DraftKings NBA picks November 9: Build Around The Brow
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks November 9: Build Around The Brow
We only have five games for our DraftKings tournament tonight, making it a pretty normal slate for Thursday. What is not normal is the number of stars out there. Who should we pay for? Let’s take a look!
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The money line was down a bit to 260.5 points. Switching to Aron Baynes helped me place a lineup in the top 5000 and another in the top 10,000. Poor nights from Avery Bradley and Dion Waiters prevented them from being really good lineups.
The winning lineup was down to 323.5 DraftKings points. He used Baynes and Chriss for value and had big nights from Fournier, Whiteside, and Dragic with Curry.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
John Wall ($9,500): I’m going with Wall over Westbrook because Wall has been far more reliable this year, especially at home. Wall averages almost six more DraftKings points per game at home, and he has a favorable matchup with the Lakers.
Ben Simmons ($9,000): Simmons was awful from the floor on Tuesday, and he still topped 50 DraftKings points for the third straight game. He does a lot of everything, so even when his shot isn’t falling, he gets value. Simmons is still way too cheap for what he does.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Lowry ($7,000): The middle tier at point guard is a barren wasteland tonight. I don’t trust Holiday against the Raptors’ top five point guard defense, and Lonzo Ball is too poor of a shooter to rely on for value. That leaves Lowry, who hasn’t hit value with consistency, but he at least hits 30 DraftKings points most nights.
Dark Horses:
Derrick Rose ($4,500): Since the Cavs have publicly said they were going to limit Rose’s minutes to between 28 and 31, he hasn’t come close to that mark. Rose is fully capable of hitting that if he were to get those minutes. Even if he doesn’t against Houston, he still has a great chance at value due to the Rockets’ inability to defend the perimeter.
Jordan Clarkson ($4,400): Clarkson has topped 30 DraftKings points in each of his last three games, all while playing a combined 69 minutes. Not only is he the scorer on the second team, but he is the facilitator and a solid rebounder as well. Clarkson lacks significant upside, but he constantly produces great numbers for his price.
My picks: Simmons(PG),Clarkson(G), Rose(UTIL); Wall(PG), Clarkson(G)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($10,700): Harden has only been under 50 DraftKings points once since Chris Paul went down. Harden may not always hit value, but he is consistently over 50, and he can rack up points in a hurry. Just ask Utah. Harden is a strong bet against a Cleveland team that does not defend the perimeter very well.
Bradley Beal ($7,800): Even with Wall back, Beal scored over 20 for the fourth straight game for Washington. The Lakers are similarly weak on the perimeter, so expect Beal to see plenty of chances again tonight.
Honorable Mention:
DeMar DeRozan ($7,200): DeRozan has only been under 30 DraftKings points once this year. He can light up the scoreboard in a hurry,and contributes enough in other categories to give him a pretty good floor. He is no longer just a scorer, and looks like a good play against the Pelicans at this price.
Eric Gordon ($6,500): Gordon has not had below 5x value with Chris Paul out. Even with James Harden doing James Harden things, Gordon is a reliable play. The presence of Harden limits his ceiling, but Gordon has still managed to hit 40 DraftKings points a couple of times.
Dark Horses:
Dwyane Wade ($4,700): Wade has carved out a role for himself in LeBron’s kingdom. He is never going to put up the stats that he did in Miami, but he doesn’t need to either at this price. So longs as the Cavs let him play half the game, Wade will keep getting value.
Buddy Hield ($4,600): Hield was awful as a starter, but he has been lighting up the second teams so far. Hield has 91 DraftKings points in 76 minutes over the last three games. The Sixers aren’t all that strong on the wing because they have a pure shooter playing there. Look for Hield to take advantage when he is in there.
My pick: Hield(SG); Gordon(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,800): LeBron is carrying the Cavs right now. He has averaged 67.4 DraftKings points per game over his last four outings. Sure, Houston defends both forward positions very well (top four in both), but do you really think they lock down LeBron right now? Fade him at your own risk.
Paul George ($7,100): George is leading the Thunder in scoring this season. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that so far, OKC’s big three is playing well together. George is the safer play of the three due to his guaranteed points. Westbrook is still too expensive to count on to regularly hit value.
Honorable Mention:
Brandon Ingram ($5,900): Ingram’s ability to play both the two and the three have helped the Lakers with Nance out. Ingram has been their most consistent contributor on the young season so far. He is a great source of value with decent upside at a reasonable price.
Robert Covington ($5,500): Many pundits wondered what Covington’s role on this team could possibly be this year with all the young talent around. Admittedly, the early returns for Covington were not good. Then came the Fultz injury, which led to Ben Simmons absolutely dominating at the point, which led to starter’s minutes for Covington at SF. This team is very good with the people they are running out there now. I tend to think that Covington has a major role on this team, and in our DraftKings lineups, for the rest of the season.
Dark Horses:
J.J. Redick ($4,600): Redick is lighting up the scoreboard and playing more than 30 minutes a game for the Sixers. He has fit in very well with the youth movement. Even though he has never really defended well, Redick will see at least 30 minutes a game as long as he keeps scoring like he is.
P.J. Tucker ($3,700): The veteran has been playing around 30 minutes per game lately, and though he is an afterthought on offense, Tucker is a solid enough rebounder that he will almost always hit value as long as he remains this cheap.
My pick: Redick(SF),Tucker(F); Covington(SF),Ingram(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,000): It’s tough to call someone priced this high a bargain, but Davis’s low DraftKings point total on the season is 54. He carries virtually no risk, which is very unusual at this price point. Is he going to score in the 70’s for DraftKings points like LeBron? Not with Cousins healthy. But he will get you between 55 and 65 DraftKings points. Who else is that much of a sure thing? Not even the King!
Kevin Love ($7,400): I did mention that Houston defends the interior well, but Love will play as the five for probably half of his time on the court. He is also not your typical big man, since he possesses many skills that guards do. That makes him a tough matchup for most bigs. Love was huge in his return to the lineup on Tuesday. I tend to think 5x value is his floor tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Carmelo Anthony ($6,600): Melo is mostly the third wheel of the big three, but for the most part he has just shut up, scored his 20, hauled in a handful of rebounds, and called it a night. Due to this, Melo’s upside is very limited, but I will take that over the current volatility of the production of Paul Millsap.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,200): Randle is beginning to carve out a larger role for himself, but mostly Kuzma is still the primary benefactor of the injury to Nance. It is harder for Kuzma to reach value with his price up this far, but he has been steady at 5x, even for this price.
Dark Horses:
Julius Randle ($4,800): Randle had a double-double despite playing only 21minutes. Don’t look for a significant increase in playing time, but Randle is a beast when he is in there. He is like Kenneth Faried except for the fact that the Lakers still play Randle.
Jerami Grant ($3,400): Grant has quietly averaged nearly 6x value on the season asthe primary scorer on the second unit for the Thunder. This significantly hurts his upside, but if you need to go cheap, he is as close to a sure thing as you will find at this price.
My pick: Davis(PF); Kuzma(PF),Grant(UTIL)
Center:
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,200): On Tuesday, Brow and Boogie each topped 60 DraftKings points in the same game for the third time this season already. They both produce very well together. You don’t have to try and choose which one will go off on any given night. Most of the time, they both do! So far, Cousins has had a higher ceiling, but also a lower floor. But when they both produce the way they are, why not squeeze both into your lineup?
Nikola Jokic ($8,600): His slow start is a distant memory right now. Jokic has at least 45 DraftKings points in every game over the last seven with the exception of only playing 20 minutes in a blowout loss to the Warriors. Play Jokic with confidence right now!
Honorable Mention:
Joel Embiid ($8,000): Embiid will be well rested for tonight’s tilt with the Kings. Sacramento is weak in the middle, and Embiid is plenty good enough to exploit that. He has had at least 5x value in each of the last three games. Expect it to be four after tonight’s game is through.
Brook Lopez ($6,100): Lopez, Capela, and Steven Adams all play top five interior defenses tonight. I am going with Lopez because the veteran has been the most consistent of the three so far. Only Detroit has really held Lopez down. I could see him with a solid night against the Wizards if you need a solid middle tier option.
Dark Horses:
Dario Saric ($4,600): Saric had a big game with Embiid out. It was big enough that maybe he carved out a little larger role for himself even with Embiid back. Embiid still wont play more than 30 minutes, so Saric should see good run against the weak Kings interior tonight.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,300): The Kings are so loaded up front that it is hard to predict who will get the most run. Cauley-Stein has been solid as far as minutes and production go, but he has very little upside. Expect a solid game against the Sixers, but he may be better suited for cash games at this point.
My pick: Embiid(C); Jokic(C)
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