DraftKings NBA Picks November 1: Build Around The Brow
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks November 1: Build Around The Brow
We have a season-high 12 games in the main DraftKings tournament tonight. This is a big slate to start November. Where should we build our lineups from? Let’s check some stats and trends.
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Just a reminder that the classic tournaments on DraftKings truly are classic. They do not allow for late swapping. The late swap tournaments are much, much smaller, so we have to decide if we want a fair match, or if we want to win big money. We shouldn’t have to decide that!
The money line was down to 241 points. Under average games from the studs contributed to this. One of my lineups missed because of Collison. The other fell shot because of poor games from Ulis and Oladipo.
The winning lineup was down to 318.75 DraftKings points. The winners all faded Giannis and Westbrook. They instead got value from Russell and Booker and big games from Mike James and Domantas Sabonis.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
John Wall ($9,500): Wall didn’t have that great of a game against Sacramento, but the potential for a huge game is there against the Suns. Russell lit them up from the point last night, so I can say with confidence that Wall will hit at least 5x value. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up with more.
Ben Simmons ($8,800): If Simmons develops an outside shot, look out! He is already the most polished offensive player on the floor for the Sixers, and a pretty good facilitator as well. Atlanta is where the Sixers were last year: building around young players. Simmons should have his way with whomever the Hawks put in front of him.
Honorable Mention:
Kemba Walker ($7,600): Walker has 146.25 DraftKings points over his last three games. Tonight he gets to take on a pretty solid Milwaukee team that is quietly in the middle of the pack defending the point. Walker is on a roll right now, and I trust him more than Lowry against a Denver team that locks down the perimeter or Lillard against Utah.
Jrue Holiday ($7,100): Holiday is taking on the league’s worst defenders of the point, the Minnesota Timberwolves. His upside is tempered somewhat by those two monsters in the interior, but these three have proven that all can have productive nights for fantasy purposes. Holiday looks like a really strong play tonight.
Jeff Teague ($6,400): Only his former team has been able to hold Teague under 5x value in his last five games. He had a huge game against the Heat on Monday, and will look to build on that against the Pelicans. The Pelicans are right in the middle of the pack defensively, so I at least expect Teague to hit 5x value again.
Dark Horses:
Patrick Beverley ($5,700): Beverley continues to be involved in the offense, which lessens the risk of using him. He wasn’t really hitting his shots on Monday, but he has a good chance to erase those memories against a Dallas team that is still trying to find an identity in the backcourt.
T.J. McConnell ($5,000): McConnell has averaged 33 DraftKings points per game over his last three games. He looks like a very strong play against the rebuilding Hawks. McConnell looks to be a strong value play so long as Fultz is out. Considering the way McConnell has played, Fultz could have a hard time working his way back into the rotation.
Mike James ($4,700): James pulled ahead of Tyler Ulis last night, lighting up the scoreboard with 24 points. This kind of output likely wont be the norm, but his larger minutes share over Ulis still seems to be. James is the safer pick right now.
My picks: Wall(PG); Holiday(PG), James(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
DeMar DeRozan ($7,900): Denver is only allowing 1.8 made threes per game, but that isn’t really DeRozan’s game. He thrives on taking the ball to the basket and in midrange jumpers. For this reason, he could buck the trend of Denver defending the perimeter well. I trust him a lot more to make value than Harden at his price.
Bradley Beal ($7,200): Beal has had two clunkers in a row, but he should get back on track tonight against the Suns. There will be a lot more shots to go around against the up-tempo Suns. Now if only Beal can knock them down….
Honorable Mention:
Khris Middleton ($6,800): Middleton didn’t have a very good game last night, but I have him on here again for tonight. Charlotte has not defended the off guard well with Nicolas Batum out, so Middleton will have every opportunity to get back on the right track tonight.
Evan Fournier ($6,600): Elfrid Payton is finally listed as questionable. Whether that means he gets back on the court tonight is anyone’s guess. However, I am guessing that if Payton plays, it will be in a somewhat limited capacity. That takes all remaining value away from Augustin and Shelvin Mack, but I still like Fournier here. Memphis has not guarded the position well, and Fournier is putting up some good numbers lately. That should continue with Payton not yet 100%.
Justin Holiday ($5,900): Holiday continues to hang around 4.5-5.5x value. That makes him a little bit of a risk, but with the way Miami has given up fantasy points to shooting guards, Holiday could be a very nice play tonight. The Heat have surrendered the second most fantasy points to the position. I like Holiday quite a bit tonight.
Dark Horses:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,400): It sure looked like those of us who invested in Timmy were wasting our time and money early on. Hardaway has finally shown flashes of the player he was last year, racking up 86 DraftKings points over the last two games. He has a favorable matchup with Houston at home tonight. I think he keeps it going here. I’m looking for at least 6x value from Hardaway tonight.
Kent Bazemore ($5,300): Bazemore has been a consistent force for the Hawks so far. He has at least 25 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. The Sixers are statistically the worst team in the league against shooting guards. I love Bazemore at this price tonight.
Jonathon Simmons ($4,800): You know, even if Payton returns tonight, I’m not sure Simmons sees a significant minutes decrease. He has dumped in 64 points over the last three games, putting up 102 DraftKings points in that span. He is a huge bargain tonight if Payton is out, but he could still be a pretty good play even with Payton in there.
My pick: Hardaway(SG), Bazemore(UTIL), Fournier(G); Bazemore(SG), Simmons(UTIL), Holiday(SF)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,400): Giannis had an off night last night. That isn’t my main concern. The Charlotte defense and the second night of a back to back are. I would much rather play LeBron at $1,600 less. He is well rested against a Pacers team that he really took it to last year. LeBron will have a much better chance at beating 5x value than Giannis does.
Otto Porter ($7,100): I’m a little curious to see how this will play out against the Suns. The Suns are in the second night of a back to back, but that really doesn’t matter that much. This team runs in their sleep. Porter should be able to have a solid game tonight, but I don’t see this being one of the huge ones that he has put up early on.
Honorable Mention:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,900): Wiggins is mostly a scorer, so that makes him a bit of a risk. It also gives him big upside. The Pelicans have been weak on the wings so far this year. Wiggins has the stroke to take advantage of that tonight, even more so than Butler.
Dion Waiters ($5,800): Waiters was on fire from the perimeter on Monday night. The Bulls have been decent on the outside, but Waiters appears to be in the midst of the long awaited breakout season. He set a career high with 33 points in his last outing. Can he give an encore performance?
Tyreke Evans ($5,300): Evans played a season high in minutes and led the team in scoring against the Pelicans on Monday. With news that Mike Conley may be out, Evans may see an even larger workload tonight. His stock is trending upward right now, and his price is too low for what he might do tonight.
Dark Horses:
Joe Ingles ($5,100): Ingles has at least 25 DraftKings points in each of his last three games. He is a solid contributor for the Jazz right now. He lacks upside, but if you want a sure 5x value. this would be the place to get it.
Denzel Valentine ($4,700): Valentine played very well without Paul Zipser in the lineup. If Zipser is back, it could dent his value some, but I think that Valentine earned himself more run with this team going forward. He outdid what Zipser has been doing early in the season. The Bulls should play Valentine more. However, this is a huge risk if he isn’t in the starting five.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,000): The Pacers have given Bogdanovic more of a run lately, and he has responded with back to back games of over 7x value! Playing him against the Cavs is a bit of a risk, but with the way he is shooting right now, Bojan could easily give you 6x value and possibly more.
My pick: Evans(SF); Evans(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,200): If you are paying up for an elite player tonight, it should be Davis first. He always hits value while Cousins bounces on either side of the value line. Davis is the interior scorer for this team, and has at least 60 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. In the one that he missed, he played just five minutes. Davis could have a huge night against Minnesota.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900): Porzingis has been struggling against good interiors. That was until he dominated Denver on Monday. Porzingis has 159 DraftKings points over the last three games. He has brief periods of dominance last season as well. Ride it while it lasts. There could be a cold spell on the horizon.
Honorable Mention:
Aaron Gordon ($6,900): Gordon has impressive upside, but his inconsistency can instantly knock your lineup out of the money. Memphis looks like a fairly tough matchup here, but Gordon held his own against the solid interiors of Charlotte and New Orleans over the last couple of games. 5x value could still be within reach.
Jayson Tatum ($6,100): The rookie is putting up consistently good numbers. The Kings have a lot of size in the middle, but none of it is dominating. Tatum is set up for another strong outing here. He has very good upside, but he is still a rookie. Tatum could drop a dud at any time.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,100): Markkanen does lack the upside of Tatum, but he has been far more consistent. Markkanen has not been below 29 DraftKings points or above 33. You know exactly what you are getting from him. That makes him better suited for cash games, but if you are building a low-risk lineup, Markkanen is a strong inclusion in that.
Dark Horses:
Kelly Olynyk ($5,600): Hassan Whiteside is still out, which means Olynyk is still a pretty solid play. He had a horrible game against the Spurs, but that appears to be the outlier. Olynyk looks like he should have another 5.5x value game against the Bulls tonight.
Thaddeus Young ($5,300): Young has provided consistent value with Myles Turner out. He lacks the upside of Sabonis, but Young has hung around 5x value in all but one game so far this year. He was better with Turner in the lineup, but he hasn’t been bad without him.
John Collins ($4,900): Collins does more with his 18-24 minutes than most do with 28-30 minutes. The rookie has carved out a solid role with the Hawks so far. His upside is capped since he comes off the bench, but he has still hit over 6x value twice, and 5x or more in all but one game this year.
My pick: Markkanen(PF); Davis(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,000): Cousins is way too hard to rely on at that price. I liked it much better before Davis got hurt and he posted those huge lines. Towns faces a tough task against Boogie tonight, but he has at least 40 DraftKings points in every game this year. He should at least come close to 5x value even if he doesn’t break it.
Nikola Jokic ($8,700): Statisticially, the Knicks were in the top three in fantasy points allowed to centers. That was until Jokic dropped 47 on them on Monday. Jokic has at least 46.75 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. All were on the road, and all but one were against defenses in the top ten against the position. Jokic could be in for a big night tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Joel Embiid ($7,900): Atlanta is weak up front, and Embiid is averaging 5x value on the season. We need about 5.5x value from every position to cash, and about 7x value to take down a GPP tournament. Embiid is likely to provide somewhere within that range tonight.
Al Horford ($7,400): Horford has topped 40 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. The only team that held him under was Miami. Sacramento has a lot of bodies on the interior, but quantity doesn’t always mean quantity. Horford should put up 40 again tonight. +
DeAndre Jordan ($7,300): Jordan was a disappointment against the Warriors on Monday, but he only played 27 minutes in the blowout. Dallas is a disaster up front. Jordan should more than make up for his lackluster Monday in this one.
Dark Horses:
Enes Kanter ($6,000): The Knicks were battered on the inside by Jokic last time around, but I’m not sure Capela can duplicate that feat. He is becoming an elite rebounder, but he wont continue to shoot 75% from the floor. I will save a bit of money and use his opponent since Capela’s dominance of the boards has not translated into stopping opposing centers from scoring.
Domantas Sabonis ($5,700): Cleveland’s struggles against opposing centers is well documented. Sabonis had a big game last night, and now has at least 35 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. That is huge value for his price.
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,400): O’Quinn had a huge game off the bench against the Nuggets on Monday. We would think that would lead to more minutes going forward, but who knows. O’Quinn is a huge risk because of all the bigs New York is giving minutes to. But he had done an awful lot with the minutes he gets.
My pick: Kanter(C), Sabonis(F); Sabonis(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with ESPN college pick em picks!