DraftKings NBA Picks November 3: Who Is The Safest High Priced Option?

We have a busy Friday with 12 games in the main DraftKings tournament. With all of the stars on display, I think I am leaning towards balanced lineups. Those did better with a loaded slate on Wednesday as well.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

John Wall ($9,700): Wall didn’t come close to value in the blowout on Wednesday, so he should be well rested heading into a big tilt with the Cavs tonight. Cleveland has not defended the point well so far this season. Wall is usually consistent when he gets the minutes, so he should be in for a good night tonight. I trust him more than Westbrook against Boston’s fifth ranked point guard defense and elevated price point.

Ben Simmons ($9,100): I may even consider Simmons the top option here because he is going to get his share of minutes no matter what. The Sixers are trying to get everyone in the lineup acclimated with each other. That means the starters on the court at the same time more than with most teams. Simmons has averaged 45.8 DraftKings points per game for far in his rookie year. That is a touch above 5x value, which is tough to attain over the course of several games.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($7,900): Russell had a huge game against the Suns on Wednesday, and could to the same thing to the Lakers. The Lakers will be on game two of a back to back, having to fly back from Portland. Russell is free from the drama in L.A., and would probably like a little dish of revenge on his trip back.

Dennis Schroder ($7,100): Like Russell, Schroder is the primary ball handler on a team with little else around him. He will take a lot of shots, and is a lock to score at least 20 points a night. He has only missed that plateau once all season. The Rockets are not great defenders, so Schroder should see plenty of open looks in this one.

Reggie Jackson ($6,400): Now that the calendar has turned to November, does that mean that Mr. October will cool off? Maybe so, but Jackson’s start to the season can’t be ignored. He has shot nearly 50% from the floor and is distributing the ball well among his teammates. Play him until he cools down, as this price for him is usually a bargain.

Dark Horses:

Mike James ($5,000): It is a crapshoot as far as who will produce the most at point for Phoenix. I still think Ulis has the most upside, but James is getting more run right now. And honestly, at this price, it would be hard for him not to hit 5x value with as much court time as he is getting. James is a reasonably priced punt option with decent upside.

T.J. McConnell ($4,900): Markelle Fultz is getting closer to a comeback, so McConnell may not be an option much longer. However, us DFS players live in the now, and now McConnell is giving good return on our investment. He has four straight games of at least 6x value. That’s good enough for me!

Kris Dunn ($4,700): Dunn could be a huge bargain at this price. He demolished the fantasy upside of Jerian Grant, and honestly, the presence of Grant steals some upside from Dunn as well. However, Dunn has the greatest chance at hitting value since he will see the most minutes. Dunn has 52.25 DraftKings points in his two games back. That puts him a shade above 5x value, and he’s barely got going yet.

My picks: Russell(PG), Dunn(G); Dunn(PG)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,000): I am a fan of the balanced lineup tonight, however if you are looking to build around a stud, Harden deserves consideration. The Hawks don’t defend the perimeter well at all, so no matter where Harden ends up playing, he can exploit that defense. The chances of a blowout will damped his ownership, but if this game gets out of hand, Harden will be the main reason why.

Victor Oladipo ($8,000): Oladipo continues to play very well in his new home. The Sixers are allowing the most points in the league to shooting guards, so this looks like a match made in DFS heaven for tonight. However, at this price he wont be able to significantly blow past value because Oladipo is mostly an offensive player.

Honorable Mention:

Devin Booker ($7,600): Booker has been on quite a roll lately, averaging 5.5x value even at this price over his last five games. The Knicks are decent on the perimeter, but Booker is a decent passer and has become a better rebounder this season. He does more than just score, which makes him less of a risk in the DFS world.

Evan Fournier ($6,900): Fournier has a nice matchup with the Bulls here. Elfrid Payton is still listed as questionable, which leads me to believe that Payton will be limited if he does play. Fournier is a better option with Payton out of the picture, but the matchup with the Bulls is good enough to use him anyway.

Eric Gordon ($6,700): Gordon has been huge in the absence of Chris Paul. He has averaged 5.2x value even at this price with Paul out. With Paul still out, I expect another strong game from Gordon against the rebuilding Hawks.

Dark Horses:

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700): Hardaway torched the Rockets on Wednesday. That bodes well going into an uptempo matchup with the Suns. Hardaway should see a ton of open looks tonight. He has established himself as a scorer for the Knicks. He has racked up 70 points in the last three games. As expected, that has translated into really good DraftKings points.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,500): Lamb has filled in nicely for Nicolas Batum. He is a good scorer from the outside. A meeting with a Spurs team that got picked apart from the outside by the Splash Brothers last night is a good matchup for Lamb as well. He should clock in somewhere near 6x value.

Kyle Anderson ($4,300): Anderson benefited the most from Brandon Paul’s dud. He had a strong game scoring, and is a good rebounder. That gives Anderson a high floor against a Charlotte team that hasn’t defended the wing all that well with Batum out. Anderson is a strong bargain play if you are paying for a stud.

My pick: Hardaway(SG); Anderson(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200): Giannis has had two straight games in the low 40’s to drop his price down into a manageable range. He should be back up in the 50’s against Detroit tonight, which would put him close to 5x value. I still don’t mind paying for Giannis because he has a high floor. When 43.5 is his low mark, you can still land above the money line with good value picks.

LeBron James ($10,600): LeBron dominated the Pacers, again, on Wednesday night. The Wizards are statistically the worst team in the league as far as giving up fantasy points to small forwards. This looks like another huge game for LeBron. It is perfectly acceptable to fade Giannis here. I have a feeling many will. Of course, I will be trying to cram both him and LeBron in my lineup. We will see how that goes.

Honorable Mention:

Brandon Ingram ($6,100): Ingram has found some consistency this season where it eluded him last year. He still has a clunker here and there, but good performances against Detroit, Utah, and Portland show that Ingram may finally be to the point where we can count on him in daily games. This looks like a nice matchup against the Nets as well.

Robert Covington ($5,800): Covington is a poor man’s Draymond Green. Covington contributes in all categories, giving him a nice floor. However, he can score the rock where Draymond isn’t much of a scorer. Covington gets less of everything else, but still enough that he rarely busts, especially at a price like this.

Dark Horses:

T.J. Warren ($5,600): Warren lit up the Wizards on Wednesday night, and will look to duplicate the feat in New York tonight. Warren has picked up most of the scoring slack with Bledsoe persona non grata in Phoenix. Warren gets consistent run and consistent shots. He has also posted back to back double-doubles. Warren should be a great bargain again tonight.

Kent Bazemore ($5,300): Bazemore’s shot hasn’t fallen lately, which has limited his value. Tonight he gets a Houston team that gives up a ton of points from the outside. If Bazemore can knock down about 40% tonight, he will get at least 6x value.

Bojan Bodganovic ($4,400): Bojan is getting good run with the Pacers lately. He has racked up 89.75 DraftKings points in his last three games, all Pacer victories. This formula seems to be working, so Bogdanovic has a great shot at 7x value again tonight.

My pick: Warren(SF), Covington(F); James(SF), Warren(F), Bogdanovic(G)

Power Forwards

Best Bet:

Anthony Davis ($11,200): The Pelicans have figured out a way for two of the most talented bigs in the league to play well together. Davis does the bulk of the scoring while Boogie has elevated to an elite rebounder and all around defensive monster in the middle. For daily games, they are both among the most reliable high priced options around. LeBron is tempting tonight. So is Giannis. And honestly, they probably have higher ceilings than Boogie and Brow. But those two are much more consistent. Davis’s low point is 54 DraftKings points in games in which he didn’t leave after five minutes. You can’t get any more consistent than that!

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,100): This is the kind of situation where Pop likes to rest players or hold them out entirely in the second night of a back to back. Can he afford that luxury with Kawhi still out? If Aldridge plays his normal compliment of minutes, I like him as a solid alternative. He continues to put up numbers close to what he did in Portland carrying this team with Kawhi out. Expect more of the same against Charlotte.

Honorable Mention:

Kevin Love ($7,500): Love is often forgotten on this team now. At this price, he shouldn’t be. Love has quietly put up at least 5x value in three straight games. His production should be in for a slight increase with the loss of Tristan Thompson out for the next month. The price is right on Love tonight.

Aaron Gordon ($7,300): Gordon has upside better than anyone else at this price. The caveat here is that he is still somewhat inconsistent. The Bulls are dangerously thin at the four because of Bobby’s Portis’s sucker punch, which leaves Gordon looking like an outstanding play tonight.

Paul Millsap ($6,700): It took Millsap a couple of weeks to settle in with his new team, but he looks much more like the Atlanta version lately. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last four games. Miami did get Whiteside back, so there are a little better in the middle, but it’s nothing MIllsap can’t handle. He is a solid mid range play tonight.

Dark Horses:

Lauri Markkanen ($6,400): If the Bulls have any sense (a fact which is debatable among fans an sportswriters alike), they would cut ties with Portis and just roll with Markkanen and Mirotic. Of course, Markkanen is pretty much a slightly more talented version of Mirotic, so that wont happen. With Markkanen seeing this many minutes though, he is a lock for 5x value. He has not fallen under 4.8x so far this season. That is remarkable consistency for a rookie. Especially one that didn’t know he would be starting until three days before the season began.

John Collins ($4,800): Collins doesn’t see enough minutes to give him significant upside, but he is constantly at 5x value in this price range. Denver and Charlotte are the only two teams that have been able to hold him under so far. Houston doesn’t have the size on the inside that those do, so Collins should be between 5 and 6x value.

Kyle Kuzma ($4,700): All aboard! Larry Nance suffered a broken hand last night, and Kuzma went nuts after his departure. Nance’s injury means a lot more minutes for Kuzma, which means he is an absolute steal tonight. Kuzma will be a chalk play, but one you may not be able to afford to miss.

My pick: Kuzma(PF); Davis(PF), Kuzma(UTIL)

Center:

Best Bets:

DeMarcus Cousins ($11,500): Every time I question the merits of Cousins’ price being higher than Davis’s, he drops a 70 bomb. Cousins, with his dominant all around, game, may have the best upside of any player on the board. Of course, I’m not paying up for him tonight. The Mavericks, despite any big names in the middle, are in the top third of the league in fantasy points allowed to centers.

Nikola Jokic ($8,600): His slow start to the season is forgotten. Jokic has at least 5x value in each of the last four games and five of the last six. Miami wont be able to stop him on the inside. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he puts up as many DraftKings points as Cousins does tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Joel Embiid ($8,300): Embiid played 30 minutes in a game for the first time in his NBA career. He responded with a 58 DraftKings point monster against the Hawks. The weakness of the Atlanta interior had something to do with that, but Indiana isn’t all that great on the inside without Myles Turner either. Embiid should be in for at least 5.5x value here.

Andre Drummond ($8,200): The Milwaukee interior wasn’t all that great even with Monroe in the middle. With Monroe out, there is a chance that Drummond could really have a big game tonight. His rebounding prowess always gives him a solid floor. He should be able to land yet another double-double here. I don’t know if he will outscore Embiid, but he will play more minutes and should at least come close.

Hassan Whiteside ($7,600): Whiteside only played 26 minutes in his return, and he matches up with a Denver team that is in the top five in fantasy points allowed to centers. That should keep Whiteside’s ownership down, but I’m not sure it should be. Whiteside is an elite rebounder and shot blocker that doesn’t need to score to hit value. I think he still makes value tonight, and possibly more since his price is depressed some.

Dark Horses:

Clint Capela ($6,900): The Hawks have been brutalized on the interior for most of the season with Millsap gone. Next up to dominate them will be Capela, who is having a breakout season in Houston. 7x value is a real possibility tonight.

Brook Lopez ($5,900): Lopez has done a fine job for the Lakers so far. There are so many good options at center tonight that he could go mostly unnoticed, but he has a nice matchup against his former team tonight. There is no bad blood here, but he would still like to give a little something to the team that traded him.

John Henson ($4,500): Henson will benefit most from the absence of Monroe. Thon Maker doesn’t play enough to register on the fantasy radar, but Henson racked up 6.5x value in the first game with Monroe out. Expect more of the same tonight.

My pick: Jokic(C), Capela(UTIL); Henson(C)

Next: FanDuel NBA Picks

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