25 College Basketball Teams in 25 Days: No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas may have to go small again, but it won’t be a bad thing for the Jayhawks.

Last season, the Kansas Jayhawks looked different.

For the first time in the Bill Self era, the team regularly played lineups without two big men. Although Self had embraced some of the principles of small ball in recent years with lineups featuring Marcus Morris or Perry Ellis — both tweener power forwards as pros — 2016-17 was really the first time the Jayhawks seemed to dive head first into some of college basketball’s recent trends.

Kansas’ decision to play four guards inverted Self’s traditional inside-out offense, putting pressure on his guards to create scoring chances and generating plenty of 3-point looks. The Jayhawks finished the season having attempted 35.9 percent of their total field goal attempts from behind the arc, by far the highest mark of Self’s tenure. Their heightened 3-point attempt rate served as just one statistical indicator of the change in Lawrence.

Self’s transition to small ball came partially out of necessity. Kansas lost 7-footer Udoka Azubuike for the season due to a wrist injury just 11 games into his college career. Azubuike’s absence drastically limited Self’s flexibility by leaving Landen Lucas and Carlton Bragg as the team’s only reliable frontcourt options with Dwight Coleby still finding his groove after a knee injury and freshman Mitch Lightfoot a ways away from contributing.

Roster fit also played an important role. Most of Self’s best players were guards, so it made sense to get as many of them on the court as possible for as long as possible. Self also had the perfect piece on his roster to slot in as a small ball power forward. At 6-foot-8, 5-star freshman Josh Jackson, the No. 4 pick in last June’s NBA Draft, didn’t cost the Jayhawks any size at the 4 and his play style fit the position well.

Generally speaking, playing smaller with extra shooters has obvious offensive benefits — putting players in space naturally makes teams tougher to guard because defenders have more ground to cover — but there are often concerns about what’s being sacrificed on defense. With Jackson, Kansas didn’t have to worry. The freshman was physically mature enough to handle himself against most opposing power forwards on the block, proved himself capable of battling on the defensive boards and acted as a roaming rim protector from the weak side.

With Jackson off to the NBA, though, Self has spent the offseason talking about getting back to his roots. While speaking on a broadcast for the team’s Late Night in the Phog event, the head coach suggested he wanted to play big 70 percent of the time this season. After practicing, that number fell to 50, which means he would need to scrounge together roughly 60 minutes per game from the roster’s big men.

For perspective, during conference play last season — a nice cut off since Azubuike went out with one game left on the non-conference slate — Self got about 50 minutes per game out of his four bigs. The largest chunk of which came from Landen Lucas, a fifth-year senior who grew adept at avoiding foul trouble while averaging 29.1 minutes per contest in Big 12 play.

It’s hard to see how the personnel fits for Self this season.

Azubuike is back and while he’s by far the team’s most talented big man, he averaged 8.7 fouls per 40 minutes as a freshman. Foul trouble is the fastest track to limited minutes for any player. Even assuming a top end outcome, it’s hard to imagine the 7-footer equalizing 29 minutes per game. Then there’s 5-star forward Billy Preston. Presumably, he’ll play more than the 13.3 minutes per contest Bragg averaged during Big 12 play last season, which will help make up the gap between Azubuike and Lucas, but only two freshmen bigs (Julian Wright and Joel Embiid) have averaged more than 20.0 minutes per game under Self at Kansas. And that assumes Preston, long a fan of playing on the perimeter, is willing to embrace the role. Lightfoot, for his part, seems destined to be a scarce contributor. Self may be forced to embrace small ball once again.

There are rightfully concerns (namely surrounding defensive rebounding) about how the 2017-18 roster would play with four guards, but all of the above primarily matters because of how it intersects with one of Self’s core beliefs: basketball’s best teams create and make easy baskets. Historically, big men have generated those looks for the Jayhawks via post seals and smart angles on the low block. Last season, when the team went smaller, Jackson and National Player of the Year Frank Mason III created them by bursting into the newfound driving lanes afforded by a spaced out floor. In theory, a small ball playing 2017-18 Kansas should be able to do the same thing. In practice, it’s not so clear.

The Jayhawks’ collection of guards for this season — Devonte’ Graham, Malik Newman, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Lagerald Vick and Sam Cunliffe (eligible at semester) — have a penchant for the deep ball. Based on numbers compiled via Sports-Reference, those players collectively took 57.1 percent of their field goal attempts from behind the arc in their respective most recent seasons played. A Self coached guard rotation at Kansas has never topped 50 percent.

So, what the hell are the Jayhawks doing in the preseason top three?

For starters, falling in love with the 3-pointer might not be such a bad thing for this group. Graham, Mykhailiuk and Vick all shot it better than 37.0 percent from behind the arc last season while Newman knocked down 37.9 percent of his 3s at Mississippi State in 2015-16. Cunliffe was also a solid shooter at Arizona State, although his simple size is hardly big enough to be representative. Although their shooting percentages on face are lower than they would be around the rim, their expected output per attempt is higher because 3s are worth more than 2s. For them, these are easy shots and if Self continues to free the 3, Kansas should have one of the most potent offenses in the nation.

The Jayhawks also won’t be totally anemic when it comes to getting looks around the basket. Azubuike has already proven himself to be decent at sealing off defenders down low and capable of catching on target entry passes. His size makes him nearly unstoppable once he does those two things in position. As a sophomore, his presence on the interior should be a significant upgrade offensively over Lucas. Plus, there’s the chance that at least one of the guards channels some of Mason’s inner bulldog when it comes to attacking the rack.

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Azubuike’s presence defensively should also be a boon, assuming he’s able to stay on the floor. Lucas wasn’t much of a rim protector. The sophomore big man, meanwhile, averaged 5.1 blocks per 40 minutes as a freshman. Last season, opponents shot 45.3 percent on 2-pointers against the Jayhawks, the worst mark of Self’s tenure. Azubuike should help bring that number down this season.

In the end, all of this huffing and puffing is probably much ado about nothing. With the advantage of Allen Fieldhouse, Kansas should be favored to win the Big 12 for a 14th straight season and Self should have the team positioned to make a run at a Final Four come March, but the margins for error are thinner this season, especially in the frontcourt where even a medium-term injury could spell serious trouble.