DraftKings NBA Picks November 2: Is Durant The Best Play?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks November 2: Is Durant The Best Play?
We go from a season high in games last night to a season low. There are only two games in the main DraftKings tournament tonight. One of them involves a team that was in action last night. Will that affect who we use?
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Just a reminder that the classic tournaments on DraftKings truly are classic. They do not allow for late swapping. The late swap tournaments are much, much smaller, so we have to decide if we want a fair match, or if we want to win big money. We shouldn’t have to decide that!
The money line was all the way up to 277.25 DraftKings points last night. I put one lineup a shade over 300, and one a shade under. One of the published lineups was one that tanked thanks to below average games from Jonathan Simmons, Bazemore, and Justin Holiday. The other two succeeded with value from Evans and Khris Middleton.
The winning lineup was all the way up to 389.25. He won by 0.25 points! He used a huge game from Boogie and T.J. Warren along with the Memphis value, Sabonis, and Tim Hardaway Jr to take it down.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Damian Lillard ($9,300): The Lakers have struggled defending the perimeter. Lillard has had trouble hitting value at times this year, but this shouldn’t be one of them. The only concern is the quick turnaround from a road game in Utah that went into overtime. Lillard played heavy minutes in that one, so I may flip to Curry instead. I left myself the money to seamlessly flip to Lillard later in the day if I decide to.
Stephen Curry ($9,000): The Spurs defend well, but it hasn’t mattered who is playing defense on Curry. He has hit 5x value against everyone except Washington and Houston. The opener was the only game in which Curry did not hit 40 DraftKings points. He is right up there with Lillard, but the San Antonio defense is a bit of a turnoff.
Honorable Mention:
Lonzo Ball ($7,100): Is there value away from the top options? Maybe. Ball has struggled to hit 5x value, but with a bit of a knock on each of the top options, he could be a solid pivot option if you need the money elsewhere. Ball should land around 30 DraftKings points, which is where he is most of the time. In relation to the output related to the price of the top options, he should be pretty competitive.
Dark Horses:
Dejounte Murray ($5,500): Murray has had a couple of real clunkers lately. The Warriors are in the middle of the pack defensively, and should this game turn into a blowout, Murray could see his minutes take a hit. The question is will he provide enough value beforehand? It’s a risk I’m not that keen on, but he could come up with a good night if you are willing to take the risk.
Jordan Clarkson ($4,000): Clarkson gets good run on the second team, and nearly always comes up right around 5x value. He is a low risk value play at the guard slot tonight.
My picks: Curry(PG); Lillard(PG), Clarkson(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
C.J. McCollum ($7,700): McCollum relies mostly on scoring for his value. The good news is that the Lakers give up points like there is an unlimited surplus. Guards have given the Lakers fits so far this year, so I could see both Lillard and McCollum having good games so long as Utah didn’t beat them up too badly last night.
Klay Thompson ($6,700): Thompson has managed to keep a pretty stable floor lately. This game could turn into a blowout, but judging by how ineffective the Spurs have been at guarding shooting guards, Thompson should get enough to hit at least 5x value before taking the rest of the night off.
Honorable Mention:
Danny Green ($5,000): Green has played well with Kawhi Leonard out. Green isn’t going to light up the scoreboard or carry your lineup, but he is a threat for 6x value against the Warriors tonight.
Dark Horses:
Andre Iguodala ($3,800): Iggy is consistent in the amount of minutes he plays and the amount of fantasy production he provides. Iguodala is always around 14-17 DraftKings points, it seems. That isn’t enough for him to get value, but realize that many players wont tonight. If you put together a 250 point lineup, you should easily be in the money. Guys like Iguodala can really help if you have a certain number you need to get to.
Brandon Paul ($3,000): The rookie had an excellent game with Manu out on Monday night. He is a big risk with Ginobili back in the mix tonight, but the potential of a blowout and his stellar play on Monday could put him on the court enough to hit at least 6x value at this price. There is significant risk, but if Paul has a good night, he could really put your lineup over the top.
My pick: Thompson(SG), Paul(G); McCollum(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Kevin Durant ($9,700): Durant is going to carry at least 60% ownership tonight, which could scare some away. The potential of this game getting out of hand also limits his ceiling. Durant had a season low in DraftKings points in the blowout win on Monday night. There is potential for it to happen again, but Durant is one of the few going tonight that can hit 50 DraftKings points. If the game stays close, he likely will. Is that enough to bet on?
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Ingram ($5,800): The Blazers have been the stingiest team in the league to opposing small forwards, which makes Ingram a bit of a risk. However, he has been playing some at the two, so I still see Ingram having a decent night. He likely wont hit the 30’s, but mid to high 20’s is certainly possible. He is the next best option if you aren’t paying for KD.
Rudy Gay ($5,300): Gay has not hit value in the last three games, but 5x value isn’t going to happen in a lot of places tonight. Gary has still been in the 20’s for DraftKings points. A stable floor could help put you in the money if the stars falter like they did on Tuesday.
Dark Horses:
Evan Turner ($4,400): Al-Farouq Aminu left in the fourth quarter of last night’s game with elbow and ankle injuries. It seems likely that Aminu will not play tonight. If that is the case, more should fall on the shoulders of Turner. He played a season-high 37 minutes last night. He could pick up well over 30 again. If that happens, he should make value.
Mo Harkless ($3,800): This all hinges on the availability of Aminu. If Aminu plays, I’m off of Harkless. However, if he picks up around 20 minutes tonight, he should be a lock for at least 6x value. Pat Connaughton is also an interesting punt play if Aminu is out.
My pick: Durant(SF), Gay(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,300): The Celtics did quite a defensive job on Aldridge Monday night, but that will likely be an outlier. The Warriors have not defended the interior well, despite the outstanding defensive stats that Draymond puts up. Aldridge should have a nice night against the Warriors with Kawhi out again.
Honorable Mention:
Larry Nance ($5,200): Nance is playing more minutes than any of the other bigs that the Lakers have, and he is doing a lot with it. He has at least 5x value in three of the last four games, and five of seven this year. Randle will eventually take back his role on the first unit, but it wont happen with Nance playing like he is. Nance is one of the safer options on the night at this price. He also has ample upside.
Kyle Kuzma ($4,800): Kuzma has done a solid job as a rookie on the Lakers second team. His upside is capped because he doesn’t start, but the Lakers showed against Detroit on Tuesday that all three forwards can be great values in this offense. Kuzma relies more on scoring than the other two do, but that also gives him a little more upside.
Dark Horses:
Ed Davis ($3,900): The Blazers are likely going to ease Noah Vonleh back into action, as shown by his 13 minutes last night in an overtime game. That means Davis will still have some nice short-term value yet at his price. With Aminu out, that could leave a few more minutes to be picked up by Davis and Vonleh. I trust Davis a bit more right now.
David West ($3,300): Normally West wouldn’t be on the DFS radar, but on this small of a slate, West may be worth a look. He doesn’t play more than a quarter per game usually, but his production is solid while he is on the court. Most nights he nets at least 5x value. However, he lacks upside, and there is always a chance that he gets well under value due to his limited time on the court. However, if you are looking for very low ownership and need the cash, West is an interesting pick.
My pick: Nance(F); Aldridge(PF), Nance(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($7,200): His ability to produce in every category makes Draymond a favorite among DFS players. However, Aldridge is a very good defensive player. Green isn’t a big part of the offense anyway, so I don’t really think that affects his overall stats that much. Aldridge has a much better chance of hitting value, but Draymond has upside and will be have much lower ownership.
Jusuf Nurkic ($5,900): Nurkic put up a line closer to the ones he put up early after his trade from Denver than from his mostly uninspiring ones so far this season. The Lakers are decent on the inside, but Nurkic is the best pure all around center on the board.
Honorable Mention:
Brook Lopez ($5,600): Lopez has been a very nice fit with the Lakers thus far, but he is going to have his hands full tonight. Portland has allowed the least fantasy points in the league to centers this year, but this team played a lot of minutes last night. This could be a night that Lopez still gets around 5.5x value.
Pau Gasol ($5,400): Gasol’s production hasn’t been that far removed from LMA’s lately. The Spaniard has four straight games of at least 5x value. He should easily make it five straight against the Warriors tonight.
Dark Horse:
Julius Randle ($4,700): Randle has been extremely efficient in the minutes he has received lately. He has not played more than half of any game, but Randle has averaged 26 DraftKings points per game over his last five outings. There is no reason to think he wont do that again tonight.
My pick: Gasol(C), Nurkic(C), Randle(PF); Gasol(C), Randle(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with ESPN college pick em picks!