We have questions about the NBA. Luckily, we also have answers. Some of them might be useful. A few might even turn out to be right. This is Five Big Questions and this week we touch on expected participants in the face for the final few seeds in the Western Conference playoff race.
When Rajon Rondo returns who should he bump out of the Pelicans rotation?
Daniel Lewis (@minutemandan): I’m going to go with Ian Clark, but I don’t really want to see that happen. Clark can help space the floor for New Orleans, and he is shooting 37 percent on 3.2 3-point attempts per game in just 18.7 minutes a game. Jameer Nelson can still play, and he is probably a better option as a backup guard at this point in their respective careers. What I think should happen is to have Rondo get Tony Allen’s minutes, in what is such a jumbled mess at backup guard.
Ben Ladner (@bladner_): I don’t think anyone will necessarily get bumped out, though the Pels have less of an obligation to play Jameer Nelson than anyone else. Alvin Gentry might try to find a way to play Rondo, Nelson and Ian Clark 10-plus minutes a game. That will be tough, especially when Jrue Holiday’s best position is also point guard, but Gentry could also play it on a matchup basis, sort of like Steve Kerr used to do with Clark, Patrick McCaw and James Michael McAdoo.
Chris Manning (@cwmwrites): Probably Ian Clark, which is a problem because he can shoot 3-pointers, Rondo cannot do that and the Pelicans really, really need floor spacing. To be frank, Rondo would probably be best served to come off of the bench. You could also argue that this team doesn’t need him because they signed Jameer Nelson, who is definitely better than Rondo.
Aaron Fischman (@byaaronfisch): I think Jameer Nelson will see the biggest reduction in minutes, which is a shame because he’s such an effective 3-point shooter. To more directly answer the question, I’ll go with Ian Clark. By the way, I don’t expect Rondo to start, nor should he.
Paul Centopani (@PCentopani): It’ll probably spell a reduction to Jameer Nelson since he’s been playing almost 28 minutes per game upon his arrival in New Orleans – which really speaks to the Pelicans’ backcourt situation. Nelson’s been solid too, but I suspect he’ll give them the same production in a limited role.
Should the Nuggets trade Kenneth Faried and if so what kind of player should they target?
Lewis: They should never have traded for and then re-signed Mason Plumlee. Faried is a great energy player for a team that lacks players with fire, and as the league continues to downsize, he becomes more and more valuable as a backup small-ball center. But they did re-sign Plumlee, so yes, yet again, there will likely be rumors of Faried being on the trade market. The Nuggets desperately need a rotation-caliber small forward that would allow them to play Wilson Chandler and Juancho Hernangomez (when he recovers from mono) at power forward. Unfortunately, that type of player just doesn’t become available very often, and the Nuggets aren’t going to overpay for an asset like that. They really missed a good opportunity to solidify their point guard rotation by failing to move Faried to Phoenix for Eric Bledsoe. A team with playoff aspirations shouldn’t put that burden on a converted point guard in his sophomore season and an undeveloped point guard that struggles to shoot and not turn the ball over.
Ladner: This problem is why I hated Denver’s offseason other than the Paul Millsap signing. They turned the 13th pick (which could have become Donovan Mitchell or OG Anunoby) into Trey Lyles and Tyler Lydon, who never made sense with this roster and aren’t playing, then re-signed Mason Plumlee for too much money. I like Faried as a backup five because of his energy, rim-running, and rebounding, but there is so little room in the rotation for him, and it a trade feels forthcoming. You can never have enough wings, though I’m not sure Faried alone would net anything of value, and it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to bring some insurance to the point guard rotation in case Jamal Murray or Emmanuel Mudiay go through a tough stretch (again).
Manning: I think the Nuggets should only trade Faried if it nets them a veteran point guard who not only makes sense right now, but over the next few years.Faried provides energy, rim-running and something generally different than the Nuggets have up front with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. The problem, though, is that the Nuggets may have missed their best opportunity to land that type of point guard when Eric Bledsoe was dealt the Bucks. And trading Faried for nothing, or a non position of need, would be a problem.
Fischman: In Faried’s seventh professional season, it’s a shame that he’s fallen so far out of Michael Malone’s rotation, garnering less than 10 minutes of action per game. If Malone won’t play him more, and that’s looking increasingly likely, Denver should explore a trade, possibly for a backup guard (a point guard, shooting guard or combo guard would help). Although the young starting backcourt duo of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris has impressed, there’s not enough depth on the bench. Keep an eye on how backup point guard Emmanuel Mudiay plays. He’s been improving as of late, but overall he seems to be regarded as a disappointment.
Centopani: I feel like this is an evergreen existential debate for the Nuggets. I like Faried a lot. Hustle players and good rebounders always hold a special spot in my heart. But he does have his obvious flaws – like not being able to shoot – during a point in time where floor spacing is paramount. Denver could use a steady point guard presence and has too many forwards. Hmmmm, what about…Faried and Emmanuel Mudiay to Atlanta for Dennis Schroder? Who says no?
Can the Jazz offense be good enough for them to stay in the race for a playoff spot?
Lewis: It appears that they desperately need Donovan Mitchell to not only take double-digit field goal attempts each game but convert them at an efficient rate. It was always a little ridiculous in my opinion to project Rodney Hood to replace Gordon Hayward, and they changed their starting point guard again. They’re a team that may need to put more effort into transition because, with their defense, they should have plenty of opportunities to utilize some of the strengths Rubio and Mitchell have in the open court.
Ladner: Probably not. Utah’s defense will have to be its backbone for it to have any chance of making the playoffs. But I really enjoy watching the Jazz offense when it’s working. Everyone is really smart and Utah moves the ball side to side as well as any team in the league. Because they don’t have a true go-to scorer or overwhelming athleticism, the Jazz players find crafty and fun ways to spring open. As long as Joe Ingles is dropping in rainbow 3-pointers and meandering past dudes into the paint, I’m in for a night of Utah Jazz basketball.
Manning: It’s not likely. Their team is all solid, and Ricky Rubio is doing okay in his adjusted role, but the overall group is just lacking, and it needs more of everything. Their hope has to be that their defense is good that they can eek out ugly games by two or three points. It turns out losing Gordon Hayward matters immensely.
Fischman: The offense probably won’t be good enough to make the playoffs, which is a real shame given their obvious talent on the other end. When Ricky Rubio is leading your team in scoring and Rudy Gobert is not too far behind, some soul-searching needs to occur. Neither Rodney Hood nor Donovan Mitchell appears ready to assert more control over the offensive scoring duties. And if either did, he wouldn’t likely be very efficient.
Centopani: I think so. Their defense is vacuum-seal tight, so they only need the offense to be mediocre. *checks stats* Oof. Right now, Utah ranks 27th in offensive rating, ahead of only the Lakers (bad), Kings (worse), and Bulls (I just threw up in my mouth). I have faith that thing will improve – partially because they can’t really get worse and partially because it takes time to gell with a bunch of new starters. Donovan Mitchell is already really good. The more time he has with his new teammates, the more punk rock Ricky Rubio will put guys in places to score. I predicted the Jazz to sneak into the playoffs as the 8-seed and I’m sticking to that.
Can the Blazers sustain a top-10 defensive efficiency (they are currently 4th per ESPN)?
Lewis: No. They’ll go on a road trip, give up a few 115 point games, and things will adjust. This is a team that could play good defense in four out of seven games, but over the course of 82 games, fatigue, talent, and depth are going to be an issue. It’s not like Noah Vonleh is going to be an elite rebounder all season long, and Al-Farouq Aminu is already dinged up.
Ladner: I don’t know at what point that Suns game stops heavily skewing that number, but it still feels too soon to buy Portland’s defense. They have some versatility on that end, but as hard as Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic try, they’re not especially trustworthy defenders.
Manning: No. Lillard and McCollum have both played really hard and all, but their personnel does not consist of players that make up a top-10 defense. Once more opposing adjustments and fatigue starts to set in more, their defense should flip back in the back and out of the top 10.
Fischman: Yes, but they probably won’t. Here’s why I’m skeptical: According to Basketball-Reference, Portland is enjoying 96 percent Roster Continuity this season, and last season’s very similar roster finished in the bottom third of this category. While considerable continuity can certainly improve defensive efficiency, personnel is the more important factor. Expect an improved defense; just not a top-10 one.
Centopani: I agree with Mr. Fischman’s disposition above, lined with actual, tangible facts. The season’s still young, and while I think they’ll be better on the defensive end, top-10 would be a stretch. This Portland team is a lot of fun, but defense isn’t their strong suit.
Can Blake Griffin be a legitimate MVP candidate?
Lewis: If Kristaps Porzingis can be an MVP candidate, I don’t see why Griffin can’t be one as well. Doc Rivers has given him the lead role in the offense, and the supporting role players around him are talented enough to contribute to team success. If he keeps jacking over 5 3-point attempts a game and shooting above 40 percent, he’s going to be one of the most difficult players to guard in the league. If the Clippers get blown out each time they play the Warriors though, there’s no way he actually finishes in the top three.
Ladner: Yes. I heard someone (Arturo Galletti, I think) talk about Blake as an MVP candidate on one of Danny Leroux’s RealGM season preview podcasts and sort of scoffed. But I think I was wrong. Griffin is so crucial to L.A.’s offense as a scorer, distributor, and floor spacer, and he’s having the most efficient season of his career. It’ll be difficult for him to garner enough votes if the Clippers are stuck somewhere in the 5-11 range of teams in the West, but the Clippers wouldn’t sniff the playoffs without him.
Manning: Sure, but I think it depends on how good the Clippers actually are. In a year that feels like it’s waiting for a dark horse candidate to seize control, a top-six seed, 50+ wins and the same level of stats he’s at right now- 22.8 points per game, 8.5 rebounds per game, over 40 percent three-point shooting- could get him in the conversation. If they flame out and he fades, his candidacy won’t have any legs to stand on.
Fischman: He definitely can be, but it will be difficult if the Clippers don’t finish in the top four spots or so of the Western Conference. True, reigning MVP Russell Westbrook’s Thunder finished sixth with 47 wins a season ago, but he was a triple-double machine, the likes of which we’d never seen in the modern era. Griffin’s Clippers will need to win 55-plus with the sculpted one bringing it nearly every single game for him to have any serious shot at the award. No off-nights. Nearly every season since entering the league, Griffin has improved at least one aspect of his game.
Particularly, he’s been quietly perfecting his 3-point-shooting stroke behind the scenes for some time. He only really began showcasing it, however, in February of last season. Now that he’s launching more than five 3-pointers per game and hitting them at a 40 percent clip, Griffin is much more difficult to guard. Not only can he dribble and pass better than almost any big man in the league, but he also can hurt opponents from inside and on the perimeter. Finally, with the departure of Chris Paul, Griffin will have a chance to facilitate even more. I’d like to see his assist average creep closer to 6.0 per game. Although that could be a challenge, such a statistical improvement would help make a stronger MVP statement.
Next: The Memphis Grizzlies are back like they never left
Centopani: Of course. We’re only four years removed from Blake Griffin finishing third for the award. In the wake of Chris Paul’s departure to Houston, the Clippers unquestionably become Griffin’s team. Without Paul’s domineering point guard style, we’ll finally get to see him in the facilitator role we always wanted. So far, I think they’re playing a more carefree brand of basketball. If he can elevate them to a top-five seed in this Western Conference, he’ll definitely have to be in the conversation. Oh, and did I mention Griffin is shooting an eyelash over 40 percent from 3-point land on about five attempts per game this season?