’s driving such a large improvement. Well, as alluded to in the Memphis entry, my system of projection, like most others, relies on point differential and plus-minus style metrics, which viewed Minnesota as more like a 38 win team. Generally speaking, we’d expect a team which underperforms its point differential to come back towards winning the number of games according to its point differential. But instead of generally speaking, we can talk specifically about the Wolves. Minnesota has a track record of underperforming its point differential, year after year after year, to the point that it’s hard not to conclude that they are the mirror of the Grizzlies, who almost always overperform. Memphis has a “winning culture” and Minnesota has a “losing culture.”

Still, my system didn’t incorporate that extra information about Memphis or Minnesota, so we can say that as far as my numbers are concerned, the leap I’m projecting Minnesota to make represents more like a 9-win increase. That’s not insignificant, but they made huge addition to their roster without surrendering anyone who was a significantly positive impact player. Of course, that addition was Jimmy Butler.

In addition, the Wolves benefit from projected improvements from their young “stars” Karl Anthony-Towns and Andrew Wiggins. The quotes are for Wiggins, not Towns. Towns has been as good as advertised in his career (on offense, at least), whereas Wiggins has been mediocre to bad at everything that isn’t volume scoring, leading to his impact being muted in plus-minus style stats.

Taj Gibson, Jeff Teague, and Gorgui Dieng all project to provide solid production and impacts for their respective roles, which helps round out the rotation around the newly formed Minnesota star trio.