The Pac-12 might only send four teams to the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row, but it also has a chance to finally snap a two-decade title drought.
While Pac-12 basketball doesn’t project to have a lot of depth in the 2017-18 season, it should be another intriguing race to the conference title with two potentially elite teams squaring off.
Three of the four Pac-12 teams to qualify for the NCAA Tournament received a top-three seed and ranked in the top-18 of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency ratings by season’s end. The conference had a couple of pleasant surprises with 11th-seeded USC taking Baylor to the wire in the second round and the No. 3 Oregon Ducks becoming the first Pac-12 team to reach the Final Four since 2008, helping to make up for Sweet Sixteen exits by Arizona and UCLA.
Expect those same four teams to return to the NCAA Tournament in 2017-18 with the potential to put together even deeper runs. This might be Sean Miller’s best chance to break through with Arizona entering the year ranked third, while No. 10 USC returns just about everyone from a talented roster that won 26 games a season ago.
Life without Lonzo Ball should still be successful enough for No. 21 UCLA, which has another dynamic freshman class to pair with veterans Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh. Oregon isn’t in the initial AP Poll after losing multiple stars from its Final Four squad but could be sneaky good behind star New Mexico transfer Elijah Brown.
The question is if any other Pac-12 team even has a chance at making the Big Dance, as there’s a huge dropoff after that. Stanford, Utah and Arizona State should at least be competitive, while it could be a long year for the Washington schools and California.
Preseason Player of the Year: Allonzo Trier, G, Arizona
Trier’s decision to return to Arizona for his junior season rather than test the NBA Draft waters is the main reason Arizona is in the national championship discussion and could result in the guard taking home some major hardware at the end of the year.
It was a tumultuous 2016-17 campaign for Trier, who missed the first 19 games of the year due to a PED suspension despite the NCAA ruling that he did not knowingly take the banned substance. After the former five-star recruit also missed seven games as a freshman with a shoulder problem, many weren’t quite sure to expect once he returned to the court.
Trier silenced any doubters by averaging 17.2 points per game with a 61.0 true shooting percentage to go along with 5.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists per contest. Arizona went 15-3 with Trier, who collected the Pac-12 Tournament Most Outstanding Player Award as part of Arizona’s run to the championship.
While there are a lot of Wildcats who could have high usage rates, Trier should pile up huge numbers on one of the nation’s best offenses if he continues to shoot nearly 40 percent from three and over 80 percent from the free throw line. If Trier stays on the court all season, he will be in the running for the Naismith Player of the Year.
The Rest of the All-Pac-12 First Team
- Elijah Brown, Oregon: Oregon’s success under Dana Altman has been fueled by graduate transfers, and that should continue with Brown arriving from New Mexico. Brown averaged 20.3 points per contest over the past two years with the Lobos and should be able to keep up that pace as the focal point of the Oregon offense.
- Chimezie Metu, USC: With apologies to teammate Bennie Boatwright, look for Metu to crack the first team due to his all-around game. Metu piled up 14.8 points on 55.2 percent shooting and 7.8 rebounds per contest a year ago while impacting the game on the defensive end as a rim protector.
- Reid Travis, Stanford: Travis is back to give Stanford a glimmer of hope, and figures to have a high usage rate with few other options available for the Cardinal. Following an injury-plagued 2015-16 campaign, Travis bounced back with 17.4 points and 8.9 rebounds per game with a 60.3 true shooting percentage.
- Thomas Welsh, UCLA: A strong bench piece for the 31-5 Bruins a year ago, Welsh figures to get many more touches as the starting center in 2017-18. Welsh averaged 10.8 points and 8.9 rebounds per contest last year and will be one of the more efficient players in the conference thanks to his deadly mid-range jump shot.
Preseason Freshman of the Year: DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona
One of the top recruits in college basketball, Ayton will step right into Arizona’s starting lineup to fill Lauri Markkanen’s role and should be able to produce monster numbers.
Ayton is a physically-imposing five-star recruit at 7-0, 260 pounds with a 7-5 wingspan and a 43.5-inch vertical, numbers that Miller could scarcely believe. Many expect Ayton to predictably dominate in the paint, but the 7-footer is skilled and can even step out to the 3-point line to drain shots.
Other than Trier, Ayton figures to get the most touches for the Wildcats and projects to be an efficient piece of what could be the best offense in the country. Perhaps more importantly, Ayton will provide the physical inside presence on the defensive end that Arizona was sorely missing last season.
Other freshmen to watch in the Pac-12 include Oregon’s Troy Brown and UCLA point guard Jaylen Hands.
The Favorite: Arizona
As if the combination of Trier and Ayton wasn’t lethal enough, the Wildcats have plenty of options behind them to round out one of the nation’s deepest rosters.
Arizona has the luxury of bringing in a second 7-footer in Dusan Ristic, who averaged just shy of 11 points per game a season ago. Parker Jackson-Cartwright might not put up huge offensive numbers but brings a steady senior presence at the point guard position, which is always a positive come March.
Ayton won’t be the only Arizona freshman to watch, as versatile four-star shooting guard Brandon Randolph should see a healthy chunk of minutes. The biggest preseason question for Arizona is the health of third-leading scorer Rawle Alkins, who will be out until at least December with a broken foot.
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There’s balance, depth and a mix of new talent plus veteran experience here, resulting in the preseason No. 3 adjusted offense per KenPom. Miller should be able to get the defense turned around from a minor one-year blip, aided by the presence of Ayton, leaving Arizona as the class of the Pac-12.
Projected Order of Finish:
1. Arizona
2. USC
3. Oregon
4. UCLA
5. Stanford
6. Arizona State
7. Utah
8. Colorado
9. Oregon State
10. Washington
11. California
12. Washington State