Record predictions for every NBA team

Dallas Mavericks (Projected Record: 33-49)

Dallas was a 33-win team last year, and they returned mostly the same set of key rotation players. They’ll benefit some from having Nerlens Noel for the full year, as he projects as a roughly average per possession contributor. Some of that benefit will be reduced by Dirk Nowitzki’s continued gentle decline. Nowitzki should remain the Mavs’ best player for at least one more season, barring a more severe decline or, perhaps, a breakout season from Harrison Barnes or Nerlens Noel.

Dallas’s most exciting and promising player, Dennis Smith Jr., doesn’t project to help them win all that much this season, because most rookies don’t. Smith’s expected rookie RPM is just a shade over replacement level (-1.9 per 100), so the fact that he will likely see heavy minutes this season will erode more of the benefit Dallas sees from Noel being with the team for the full year. On the bright side, my projection system and many other have high hopes for the explosive young point guard.

Overall, Dallas looks to be the eighth-worst team in the league, which should put them in position to draft another solid young contributor to pair with Smith, and with an outside chance of hitting lottery gold and getting one of the members of the highly touted 2018 draft class. For this year, though, it’ll be ugly, aside from Dirk fadeaways and Dennis Smith dunks.