Record predictions for every NBA team

Cleveland Cavaliers (Projected Record: 60-22)

Subjectively this win total feels high for Cleveland. The Cavs are unlikely to be pressed to really have to try hard to keep the first seed in the East and even if they were, they were completely unbothered by going on the road in Boston in last year’s playoffs and absolutely murking the Celtics in their own building.

Beyond the lack of urgency to push for 60 wins, the Cavs have to incorporate some new parts and egos, both of which could present some interesting fit issues. Between LeBron James, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, and when he returns from his hip injury, Isaiah Thomas, Cleveland has an awful lot of players whose value is maximized by having the ball in their hands and who have less utility off the ball. The possibility for a diminishing marginal returns to each of these players’ usage could cause the box-score side of my RPM projections to significantly overrate the likely impact of each of these players, to a greater or lesser extent.

Finally, I penciled Isaiah Thomas (projected RPM: +2.0) in for 39 games at 30 minutes a game, which is more or less a complete guess, given the haziness around the severity of his hip injury. If he plays less, you can expect Cleveland’s record to suffer somewhat accordingly.

Still, the reasons for optimism around the Cavs include: having LeBron still on the roster, Kevin Love still being around and being mighty useful, and Jae Crowder, another role-playing plus-minus darling, adding an element of 3-and-D play on the wing that the Cavs have sometimes lacked, beyond J.R. Smith, whose D is not as quality as Crowder’s but works well enough, given everything else he provides (mainly, back-breaking YOLO 3s). The Cavs are still the class of the East.