DraftKings NBA picks November 7: Is a Unicorn better than a Freak?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks November 7: Is a unicorn better than a Freak?
It’s a busy Tuesday with ten games for the main DraftKings tournament. There is a lot of value again tonight. Who is fools gold, and who can actually help us win some cash? Let’s take a look!
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Just a reminder that the classic tournaments on DraftKings truly are classic. They do not allow for late swapping. The late swap tournaments are much, much smaller, so we have to decide if we want a fair match, or if we want to win big money. We shouldn’t have to decide that!
The money line was just 225 points last night, but I still missed it because everyone on the Heat not named James Johnson was awful, and RHJ left the game with an injury.
The winning lineup was at 324 points. He used Johnson, Len, Dedmon, and had nearly a triple-double from Al Horford to take down the win.
If you would like to try DraftKings for the first time, use this link for the referral bonus! It is good for up to 25% of your first deposit. We have plenty of advice on the site to help you turn that into a solid bankroll!
Point Guards
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800): I trust Giannis a lot more to make value than Westbrook, who has only hit 5x value twice this year. Ben Simmons is going to have a rough go against the Jazz, so if I’m going big at the point, its Giannis. He racked up 63 DraftKings points on the Cavs in their first meeting. That would put Giannis close to 6x value, which is rare at this price.
Damian Lillard ($8,700): Lillard is averaging 55.2 DraftKings points per game over his last five outings. Memphis is solid on the perimeter, but with the way Lillard is playing, we may have to overlook that. Lillard could be a great bargain at this price tonight.
Honorable Mention:
D’Angelo Russell ($7,900): Russell struggled against Denver in their first meeting, but he played just 24 minutes in that game. Russell’s minutes are back up to where they should be, and he has responded with three straight 40+ DraftKings points games. I’m expecting a fourth tonight.
Mike Conley ($7,100): There are a lot of options in this range, but most of them never make value. Conley gets a Portland team that doesn’t play great defense on the outside, and he has at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight games. That doesn’t make him a great play, but it makes him more reliable.
Patrick Beverley ($5,800): Beverley doesn’t have great upside, but he has more than he did last year in Houston. He is playing plenty of minutes and racking up at least 4.5x value. You can do much worse for this price.
Dark Horses:
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,200): Smith has had three solid games since being dominated by Utah at the end of October. Since then, Smith has averaged 25.3 DraftKings points per game, wihc is right about 5x value. Smith’s high volume virtually assures him value, but it also means that is he starts hitting more of those shots, he would be in for a really good game.
Tim Frazier ($4,100): It appears as though Frazier will get one more start in place of John Wall. He was a solid 5x value on Sunday. His shoulder is still bugging, which limits Frazier’s upside, but he is a certain 5x value for as long as he keeps starting.
Patty Mills ($3,900): The Spurs’ offense ran better with Murray coming off the bench, so it looks as though Mills will continue to start. Mills has scored 56 DraftKings points over the last two games. He is a great value while he starts.
My picks: Antetokounmpo(PG); Frazier(PG), Mills(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Bradley Beal ($8,300): While Frazier did a solid job handling the point with Wall out, it was Beal who saw the most dramatic increase in production. Beal has scored 114 points over his last three games and racked up 153.25 DraftKings points in that span. He is a must-start against Dallas with Wall out. Find a way to get him in there.
Victor Oladipo ($8,000): Oladipo continues to put up big numbers with the Pacers. He is reliant on scoring, so he isn’t the most consistent guy around, but Oladipo does have significant upside when the matchups is right. It seems to be against New Orleans tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,100): Hardaway has become the most reliable outside scorer for the Knicks. He has at least 5x value in six straight games. That likely isn’t going to change against Charlotte today.
Justin Holiday ($5,900): Holiday has taken over the role vacated by Jimmy Butler. Holiday isn’t anywhere near the prolific scorer that Butler was last year for the Bulls, but he is the best they have right now, especially on the perimeter. He will continue to see as many minutes and shots as he can handle, so Holiday is a solid value play every night he’s on the court.
Dark Horses:
Joe Ingles ($4,900): Ingles isn’t much of a scorer anyway, so you are playing him because he provides a good floor with his passing and rebounding. So long as Mitchell keeps racking up the points like he is, Ingles’ role wont change. He lacks upside because of that, but Ingles is a solid value play since you know what you are getting from him.
Dwyane Wade ($4,800): Wade had by far his best game of the season on Sunday after Love departed the game with an illness. Love spent the night in the hospital, so if he is unable to go tonight, expect Wade to be a larger part of the offense once again. Wade struggled against the Bucks in the first meeting, but if Love is out, he should still see at least 5x value.
Donovan Mitchell ($4,600): Mitchell’s emergence as a scorer has tempered the production of Rodney Hood. Mitchell is easily the better play of the two right now, and it isn’t even close. While the Sixers defend the point well, it is the only perimeter position that they do. Mitchell should see plenty of time, and shots, off the ball tonight.
My pick: Hardaway(SG), Holiday(G), Mitchell(UTIL); Beal(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,400): The King tallied only 44.75 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Bucks, but he has been on fire lately. Over the last three games, James has averaged 69.9 DraftKings points per game. He has put the team on his shoulders lately. That should continue tonight, especially if Love is out.
Paul George ($7,400): You know my concerns with Simmons tonight, so that leaves George as an acceptable pivot to LeBron. With Westbrook around, George isn’t going to have the monster games that he sometimes had in Indiana. However, George has been a nice compliment to Westbrook, and has hit 6x value in the last two games. He has a great chance to make it three against the Kings.
Honorable Mention:
Otto Porter ($6,700): Only three of the top six teams against small forwards have been the ones to hold Porter down so far this season. Dallas defends the position pretty well, so I don’t expect a big game from Porter, but with Wall out, he should see more chances within the offense.
Tyreke Evans ($6,200): Evans has taken a back seat to Dillon Brooks in many starting lineups lately, but the veteran has put up much better numbers than the rookie. Evans has six straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. He should hit that threshold against Portland tonight, leaving him right at 5x value.
Harrison Barnes ($5,800): Barnes hasn’t been the most consistent producer for Dallas, but the Wizards are statistically the worst team in the league at allowing fantasy points to small forwards. Barnes has been a much larger part of the offense this year with Curry out. While Curry will make his debut sometime soon, it wont be tonight. Barnes is still a solid play.
Dark Horses:
DeMarre Carroll ($5,500): Carroll has been one of the most consistent players for the Nets so far this year. He pulled down a double-double last night after RHJ left he game with a hip contusion. The injury isn’t expected to be serious, but it should still mean a larger role for Carroll tonight.
Robert Covington ($5,300): Covington continues to be highly regarded in DFS circles because of his production across all categories. That makes him a much smaller risk than many bargain plays. Many were unsure what his role would be with so much young talent on this team, but it really hasn’t changed since last season. Neither has his production.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,600): After a slow start to the season Bogdanovic has come around lately. Only the Knicks have held him under 30 DraftKings points over the last five games. Considering New Orleans doesn’t have much on the wing, I expect another solid scoring night from Bogdanovic.
My pick: Covington(SF), Carroll(F); Barnes(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,200): Davis remains one of the safest places to spend nearly 1/5 of your budget. He still has not been under 54 DraftKings points on the season with the exception of the game he exited after five minutes. The Pacers aren’t strong enough up front to keep him under that either.
Carmelo Anthony ($6,900): I wouldn’t use Griffin or LMA against each other since they both play really solid defense. Instead, it’s the consistency of Melo that wins out. He has done well as a role player for the Thunder when he can stay in the game. He lacks upside due to being third in the pecking order, but he has a solid floor.
Honorable Mention:
Paul Millsap ($6,800): I was all over Millsap against the Warriors on Saturday. That was a bad idea. Millsap played just 16 minutes as the game got out of hand early. The game with Brooklyn promises to be closer, so Millsap should see a full compliment of minutes. He had a good run of games before the clunker against the Warriors. He should be able to get back on track here.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,300): Markannen is still going to be the starter so long as Bobby Portis doesn’t sucker punch him too. Portis will come off the bench in the first game after his suspension is lifted, but honestly, I don’t see it affecting Markkanen’s output. He has been very consistent in minutes and production this year. That shouldn’t change even with Portis in the picture.
Dark Horses:
Thaddeus Young ($5,700): Domantas Sabonis is dealing with a calf bruise. If he is unable to go, Young could have a huge game with Myles Turner still out. If Sabonis is able to play, I am off of both since I expect Sabonis to be limited and his very presence will sap the value from Young. Pay close attention to this leading to tipoff. Young could be a very nice value play.
Noah Vonleh ($3,500): With Al-Farouq Aminu out at least two weeks with an ankle sprain, the Blazers will have to turn to some of their youngsters. Swanigan and Collins also saw minutes, but it was Vonleh that did the most with his newfound allotment. Vonleh played half the game and picked up a modest 12 DraftKings points. This will likely go by who has the hotter hand at the moment, but I tend to think that the Blazers will need Vonleh’s rebounding ability over Swanigan’s shooting.
My pick: Markkanen(PF); Davis(PF), Vonleh(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,500): I wont fault you for choosing Cousins over Davis tonight. This is one area where it may be a better idea to do so. Davis is the more consistent of the two, but Cousins dominates teams without traditional centers. Myles Turner is not really a traditional center, so you can add the Pacers to the list of teams that wont have a chance against Cousins, especially if Sabonis is out as well. Both New Orleans bigs could have huge nights tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis ($9,400): The Knicks actually look like a respectable NBA team right now. Not that their record is a lot better than last year, but most of the drama surrounding the team is gone. Porzingis seems to be the one most positively affected by this. He destroyed the Pacers on Sunday. Charlotte isn’t much better up front. If you are concerned with higher ownership on Boogie, Porzingis is a suitable replacement. He wont drop 70 like Boogie is capable of, but mid to high 50’s is certainly possible.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Jokic ($8,500): The entire Nuggets team was a dud against the Warriors on Saturday. Wipe the slate clean after that one. Don’t let that game affect how you value Denver’s mini towers against a weak Brooklyn interior that could be without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
Marc Gasol ($7,700): Gasol is one of the most consistent centers you will find due to his ability to contribute in every category. He has battled some soreness in his knee which could limit his minutes a bit. However, the Blazers aren’t all that tough up front, so 5x value seems likely even if Gasol only plays about 30 minutes.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,000): Jordan is a double-double machine due to his great rebounding and capable scoring. Jordan’s improved free throw shooting doesn’t mean a whole lot in standard fantasy leagues, but it really helps in DFS with many more double-double outings.
Dark Horses:
Pau Gasol ($5,700): Gasol has consistently been a factor in the offense with Kawhi Leonard out. With Aldridge drawing most of the attention in the offense, and from opposing defenses now, Gasol has been free to go about his business on the inside. He isn’t the scorer that he once was, but Gasol contributes across the board, giving him a nice floor for DFS purposes.
Marcin Gortat ($5,500): Gortat is averaging nearly five more DraftKings points at home than on the road this year. Dallas remains terrible on the interior. So Gortat is at home facing a bad defense. He should hit 6x value easily tonight.
Jahlil Okafor ($3,800): Okafor has been ignored all season by the Sixers. The one exception was the one game that Joel Embiid missed for rest earlier in the season. The Sixers are holding out Embiid to rest for the second time tonight. That should mean a start for Okafor, or at the very least, and expanded role. As he showed in that earlier game, he can still produce if given the chance. Just make sure he is active first. If he is not, expect Amir Johnson to see more minutes, and therefore be the bargain pick at the same price.
My pick: Gortat(C); Porzingis(C), Okafor or Johson(UTIL)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with ESPN college pick em picks!