NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 10 Top Picks and Plays
NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 10 Top Picks and Plays:
On what appears on the surface as an ugly slate, it may actually offer some hidden gems for DFS this week. I’ll be looking to uncover underpriced value plays, exploitable matchups, changes in workload, and my hot takes.
Top Projected Team Totals Based on Vegas Odds (as of 11/10): Los Angeles (Rams) – 28.25, Pittsburgh- 27.5, Detroit – 27.25, New England – 26.5, Atlanta – 25.75, New Orleans – 24.75
Underpriced Value Plays:
Sterling Shepard – NYG (WR) – FanDuel
After a sound thumping, New York will head to the west coast to take on the struggling 49er’s. The turmoil surrounding the locker room seems to be very real, but a trip away from home may be just what the Giants need. Regardless of the off of the field issues, the injuries to Beckham and Marshall have funneled targets to Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. Sterling Shepard saw nine targets last week, and is extremely underpriced on FanDuel.
Marvin Jones – DET (WR) – FanDuel
With an inefficient running game, the Lions have turned to the air, and receiver Marvin Jones has benefited. Over the last three games, he’s seen 14, 11, and 11 targets. Jones is way too cheap on FanDuel at only $6400. Jones’ price is a byproduct of playing on Monday night, after the salaries are released.
Adam Humphries – TB (WR) – DraftKings
With the suspension of Mike Evans, targets are going to have to go somewhere for the Bucs. While Humphries won’t necessarily see a jump in snap count, he should be relied on more heavily. Chris Godwin is expect to fill the outside role previously held by Evans, but Humphries may see more targets than usual. This is an attractive price on DraftKings at only $3100.
Exploitable Matchups:
New York Jets receivers vs. Tampa Bay secondary
It’s no secret: points can be scored on this Tampa Bay defense, and specifically against the secondary. As of now, Tampa Bay has given up +10.6 PPR points per game above opponent’s average to the wide receiver position (via @Beerswater). This ranks as the worst in the league. We’ve already seen this total rise since opening at 41, and I’d expect the Jets wide outs to find separation this weekend.
Changes in Workload:
Tampa Bay pass catchers
This isn’t any late breaking news, but Mike Evans will miss this week’s game against the Jets. Most are aware, however, its important to look at this change from all angles. First, we can expect rookie Chris Godwin from Penn State, to fill in the outside receiver role opposite DeSean Jackson. He would be the player to see the largest snap increase, but doesn’t necessarily guarantee that he’ll see a target increase.
DeSean Jackson should see a slight bump, but I’m not expecting much, given his role in this offense. Jackson has never been the “position” receiver, and I wouldn’t expect the team to funnel all of Evan’s targets towards him. It’s also important to note that the Jets should have cover corner Morris Claiborne, back this week. Claiborne has played well this year and has a 80.6 PFF grade.
The two pass catchers that I’d expect to benefit the most are Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate. I’ve already talked about Humphries from a pricing standpoint, but I could see Fitzpatrick utilizing him over the middle of the field. The same theory applies to Brate, who is an excellent pass catching tight end and has the ability to play off of the line.
Hot Takes:
New York and Tampa Bay score more than a combined 50 points
On the surface, it would appear that two mediocre teams facing off may not offer much value from a DFS perspective, but I’m predicting that this will be one of the most influential games in DFS this week. This total opened at 41, and saw a sharp increase up to 43 and now 44 in some shops. This move, through key numbers, is very real and makes sense based on the defensive metrics at play.
The Jets are allowing +4.1 PPR points above opponent average to quarterbacks, this ranks 3rd worst. The Bucs are allowing +4.0 PPR points above opponent average to quarterbacks, this ranks 4th worst (via @beerswater). So you can see why the passing attacks could have success here. When looking at the DOVA numbers, the Jets have the 21st most efficient defense, and the Bucs have the 30th most efficient defense.
Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown score a combined 50 DraftKings points
After a slow start to the season, both Le’Veon Bell and Ben Roethlisberger have seemingly found their stride. Whether you believe it or not, most professional handicappers have Pittsburgh as the top team, or near the top, in their power ratings. They are the most talented team when observing all positions, but their struggles early have limited their public perception. In a Sunday night appearance against the Lions we finally saw Big Ben begin to take shots downfield, which will set up nicely against the Colts, who have the worst pass defense against explosive plays (via SharpFootballStats.com).
Next: FanDuel week 10 NFL picks
Good luck out there this weekend! May sure to come here to Fantasy CPR for all of your NBA DFS needs as well as more NFL advice!