Welcome to the Golden Age of rookie triple-doubles

Remember last year, how insane it was that Russell Westbrook actually averaged a triple-double for the entire season? The insanity of Westbrook’s accomplishment nicely sets up the complete insanity of the original triple-double king, Oscar Robertson. When Big O became the first player to average a triple-double, in 1961-62, that was just his second season in the league. The year before, as a 22-year-old rookie, Robertson dropped an astounding 26 triple-doubles. Modern triple-double master Draymond Green has 19 in his whole career.

Here’s the tragedy, though, about those early days of basketball — when the Finals were on tape delay and all the flights were commercial: the stats were not quite so important. Specifically, recording the stats was not so important. While Robertson’s every-game tallies in rebounds and assists have managed to be recorded for posterity, not every triple-double monster of yesteryear has been so lucky. As a rookie in 1979-80, Magic Johnson averaged a strong 7.7 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game — more than enough to tally a few triple-doubles on his way to winning the NBA championship. But alas, his game log for that season is an ocean of empty squares. The same sands of time also swallowed up Norm Van Lier’s 1970-71 season, which saw him averaging 7.1 boards alongside a league-leading 10.1 assists each night.

Thanks to Basketball-Reference — not to mention the hundreds of statisticians, over time, who have tallied everything up — we can trust that, for well over thirty years now, every triple-double that has taken place on NBA hardwood has been dutifully recorded. This era of impeccable records begins in 1983-84, or just a few years after the 1979-80 advent of the 3-point line.

What is happening on the triple-double scene in this 2017-18 season is completely unprecedented. We’ve never seen anything like it since the records were kept.

In all of those seasons — with all of the stud rookies who would turn into dominant Hall of Famers — between 1983-84 and 2017-18, here is the record for the most triple-doubles that a combined rookie class has produced: six. Six! Between all of the dozens of draft picks that come in each year, none of them, collectively, have produced more than six triple-doubles. This happened on two occasions and, surprisingly, both took place a long time ago:

• 1987-88: Future ESPN broadcaster Mark Jackson averages double-digit assists for one of only two seasons in his 17-year playing career, notching two triple-doubles along the way. Future Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson drops three triple-doubles, helped along by playing all 53 minutes in an overtime game against the Seattle SuperSonics. Somebody named Winston Garland also got one, against Jackson’s Knicks.
• 1989-90: Tim Hardaway contributed three triple-doubles as part of the thrilling Run TMC squad, including one in just 28 minutes. David Robinson showed no rust from his military duty and chipped in the other three. Although Robinson would create many a conventional triple-double in his future, all three of his rookie triple-doubles came out of points, rebounds, and blocks. Hassan Whiteside is the only active player with more than three double-digit block games in his whole career — he has four.

Any rookie triple-double history is incomplete without mentioning Jason Kidd, whose four triple-doubles stands as the modern record.

It is a record that will more than likely be broken in a few months, if not weeks. Actually, by the end of the year, Kidd’s record should be broken not once but twice.

The 2017-18 rookie class has already put together two triple-doubles in these opening weeks of the season — on pace to completely obliterate those full-season records from the late eighties. Let’s meet our prime suspects:

Ben Simmons
9.8 rebounds / 8.2 assists
Projected Triple-Doubles: 18

Here is the complete list of players who, like Simmons, have averaged at least nine rebounds and eight assists in a season — in any season, not just a rookie season: Russell Westbrook, Oscar Robertson, and Magic Johnson.

So far Simmons is the engineer of both of this season’s rookie triple-doubles, meaning he’s accomplished the feat in two of his nine games, or 22.2 percent of his career appearances. If Simmons plays the full 82-game season, that translates to 18 triple-doubles. But could Simmons challenge Robertson’s all-time record of 26? Absolutely. Simmons has had a double-double in six of his nine games, and in all of the other three contests he had at least seven boards and seven dishes.

Simmons is capable of making all sorts of progress in the record books outside of triple-doubles. Currently, his 8.2 assists per game is second all-time for any player who is 6-foot-10 or taller, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain’s 8.6 assists in 1967-68.

Lonzo Ball
6.9 assists / 6.4 rebounds
Projected Triple-Doubles: 3

Despite his dreadful shooting percentage so far in his highly scrutinized rookie year, Ball is still staying in mighty elite company by averaging better than six boards and assists per game. For one, even Kidd didn’t have that balance: as a rookie, Kidd averaged 7.7 assists but “only” 5.4 rebounds per game. The complete list of rookies who averaged better than 6-and-6? Ball, Simmons, Magic, Oscar — and Michael Carter-Williams.

Recent players who posted full-season averages most comparable to Ball include MCW, LeBron James, Suns-era Boris Diaw, and Steve Francis. Those players got as little as one triple-double in that season (James, Francis), and as many as four triple-doubles (Diaw). Seeing how Ball has, even in this slump, gotten incredibly close to a triple-double in three of his 10 career games, I’ll project him on the upper end of that spectrum, with three.

But would anybody be surprised if Ball ended up with more than six triple-doubles on his own? I sure wouldn’t.

Next: The Step Back's 2018 NBA Draft Big Board: Version 1.0

Everybody Else
Projected Triple-Doubles: 1

There are only two other rookies who are averaging more than three assists and three rebounds per game: De’Aaron Fox and Dennis Smith. Fox has gotten within reasonable sight of a triple-double already: in his second career game he scored nine points alongside 10 assists and six rebounds. It’s possible that both players could end up really percolating over the course of the year — in his rookie year, Kidd had zero triple-doubles heading into April, then proceeded to rip off all four of his in a ten-game stretch. With the Kings and Mavericks already the clear cellar-dwellers in the West, there should be plenty of late-season minutes for Fox and Smith to ultimately tally a triple-double between them.