Could Dzanan Musa join Luka Doncic in the NBA Draft lottery?

Luka Doncic gets all of the publicity among the 2018 NBA Draft’s international crop. Bosnian wing Dzanan Musa gets left behind because of it, but he’s a legitimate threat to be among this year’s lottery picks. The 6-foot-8 wing plays for Cedevita in Croatia, and he’s been a regular in their rotation since he was 17 in 2015-16, playing mostly Adriatic League games. This year he’s playing a bigger role in Cedevita’s Eurocup run, and the results have been pretty promising — he’s averaged 14.0 points and 3.8 rebounds per game in four Eurocup contests.

Scoring is Musa’s calling card. He’s proven to be able to hit big shots and get to the rim consistently at every level he’s been at. Whether that’s dominating Eurobasket qualifiers or averaging 19.7 points per 40 minutes last season, Musa’s checked every box related to his ability to put up points. This weekend in Eurocup, he had another one of his scoring explosions, finishing with 20 points in just 18 minutes during Cedevita’s win over Unics Kazan. Kazan is a solid defensive squad, with several good defensive wings like Melvin Ejim, Jamar Smith, and Anton Ponkrashov. This is a good opportunity to explore how Musa’s scoring binges happen, and see how his game might translate to the next level.

Most of Musa’s scoring came off 3-point looks — he hit 4-of-7 from deep, 2-of-3 on catch-and-shoot opportunities and 2-of-4 on pull-ups. The catch-and-shoot looks are where he’s made the most improvement in his game from last season. Musa would often be hesitant to fire when receiving off the catch, and as you can see from this clip from last March, his release could end up being slightly jerky and mechanical.

Musa has been playing with his shot motion over the summer, though, and it’s clear that his comfort level with shooting off the catch is improving. He’s quickened his release, and now he’s displaying a tighter release, one that’s closer to his one-motion release on pull-ups, his preferred shot. Hitting this shot off an imperfect pass in transition is something you wouldn’t see from him last season.

This catch-and-shoot option adds a nice compliment to Musa’s pull-up game, his strongest asset. He’s long been far more comfortable with the ball in his hands that without, and his potential as an isolation scorer is strong thanks to his confidence and the quickness of his release. On these looks, you can see how his release is aesthetically ideal — he gets great lift, has a quick, snapping release, and gets great arc and rotation on the ball.

Musa’s improvement in this area is promising for his projection to the NBA, as he has been a woefully inconsistent shooter to this point. After hitting just 2-of-19 from 3 in Eurocup play last year, he’s 10-of-21 this year, a 47.6 percent clip. That’s pulled him up to 35.8 percent for the year, an improvement over his 32.7 percent performance on 165 attempts last season. Musa’s probably never going to be a 40+ percent sharpshooter — guys who are this reliant on pull-up jumpers never are, inherently because pull-up jumpers are usually more tightly contested — but he has the range and the release to keep this improvement going at the next level. That he’s an 80 percent free throw shooter also helps to support the idea that Musa is a better shooting prospect than his numbers indicate.

Another improvement highlighted in this game is Musa’s ability to draw contact. He’s not an elite athlete, but he has the quickness and functional strength to get to the rim in transition and in the halfcourt. However, he had never been skilled at drawing fouls consistently. This year, though, he’s averaging 6.4 free throw attempts per 40 minutes, a function of the physical maturation he’s undergone. Musa drew five free throw attempts against Unics, his most impressive move being this drive on Stephane Lasme, where he gets a step thanks to a hesitation move, and then dips in against the former Heat player’s chest to draw the foul.

Musa isn’t going to have the quickness advantage in the NBA that we see against most European clubs he’s facing, so he’ll need to find a way to still have efficiency inside the arc. This continued build-up of strength and his craft on drives might be a solution. How he’s able to use that new-found strength and physical maturity to dislodge defenders and draw fouls is something to watch throughout the rest of the year.

Defensively, Musa didn’t really do much in this performance to persuade against the idea that he’s not likely to be a good defender any time soon. While Unics didn’t really put him in too many high-stress on-ball situations, they did pick on him a few times off ball, where he struggles to recognize plays and gets hung up on screens consistently. Here at the top of the screen, Musa gets caught ball-watching, and then gets hung up on a Kostas Kaimakoglou flare screen.

He also clings to his man too much, and doesn’t make reads of obvious threats off ball. Here he is defending Pavel Sergeev on the perimeter, and chooses to pass right over Lasme, who immediately cuts to the rim and gets a contested basket.

You could argue this is defensive assignment play, but still, that’s a read Musa has to make at the NBA level. The defense has collapsed, so in the scramble, he has to be able to recognize the biggest threats and account for them, and that’s definitely Lasme, not Sergeev idly sitting on the perimeter. That’s been a continued issue for him throughout his career. If he can’t get better at recognizing the right defensive move in different sets and situations, it’s going to be very difficult for him to ever be a useful player on that end at the next level.

Next: Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming into his own, again

Musa’s an interesting prospect because of his on-ball potential. He’s passed every test he’s had as a scorer to date, and his performance against Unics helped to showcase his ability to play both on and off-ball. That skill set is one that can work in the NBA — bench players who can initiate on-ball are valuable for propping up the offense when your stars sit. There’s potential that Musa can be that type of player, especially if he continues to improve as an on-ball scorer.

However, he has some significant questions to answer defensively before he’s able to be that guy. He has done a poor job of putting his physical tools to use on that end, and he seems to struggle with the mental aspect of that side of the game. How he addresses (or fails to address) those defensive problems will likely determine his ceiling. That hasn’t burnt him yet in Europe, but it’s a large question that looms for his transition to the NBA.