NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 8 Top Picks and Plays:
Hopefully you were able to take advantage of shootout in Seattle last week for NFL DFS, and I’ll aim to provide some insights on which games may repeat that production this week. Again, pricing is tight, so I’ll be focusing my bankroll on GPP contests. Nevertheless, I’ll look to uncover any underpriced values, exploitable matchups, changes in workload, and my hot takes.
Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 11/3): New Orleans – 29.25, Dallas – 28.5, Houston – 26.5, Seattle – 26.25, Kansas City – 26, Philadelphia – 25.25
Underpriced NFL DFS Value Plays:
Vernon Davis – WSH (TE) – FanDuel
Washington will head to Seattle this week, to take on the Seahawks, who sit as a seven point home favorite. The projected game script should should favor the Washington passing game. Tightend Vernon Davis will be thrust into a bigger role this week, and I’ll break that down in the “workload changes” section. He’s an excellent value play on FanDuel as he only costs $5400.
Michael Thomas – NO (WR) – FanDuel
Michael Thomas is another discounted pass catcher who is a bargain play on FanDuel. Thomas’ ceiling has been capped by the new offensive style of running the ball more, but he’s had a somewhat consistent floor. While Tampa Bay’s defense will get a few players back from injury, they are still very susceptible through the air and this total has been on the rise since it has opened.
T.Y. Hilton – IND (WR) – DraftKings
T.Y. Hilton has had a rough stretch of games, failing to record over 3 catches in any of the last three games. Chuck Pagano came out earlier this week and acknowledged this when saying that they need to get Hilton the ball more. While coach speak can be a slippery slope, Hilton will have a better than expected matchup against an injury riddled Houston defense, who gave up 41 points last week. Hilton has seen one of the largest price adjustments on DraftKings. He began the season with a $7600 price tag and is now available this week for only $4900. This would indicate a good buying opportunity.
NFL DFS Matchups to Exploit: Doug Martin vs. New Orleans run defense
While most will be focusing on the juicy matchup that the Saint’s offense will have, many will ignore the advantage for the Tampa Bay offense. New Orleans defense has far exceeded expectations, in part to stellar play from Marshon Lattimore and Cameron Jordan. They currently rate as the 4th most efficient defense against the pass, however, they rank 29th against the run. These are the type of funnel defenses that can be exploited in DFS. While I think Winston is closer to 100% healthy than he was last week, it would make sense for the Bucs to lean on Martin, on the road, against a porous run defense.
NFL DFS Changes in Workload: Vernon Davis – WAS (TE)
I’ve touched on Vernon Davis from a pricing perspective, but what is even more encouraging is his potential increase in opportunity this week. Washington will likely be without Jordan Reed and with Jamison Crowder missing practice again on Friday, it would appear that he may not make the trip either. If this holds true, this should open up Davis to massive usage on Sunday. Crowder and Reed are the main targets in the middle of the field (other than Thompson), and I would think that Davis is the main beneficiary of their absence. Niles Paul may also miss with a concussion sustained in last week’s game.
On the other side of the ball, things get even better for Davis’ matchup. Seattle’s stud safety, Earl Thomas, suffered a hamstring pull against the Texas last week and is now being reported as a “long shot” to play this week. When Thomas missed a period of time last year, it showed. The defense was not the same without him. All signs point up for Davis, but be aware that he will be highly owned.
NFL DFS Hot Takes: Kansas City and Dallas score a combined 60 points
This total opened 48.5 offshore and quickly rose to 51 before the Ezekiel Elliot news. As of now, Friday, is currently sits at as high as 54.5 in some spots. Passing through a handful of key numbers is critical here and when looking at the metrics, the move appears to certainly be real.
Kansas City currently ranks 31st in run DVOA, and with Zeke now projected to play, I would expect Dallas to be able to get anything they want on offense. The offense flows through Zeke and I don’t see Kansas City finding a way to stop him. While they are a bit better in the passing game, they are allowing opposing outside receivers to feast. Peters generally plays one side, so this allows opposing offensives to get their top pass catcher against cornerbacks like Kenneth Acker. Acker has a PFF grade of 47.4. In summation, Bryant and Zeke eat this week.
On the other side, the defense doesn’t get much better for Dallas. Dallas ranks just above Kansas City in total DVOA, as the 25th best. Dallas’ pass rush has improved, but I would expect Alex Smith to make easy work of a young secondary.
NFL DFS Hot Takes: Doug Martin records over 20 DraftKings points
I talked about how attractive the matchup is for Doug Martin this week, and I would not be surprised to see him be one of the highest scoring, low owned plays of the week. Tampa Bay is generally a pass heavy offense, but even in a pass first system, Martin has received 19 and 22 touches in the last two games. Even if he doesn’t eclipse the 100 yard mark, I see this game going over the total, so he should get opportunities for goal line work as well.
Next: FanDuel NFL Lineups Week 9
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