DraftKings NBA picks November 10: Drummond will punish Hawks

There are eight games in our main DraftKings tournament tonight. We have several stars in action, and plenty of places to find value so you can use the stars you want. Let’s get started!

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,400): I can just about guarantee you that Lillard wont go 4-16 from the floor again. Brooklyn has done pretty well against the point, but Lillard takes such a high volume of shots that he usually has a pretty good floor. There are going to be clunkers like Tuesday against Memphis, but I like Lillard better than Westbrook because Westbrook’s price is still too high for him to hit value with any consistency.

D’Angelo Russell ($7,600): Russell had a rough time with Denver on Tuesday, but Portland is a much more favorable matchup for him. Prior to the Denver dud, Russell had three straight games of 40+ DraftKings points. He should come close to that against the Blazers tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Dennis Schroder ($7,300): Schroder has been upgraded to probable for tonight. Honestly, he has been on a sore ankle for most of the season, and he is still putting up good numbers. He has been under 35 DraftKings points just once on the entire season. He is one of my favorite mid-tier plays because he is less of a risk than most at this level.

Elfrid Payton ($6,900): Payton was very good in his return on Wednesday night. Now he gets rewarded by playing the worst team in the league defending the point. The Suns have given up more points to point guards than anyone else. Payton will have healthy ownership tonight, but I don’t really want to fade him at this price.

Reggie Jackson ($6,200): Jackson has been pretty consistent as well this year. Six of his nine games have been in the 30 DraftKings points range, which puts us right at value. The Hawks are weak against the point just like they are nearly everywhere else. Jackson should get close to 6x value.

Dark Horses:

Eric Bledsoe ($6,000): This is strictly a GPP play since there is a lot of uncertainty here. First off, we don’t even know if Bledsoe is starting. All the Bucks said is that he will play. We also don’t know how many minutes he will get or what kind of role he will have in the offense. The Bucks’ rotations are often head-scratchers to begin with, so Bledsoe could have a monster night for his price, or he could post a single digit DraftKings point game. We just don’t know.

Mike James ($5,100): James has been solid for the Suns, while Tyler Ulis has more upside. James is the one that is always right around 5x value. Honestly, playing any Suns guard besides Booker is risky at this point. You just have to decide if its worth the risk.

Michael Carter-Williams ($3,200): Remember him? MCW got 20 minutes in his second game of the season. It looks as though Charlotte is going to bring him along slowly, but he got 6x value against the Knicks. His price is so low that its easy for Carter-Williams to make value tonight. He is a pretty good punt play if you need to go really cheap.

My picks: Russell(PG), Carter-Williams(G); Payton(PG);

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

Devin Booker ($7,700): Booker is easily the best scoring option that the Suns have. His sheer volume of shots makes him a threat to well outdo his price range. However, he still needs to make shots. As he showed over the weekend, Booker is still capable of duds if his shot isn’t falling.

C.J. McCollum ($7,400): CJ had a big game with Lillard struggling on Tuesday. If Lillard is back on track, McCollum’s value will diminish a little. That said, McCollum is averaging a career high in points so far this year. He doesn’t do much else besides score, but he should get plenty of chances against the Nets.

Honorable Mention:

Evan Fournier ($7,200): Fournier struggled against Boston, but that can be expected. He was back to normal against the Kincks. Fournier has a chance to really light up the scoreboard tonight against the Suns. The Suns have allowed the most points in the league, and Fournier is the most accomplished scorer for this team. I even like Fournier over the top options at the position tonight.

Avery Bradley ($5,800): Bradley had a very pedestrian day when things seemed to be in his favor on Wednesday, but I will give him a pass. He got two fouls within the first 90 seconds of the game. Tonight he gets the Hawks, who are just awful against shooting guards. In fact, they are the worst in the league. Bradley should erase all doubt caused by Wednesday’s showing.

Justin Holiday ($5,800): The Bulls are hoping that Holiday will fill the void left by Jimmy Butler. That hasn’t come to fruition yet, but Holiday has been a solid part of the offense. If he could raise that shooing percentage a few points, he would be consistently hitting 6x value instead of 5x. He has pretty good upside for this price range, and a mostly stable floor.

Dark Horses:

Dion Waiters ($5,500): Utah has a pretty good defense, but its weak spot is the two. Waiters is a good enough shooter to exploit that. Foul trouble led to a lackluster game against the Suns. That also might lead to lower ownership, so Waiters looks like a solid bargain play once again.

Donovan Mitchell ($5,200): Mitchell had an epically bad night against the Sixers on Tuesday, going just 3-21 from the floor and 2-11 from three. Don’t expect nights like this very often. The thing to take away from this is the volume of shots he is still getting with both Hood and Ingles still in the picture. Mitchell is clearly one of the focal points of the offense, and is capable of destroying the value point when his shot is falling.

Malik Monk ($4,200): Monk has become a budding star off the bench for the Hornets. Of course, he is getting this run with Nicolas Batum still out, but if he plays like this consistently, there is reason to believe that he can take more minutes from Jeremy Lamb. For now, Monk is a great value at this price. He has gone over 5x value three times in the last four games.

My pick: N/A; Bradley(SG), Waiters(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500): Kawhi is still out, so Giannis should have a little easier go of it than if he were in there. That said, the Spurs are fundamentally sound, which makes me think that Giannis could have a hard time reaching value tonight. That said, with a lack of elite options and plenty of bargains, Giannis is fairly easy to roster, and should at least hit the high 40’s in DraftKings points.

Paul George ($7,300): George may not be that big of a step down from Giannis tonight. He could creep into the 40’s in DraftKings points at a much lower price point. A more reasonable expectation is about 35, which means you are paying about $3,200 for about 15 DraftKings points. That puts both of them at relatively the same value point, so use whichever you have money for.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($6,700): Middleton has put up two huge games in his last three outings. Even the one that wasn’t huge was a solid game. It’s safe to say that he is back. I’m a little curious as to whether the presence of Bledsoe will help or hut him, but Middleton is capable of scoring elite DraftKings points at a mid tier price. He is a great play in GPP formats.

Tobias Harris ($6,600): Harris has reached at least 5x value in his last two games. Tonight he takes a shot at the Hawks, who are pretty bad everywhere. There is a chance that this turns into a blowout, and Detroit has already shown that they will pull players in a blowout. However, that is the only risk here. Just like most of his teammates, Harris has good upside tonight.

Joe Ingles ($5,100): You can forgive the poor game against Houston. The Rockets are in the top three defensively against small forwards. If you take out that game, Ingles at least 5x value in each of his last six games. He has very little upside since Mitchell and Hood shoot more, but Ingles is a good rebounder, which helps keep his floor higher.

Dark Horses:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,700): Bogdanovic has been a solid contributor in the Pacers offense while starting at the three. He is shooting 50% from the floor over the last week. Bogdanovic is known as a streaky shooter, so ride him until he cools off! It likely wont be tonight against the porous Bulls.

Denzel Valentine ($4,300): Valentine has three straight games between 25 and 31 DraftKings points. He doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he is producing comfortably above 5x value and at pretty low ownership. If you need to save money, you can do worse. Valentine is especially valuable in cash games due to his recent consistency.

Reggie Bullock ($3,600): Stanley Johnson did some light practice work yesterday, but still is doubtful for tonight. Bullock filled in with 15.25 DraftKings points over 33 minutes on Wednesday. He should provide decent points for a really low price, but he lacks significant upside.

My pick: Antetokounmpo(SF), Valentine(SG); MIddleton(SF)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($8,600): Griffin was held in check by the Spurs on Tuesday, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise. The Spurs are tough on everyone. If you subtract that game, Griffin has at least 40 DraftKings points in all but one game. He is heading back to where he starred in college, so that could give Griffin a little extra push tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,900): LMA is the focal point of the offense with Kawhi out. Most nights he has no trouble hitting value, but teams are starting to key on him. The Bucks are at a disadvantage here since they didn’t have a lot of size up front even before they dealt Greg Monroe. Aldridge could be in for a really nice game here.

Honorable Mention:

Aaron Gordon ($7,600): Gordon is the kind of athlete that can give the Suns fits. His game is still rounding into form, but he is an accomplished scorer,and should be able to get a lot going against the Suns inside. That is the best part of their defense, but athletes like Gordon fare better than traditional fours.

Carmelo Anthony ($6,900): Melo led the Thunder in scoring last night in what turned out to be a down night for the entire team. He is about the only one that got close to his normal output. George had a decent game, but it was Carmelo who carried them. He is still capable of putting up solid points on a nightly basis, but his upside is still limited by Westbrook and George.

Bobby Portis ($6,100): Markkanen is nursing a sore quad and a sore ego after Portis shined in his 2017-18 debut. Even if Markkanen is fully healthy, I would expect Portis to play more than half the game. He was on offensive force on the inside for a team that sorely needs one. Ownership will likely be high on Portis, but I will find separation elsewhere.

Dark Horses:

John Collins ($5,100): The rookie got a harsh dose of reality when he was shut down by Boston on Monday. Detroit presents a challenge as well with Drummond lurking on the interior, but Collins should still mostly play the four against a backup, so he should be good for at least 5x value tonight.

Marcus Morris ($4,600): Morris’s price predictably jumped, but it is still in an area where he can hit value. Morris has 52 DraftKings points over his last two games. He will be well rested again tonight, and could see another slight increase in minutes. 6x value is likely, and more is possible.

Luke Babbitt ($3,700): Ilyasova has already been ruled out for the weekend, so we get more value from Babbitt. He isn’t likely to have a game like he did against Cleveland on Sunday, but Babbitt will still play a lot of minutes on a team that lacks an interior presence. If Mike Muscala is back ( he is doubtful), I may slide off of Babbitt, but right now, he looks like a great value once again.

My pick: Gordon(PF),Babbitt(F); Aldridge(PF),Portis(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($8,800): I am a bit worried about a blowout here, but even if it comes to that, Drummond is still going to eat Atlanta alive while he is in there. He is a double-double waiting to happen, and a constant threat for 20 boards. I’m still rolling with Drummond tonight.

Rudy Gobert ($8,000): Gobert still has issues with big centers, so a matchup with Whiteside would seem like a place to fade Gobert. However, the dirty little secret is that aside from his shot blocking prowess, Whiteside is mostly a defensive liabiliity. That would seem to open up things for Gobert, but his rebounds may suffer a little.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Vucevic ($7,700): We saw Whiteside eat up the Suns in the middle earlier this week. Vucevic did a nice job against a Knicks team that has been tough on the inside. He could be in for a pretty big game against the Suns if he can keep up with them.

DeAndre Jordan ($6,900): Like his teammates, Jordan gets a pass for a subpar game against the Spurs. He should get back on track against a Thunder team on the second night of a back to back that doesn’t have a lot of size in the middle. Jordan may not score a lot, but he will haul down a ton of rebounds if the Thunder are laying bricks again tonight.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800): Nurkic has upped his game with Aminu out with the exception of the Memphis game. At any rate, the Nets have allowed the most fantasy points to centers this season. Expect Nurkic to bounce back in a big way tonight.

Dark Horses:

Pau Gasol ($5,800): The absence of Leonard has allowed Gasol to showcase that he can still score some points if need be. This is a great matchup for Pau since the Bucks have no true center since they dealt Monroe. They were getting chewed up on the interior anyway. This is only going to make it worse. Pau should have another strong game tonight.

Aron Baynes ($4,300): Many of you who follow our Twitter account found out about Baynes near lock time on Wednesday. Those of us that made the switch made some cash! The secret is out tonight, but Baynes is such a good value that I may use him anyway. We don’t need to afford many studs tonight, so a balanced lineup may be the way to go.

Noah Vonleh ($3,600): The Blazers are still beat up in the frontcourt. If nothing changes before tipoff, Vonleh should get another start. He hit 6x value on Wednesday. He could do even more damage against the weak Brooklyn frontcourt.

My pick: Drummond(C), Baynes(UTIL); Nurkic(C), Baynes(UTIL)

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