Mikal Bridges is the 3-and-D wing every NBA team should have an eye on

Risk and reward are obviously inherent components of the NBA Draft process with each prospect possessing a variety of potential outcomes ranging from washing out of the league to becoming a superstar. At the top of the draft, most teams are willing to take more risk, presupposing — mostly correctly — that finding a superstar via the draft is the quickest way to rebuild. However, as the first round chugs along, the waters get murkier.

At some point, the expected outcomes draw nearer and taking on less risk for less reward would seem to become the right play. It becomes better to hit the single than swing for the fences.

Villanova’s Mikal Bridges should present an interesting test case. For reasons we’ll dive into momentarily, the 6-foot-7 wing figures to be a highly competent role player at one of the NBA’s most valuable positions, but not much more. Yet, he enters his junior season as a projected first rounder, slotting in at No. 22 on The Step Back’s inaugural 2018 big board. As the 2017-18 campaign kicks off, Bridges is set to put pressure on the fulcrum that delicately balances the pursuit of surety and risk in the NBA Draft.

Bridges played a simple role in Villanova’s offense as a sophomore. The Wildcats ran a deliberate system, using 18.8 seconds per possession (307th-fastest nationally, per KenPom), centered around either high ball screens or side pick-and-rolls generally involving Jalen Brunson or Josh Hart. Bridges’ job was largely to stand behind the 3-point line with catch-and-shoot jumpers accounting for 54.3 percent of his halfcourt possessions, per Synergy.

The rising junior’s shooting form is a bit mechanical, but it’s repeatable and effective. He posted a 58.8 effective field goal percentage on those catch-and-shoot attempts last season and projects to be a solid 3-point shooter at the next level. Using Andrew Johnson’s equations for predicting NBA 3-point percentage, Bridges rates out at just above 37.0 percent based on his 1.6 makes per 40 minutes and 91.1 free throw percentage.

There are rightfully some concerns about Bridges when it comes to shot diversity. Will he be able to shoot on the move? Is he capable of running off screens? What about pulling up off a dribble handoff? The truth is we don’t really know. Villanova’s offense doesn’t involve a ton of off ball movement for its wings, instead relying on drive-and-kick actions to create space, but it feels like a relatively safe bet to say Bridges will at least be able to stand in the corner and knock down looks when they come his way. That holds value in plenty of offensive systems.

Bridges, however, will need to find ways to contribute offensively when opponents take his 3-point looks away and run him off the line. Right now, the best thing he can do is simply move the ball onto a teammate. Bridges is far from a passing virtuoso, but he’s a high IQ player who doesn’t let the ball stick. When it comes to actually beating close outs off the dribble, though, he struggles. His pull-up jumper is undeveloped and he often looks lost once he gets into the lane. While he finishes around the rim at a high clip (71.2 percent, per Synergy), he struggles to get there on his own:

Bridges does show some flashes handling the ball in transition and if he becomes more comfortable in the tight spaces of the halfcourt, he’ll have a bit more upside than expected:

What Bridges lacks in offensive versatility, he makes up on the defense end. From Creighton’s Marcus Foster to Virginia’s London Perrantes, as a sophomore, he was consistently tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best scorer. Bridges has relatively high hips, but little problem getting down into a defensive stance and his long wingspan — measurements from 2013 list it at around 7-foot, but he looks much longer four years later — is bothersome for opposing players. He’s frequently able to use his size to cut off penetration and force his man to pass out to other options.

Bridges’ physical attributes also translated into plenty of statistical production. He averaged 2.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per 40 minutes as a sophomore, posting what would be the fourth-highest Defensive Box Plus-Minus score among shooting guards or small forwards drafted since 2012, per Sports-Reference. Bridges’ long arms and quick hands make him a disruptive defender in a variety of situations, allowing him to swipe at passing ball-handlers, rip steals from his own man or strip a posting up big man.

It’s worth noting as well that because Villanova’s defensive scheme involves plenty of switching, Bridges has experience guarding all five positions on the floor. He competes well against bigger players on the block and never takes plays off defensively. The Wildcats’ scheme, which is enjoyable to watch if you get a chance, revolves around communication and rotations, two things that figure to benefit Bridges in the NBA.

Given he is the only player since at least 2009-10 (min. 500 minutes) to post better than a 67.0 true shooting percentage alongside block and steal rates above 3.0 percent, there’s an argument Bridges is the best 3-and-D prospect from a statistical perspective in recent years, but that only goes so far. According to Johnson’s P-AWS draft model, Bridges would have ranked near the back end of the top 25 prospects in the 2017 class with a high probability of becoming an NBA rotation player and not much star equity.

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Bridges is really good at the things he’s good at, but his lack of other skills as well as his age — he’s already 21-years old — hinders his upside. And yet, it still feels like come next June he should come off the board at No. 22 or earlier.

At this point, we know how valuable 3-and-D wings are in the NBA. The league’s best teams have plenty of them and given they can generally plug and play in a variety of lineups, they’re extremely important when it comes to roster construction. Perhaps, then, that’s an argument for making the safe play on draft night, for hitting the single rather than swinging for the home run. The conundrum that posits risk against reward in the NBA Draft is not an easy one to solve and Mikal Bridges may only make things harder.

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