Philadelphia 76ers (Projected Record: 33-49)
The accuracy of Philly’s projections really hinge on health above all else. I have Joel Embiid slated to play just 1250 minutes this year, given his significant health problems throughout his career. Even with those low minutes totals for their best player, and a top 30 player by my projected RPM estimates, the Sixers project to be a fringe playoff contender. Embiid’s projection, per possession, is probably slightly underweight because of the mean regression factored in due to his low minutes played thus far in his career.
Ben Simmons is the best projected rookie in my numbers and one of the better projected rookies of recent vintage. So far, Simmons looks every bit as good as my projections and likely even better. He’s put up a triple-double already and his BPM is +5.3.
The Sixers also return Robert Covington, who is a very solid role player and a fairly archetypal 3-and-D wing player. He projects to be above average and to play starter’s minutes. J.J. Redick figures to provide a similar level of impact as Covington, despite being on the declining side of his aging curve. Redick should provide solid enough team defense and elite shooting around the young stars Philly procured through The Process.
Markelle Fultz didn’t project to be an immediate contributor.