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Denver Nuggets (Projected Record: 46-36)

The Nuggets had a pretty successful offseason in adding do-it-all, plus-minus stud Paul Millsap. Millsap’s on the wrong side of his aging curve, but he still looks to be a very impactful player this season. In addition, Denver can expect some continued improvement from its unexpected and unconventional superstar, Nikola Jokic. Jokic’s expected RPM for this season, in my version, put him firmly in the top 10, right between Kevin Durant and Kyle Lowry.

Big men who can pass well are always more impactful than most people realize, and Jokic has, in his young career, shown flashes of being possibly the best passing center ever. He’s at least the best big man passer since a young Arvydas Sabonis and his impact on the Nuggets’ offense is substantial.

Denver surrounds their talented frontcourt with a couple of young, solid wing players in Gary Harris and Jamal Murray. It should be noted, however, that my projections viewed Jameer Nelson as likely to play significant minutes for these Nugget and to be a very serviceable rotation guard for them. Instead, they released Nelson in order to sign Richard Jefferson, a player who my numbers viewed as significantly worse. More problematic is that the release of Nelson should press Emmanuel Mudiay into more minutes and, well, Mudiay has been a trainwreck by plus-minus statistics and more standard box-score measures for the entirety of his young career. If the Nuggets underachieve, it may be worth looking back on the decision to swap Nelson for Jefferson as the catalyzing mistake which lead them down that path.