DraftKings NBA picks November 12: Harden stands out as best play

We are down to four games for our Sunday DraftKings tournament. That means we have to do some digging for the values that can set our lineup apart. We have plenty of high priced talent. Who is most likely to live up to the price?

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,000): The combination of people still rostering Westbrook and a short slate have made his price into this behemoth. I’m telling you right now that he wont hit 5x value, and may be lucky to hit 4x. However, with Kyrie and Paul out, there is a significant drop off after Westbrook. Significant enough that Westy is likely the only point that is going to hit 40.

Kyle Lowry ($6,800): Lowry has more than 33 DraftKings points in every game out of the last four in which he wasn’t ejected. He has the potential to have a really good day with Irving sitting out the afternoon tilt. Larkin and Rozier aren’t the defenders that Kyrie is. He is a suitable Westbrook fade due to the huge price difference and the fact that Westbrook likely wont outscore Lowry by more than a dozen points or so.

Honorable Mention:

Darren Collison ($5,900): Dragic has only hit value once in his last six games, and that was against his former team. Reggie Jackson is playing well lately, but Miami does a great job defending the point. In this price range, I prefer Collison. Houston does not defend the point well with Paul out. Collison’s early season surge is over, but he should put up somewhere near 30 DraftKings points against Houston

Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,500): I am willing to overlook the less than ideal matchup against the Thunder because of what he has done lately. Smith has 43 points, 15assists, and 13 rebounds over his last two games against the Cavs and Wizards. Don’t expect him to crush value against the Thunder, but 6x is within reach with the way he is playing lately.

Dark Horses:

Terry Rozier ($5,000): Rozier’s minutes were already up with Hayward out, but he got a lot more production with Irving missing most of Friday’s game. His minutes weren’t up that much, and he likely wont start, but Rozier is a strong candidate to have his role increased again. He is a suitable pivot if you are worried about Larkin’s ownership.

Shane Larkin ($3,800): Expect Larkin to start in place of Kyrie Irving tonight. Larkin played 17 minutes and racked up 17.75 DraftKings points with Irving out. However, this doesn’t automatically mean that Larkin will tear things up. The Celtics are deep at the guard spots, so it is conceivable that Rozier or Smart will have better nights than Larkin. However, both are much higher priced.

My picks: Rozier(PG), Larkin(G); Lowry(PG)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,900): I can guarantee you that Harden will get you much more for his price than Westbrook will for his. Memphis has held The Beard in check in two prior meetings. He responded with 38 points, eight assists, and four rebounds. He checked in with back to back 80+ DraftKings point outings before last night. He could come close to that against the Pacers.

Victor Oladipo ($7,700): It seems likely that Harden will guard Oladipo at least some of the time, so Oladipo could be worth the money tonight. He had a nice game against a Bulls team that has been pretty solid on the perimeter. We knew what Oladipo is capable of. Another 20+ point night seems likely, but he will need some assists and rebounds to truly make him worth it.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Gordon ($6,700): Gordon has scored 86 points in his last four games. That means that he has almost hit value just from his scoring alone! Gordon has been rock solid with Chris Paul out. There is no reason to fall off the Gordon wagon until Paul comes back at least.

Avery Bradley ($5,700): Bradley has proven that he can still score with the best of them. He provides little else most of the time, so that really limits his DFS upside and gives him a less stable floor. That said, Bradley can score with the best of them, and gets a whole lot of shots in this offense. This is a great matchup on paper, but there is still risk involved.

Dark Horses:

J.J. Barea ($4,300): Barea’s performance has been as consistent as his price. That makes him less attractive in GPP formats, but in cash games where you rely on consistency, you can do worse than Barea. That said, you can probably field a good cash game lineup without dipping into this end of the pool today.

Norman Powell ($3,900): Powell is a GPP staple because he has really high upside. Of course, there are several games he does nothing at all. This could be a solid night for Powell since the Celtics are short Irving. They are good defending the perimeter, so I don’t expect a great night for DeRozan. Powell could be just what the Raptors need off the bench.

My pick: Harden(SG); Gordon(SG), Bradley(G)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($7,900): Let’s just get this out of the way. George is not going to do what he did in Friday. I don’t really like anyone in the upper tier of this position because all of the matchups are tough. The Celtics have allowed the fewest points to small forwards, followed by Dallas and Toronto. All three are in action tonight. For good measure, Miami is fifth. It’s going to be tough to get value out of any SF’s tonight, but George’s scoring output makes him easily the best option.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,100): DeRozan also carries the offensive load for his team, but he doesn’t just rely on perimeter shots. DeRozan is one of the best in the league at creating his own shot. That means that he doesn’t usually have terrible night. I don’t think he makes value tonight, but I don’t really think anyone at this position does.

Honorable Mention:

Harrison Barnes ($6,000): Barnes had a huge game against Washington, but I wouldn’t expect anything like that tonight. He is going to have to deal with either Melo or George on him, which is really going to hamper his output. Barnes still does enough that he should at least come close to value tonight.

Dion Waiters ($5,600): Waiters was on his way to a well below value night on Friday until he scored eight points in the final minute. His ability to put up points in a big hurry is a reason to take a chance on Waiters, especially at a price like this.

Dark Horses:

Marcus Morris ($5,000): It’s getting to the point where it’s going to be hard for Morris to continue hitting the value point. He still will likely be held to around 25 minutes today, so 5x value is on the table, but don’t expect a lot more. Morris is one of the more solid value plays.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,500): I’m kind of hoping that the Rockets put Ariza on Oladipo, which would leave Tucker or Mbah a Moute on Bogdanovic. That would significantly increase his value, but I still like his upside at this price no matter what.

My pick: Morris(SF), Bogdanovic(F); Morris(SF)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Carmelo Anthony ($6,700): Dallas has been pretty good up front, but someone will have to score for the Thunder. Westbrook will probably have an above average night, so that leaves George and Melo. There is risk with both of them, but they are both accomplished veterans worth a look on a small slate.

James Johnson ($6,200): Johnson continues to struggle with tough interiors. Detroit really isn’t one of those since he wont have to deal with Drummond. Johnson is a good all around player who excels against smaller teams. Outside of Drummond, Detroit fits that bill. He should get back on track tonight after a clunker against Utah.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($5,300): It could look like a game of HORSE with Sabonis and Ryan Anderson tonight. However, Sabonis contributes in many other ways as well. He wont see big minutes yet, and he isn’t the value that he was with Turner out, but he should still hold his own tonight.

Serge Ibaka ($4,900): It’s a rare occasion that I recommend Ibaka anymore, but Boston is pretty weak on the interior. It looks like Horford will play, but Ibaka has three straight games that he has hit value for this price. On a short slate, Ibaka is worth the little bit of risk that he carries.

Dark Horses:

Ryan Anderson ($4,400): Anderson wont come anywhere close to value if he isn’t hitting his shots, which he hasn’t lately. He can single-handedly sink a lineup, but if he is on, he could help put your lineup over the top. Are you willing to take that risk?

Justise Winslow ($4,000): Winslow has mostly been a non factor in his time in the pros, but the Heat are starting to use him up front more. It’s actually helping a little. He is still a risky play, but if Winslow plays around 30 minutes again, he will hit value with ease. The game against Utah was an outlier. I actually think Winslow is slowly trending up.

My pick: Johnson(PF), Ibaka(UTIL); Johnson(PF), Ibaka(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($8,700): Drummond will be a chalk play tonight. He is affordable, and there is a lot of value around to stack him with other studs. His consistency this year is a welcome development. Drummond has been below 40 DraftKings points just once all season!

Hassan Whiteside ($8,000): Utah is exactly the type of game that Whiteside usually struggles in. He picked up 43.5 DraftKings points in that one. He will have his hands full with Drummond, but considering the way that Whiteside is playing against anyone not named the Warriors, he could be an interesting pivot today.

Honorable Mention:

Myles Turner ($6,900): Call me a pessimist, but I don’t really trust that Horford is going to play as much as he usually does. If this was his first, second, or even third concussion, then maybe, but considering he has a long history of them, I’m not quite sure Horford is where I want him to be. Especially when your alternative is a guy with the upside of Turner. Despite the presence of Capela, Houston is in the bottom ten of fantasy points allowed to centers. Turner has really good upside tonight.

Clint Capela ($6,600): On the flipside, Turner isn’t known as a great defender either. With Anderson fighting a slump lately, Capela has shouldered more of the scoring load. he is a solid pivot off of the top guys. If he can play over 30 minutes again, Capela should hit 6x value.

Dark Horses:

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,000): He still splits minutes with Ibaka when Toronto goes small, but he has hit more than 5x value in back to back games. He certainly has a chance to do it against Boston who will likely take it easy with Horford today.

Dakari Johnson ($3,400): Johnson is only in play if Steven Adams is out again. He held his own in his first career start on Friday, and could find the going easier tonight against Dallas if he gets the start. If not, Adams may still be worth a look.

My pick: Drummond(C); Whiteside(C), Capela(UTIL)

Next: FanDuel NBA Picks

Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! For you college football fans, we have all of the games picked against the spread along with ESPN college pick em picks.