DraftKings NBA Picks November 4: Spend On The Interior
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks November 4: Spend On The Interior
There are five NBA games today, but only four are in the main DraftKings tournament. In order to get a piece of the day game, you have to play the all day pick em tournament.
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Just a reminder that the classic tournaments on DraftKings truly are classic. They do not allow for late swapping. The late swap tournaments are much, much smaller, so we have to decide if we want a fair match, or if we want to win big money. We shouldn’t have to decide that!
The money line way up to 280.5 last night. I had a lineup break 300 despite the injury to T.J. Warren and a bad night from Dunn. This was due to a monster night from LeBron and good value from Bojan Bogdanovic.
The winning lineup was up to 386.75. He had LeBron with Ben Simmons and Brook Lopez and great value from Kuzma and Allen Crabbe.
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Point Guards
Best Bet:
Stephen Curry ($9,500): Curry continues to put up good value in every game. The matchup in Denver does carry the risk of a blowout, and given that Curry tweaked his knee on Thursday, the Warriors would love to get him some rest tonight. Keep that in mind when choosing your lineup. That said, if the game is close, Curry will be in there.
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($6,700): Holiday is the main threat for the Pelicans from the outside, but he doesn’t always put up consistent numbers. The Bulls have not defended the perimeter well so far this year, so I tend to think that Holiday hits value in this one.
Jeff Teague ($6,300): Mr. October was outplayed by backup Ish Smith last night. Sacramento has actually defended the outside pretty well, so I will avoid the whole Detroit situation completely and go with Teague against Dallas. Teague has had a couple of duds this year, but they were against teams that are solid on the perimeter. The Mavs are not.
Dark Horses:
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,100): Outside of an awful game against Utah, Smith has been solid so far in his rookie campaign. The Timberwolves have given up the second most fantasy points to point guards this year, so Smith has a great chance to outperform his price.
J.J. Barea ($4,400): The Clippers shut down Barea, but chances are that his former team wont be able to. Barea sees plenty of minutes at both guard spots, and should see plenty of open shots. He wont go 0-9 from the floor again. I promise you that.
My picks: Smith(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($7,500): Butler will be a solid change of pace for what could be heavy ownership of Klay tonight. His price has dropped to the point where 5x value is attainable on any given night for Butler. Tonight against Dallas looks like a good spot for that as well.
Klay Thompson ($7,000): Thompson has been a very consistent producer so far this season. He has really only had one bad game, and that was against Memphis. Denver had done pretty well on the perimeter this season, and Klay is mostly a scorer. There is risk involved here, but he is playing so well that most will ignore it.
Honorable Mention:
Justin Holiday ($5,900): Just in terms of sheer volume of shots, Holiday is worth taking a chance on. Of course, he had a bad week last week, shooting only 26% from the floor. Holiday had a nice game last night, and could be back on track. Still, he has a high floor because he gets to take so many shots.
Avery Bradley ($5,300): You need a crystal ball to see which of Denver’s stable of guards will produce on any given night. It is a crapshoot. As an alternative to that, I offer Bradley, who is a pretty consistent scorer for the Pistons. He held this role in Boston last year. Bradley is mostly a shooter, but he is a solid enough defender to keep him at or above value most nights.
Dark Horses:
Buddy Hield ($4,400): Hield is often inconsistent from the floor, but I saw something on Wednesday night that was encouraging. Hield racked up seven rebounds, a couple of assists, and three steals. If he can produce like that in other categories, it makes him much less of a risk and a much better DFS option. I may wait another couple games to see if this trend continues, but on a light night Hield will have very low ownership due to a matchup with the Pistons. He is an interesting gamble if he keeps up the defense.
E’Twaun Moore ($4,100): Moore has done a nice job backing up Holiday with the Pelicans. He sees plenty of minutes, and is almost always at 5x value. He lacks upside, but putting together a strong lineup with little upside can win you cash on a night like this.
My pick: Moore(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bet:
Kevin Durant ($10,300): Durant has a pretty consistent floor, even on a team full of stars. On a light slate night, consistency can be even more valuable. It wont take 280 to cash tonight. 250 will probably land in the money. So if you can get in the high 40’s from Durant, you are off to a good start. I don’t think he hits 50, so if you have guaranteed value elsewhere, go for it. However, on smaller slates, there are very few guys that can even hit 40. If you want that, you have to pay for it.
Honorable Mention:
Tobias Harris ($6,400): Harris has already slowed down from his blazing start, mainly because he isn’t rebounding nearly as well. He still has a lot of upside, but he is also just as likely to come in at 4x value or worse. He has done that three times in the last four games.
Harrison Barnes ($5,800): Barnes is also not the model of consistency, but he has more upside than Harris right now. Barnes has become a strong part of a Dallas offense that needs outside scoring. There is always risk of a subpar game from him as well, but I doubt it comes against Minnesota.
Dark Horses:
Denzel Valentine ($4,400): The Bulls don’t have much left at this point. Valentine has emerged as the best scorer on the second unit. That gives him solid value for his price range. He has the ability to put up some strong numbers with this unit, but it also caps his upside.
Stanley Johnson ($3,900): Johnson is a very cheap starter, and he usually hits value at this price point. He lacks significant upside because he isn’t a major factor in the Pistons offense, but he can free up the cash to play the big names today.
My pick: Barnes(SF), Johnson(F), Valentine(G)
Power Forwards
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($11,200): Davis just continues to put up over 50 DraftKings points per game. He is one of only two players active today that can do that. I strongly suggest that you not worry about high ownership on Davis. It’s going to be really hard to make money without him.
Draymond Green ($7,200): Green is usually a solid producer because he does so much on the defensive end. He has struggled against larger teams, which Denver certainly fits that bill. Detroit and Washington manhandled him, but he excelled against the Clippers and looked solid against the Spurs. I think he is solid against Denver as well.
Honorable Mention:
Paul Millsap ($6,800): Millsap enjoyed his finest game as a Nugget against Miami last night. This wont be the last time he does that. He is adjusting to playing alongside Jokic. They are learning to coexist in the frontcourt much the same as Boogie and Brow are doing in the Big Easy. Both are playing well right now, but I much prefer Millsap because of his lower price.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,600): Markkanen has played very well since being thrust into the starting role. So much so that Portis and Mirotic are going to have a hard time recovering the slot. He looks comfortable in the Bulls offense, and is a good enough rebounder to give him a solid floor.
Dark Horses:
Dirk Nowitzki ($4,600): The veteran is no longer the player that he once was, but much like Zach Randolph in Memphis last year, he has adjusted to his new role and still hits value often. Speaking of Randolph, he and Skal have been alternating between good games in Sacramento. I don’t trust anyone in that frontcourt right now. Dirk is the safer pick, but lacks serious upside.
Nemanja Bjelica ($3,400): His versatility lands him on the court more than Dieng, particularly against versatile teams. Bjelica is a significant risk, but if you are looking to put out a star studded lineup tonight. Bjelica should play at least a quarter and hit value though he has little to no upside.
My pick: Davis(PF), Millsap(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,400): Cousins’ production is a little more volatile for the Pelicans, but he also has a greater chance of dropping 70 DraftKings points. Cousins is having a career year so far, and provides more upside if for no other reason than he is on the court more than Davis. Play Davis for stability. Play Cousins for upside. Play both to dominate.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,800): Towns was a disaster against the Pelicans as he spent the entire game in foul trouble, which sapped his aggressiveness. He should get back on track against the Mavs, and should come at lower ownership because of Wednesday’s dud.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Jokic ($8,500): If you are worried about the Pelicans’ matchup against Chicago on the inside, I would play Denver’s poor man’s version of the twin towers. Golden State has been weak defending bigs on the interior, so I expect strong nights from both Millsap and Jokic.
Andre Drummond ($8,100): With all of the other good options at center, Drummond may go unnoticed. He shouldn’t. Detroit’s matchup with the Kings may be better than any other center has, and Drummond’s rebounding ability gives him a more stable floor than anyone but Cousins.
Dark Horses:
Robin Lopez ($5,400): Lopez is never going to be the offensive force that his brother is, but his solid defense and his low salary make him a virtual lock for value every time he takes the court. He just doesn’t have much for upside.
Jordan Bell ($3,200): Playing any Warriors center is a risk, but Bell seems to be doing more with his limited minutes than Pachulia or Javale McGee. If you are really strapped for cash, Bell has hit 5x value in three of his last four games.
My pick: Jokic(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with ESPN college pick em picks!