Kentucky’s close win over Vermont highlights season-long concerns
By Chris Stone
Kentucky may have beat Vermont, but the close contest raised some questions
The Kentucky Wildcats took a chance scheduling the Vermont Catamounts for an early season matchup in Rupp Arena. The Catamounts, a popular upset pick out of the America East Conference in last season’s NCAA Tournament, are an experienced squad with the potential to make a second weekend run come March. Kentucky, like usual, is full of youthful inexperience and still trying to figure out exactly what its identity will be this season. Even in Lexington, Vermont had more than a puncher’s chance to pull off the upset.
Although the Catamounts came up short, falling 73-69, they asserted themselves as one of the country’s most dangerous mid-majors. Point guard Trae Bell-Haynes has high major speed and was able to get to the rim at will against the Wildcats’ defense while sophomore Anthony Lamb is going be called the mid-major version of Notre Dame’s Bonzie Colson way too many times this season.
We already knew what Vermont was. The story of this game is what it says about Kentucky and where this version of the Wildcats needs to improve before March.
Close games can shine light on inexperience in ways that blows outs simply can’t because the mistakes mean more. The Wildcats struggled to communicate defensively throughout the contest, often leaving open 3-point shooters and hobbling their way through pick-and-roll defense. For example, with 1:46 remaining, point guard Quade Green unnecessarily left Ernie Duncan, a career 42.0 percent 3-point shooter, following a simple pass to a big man at the top of the key to set up a dribble handoff. Duncan, instead, took a few steps the other way and drained a 3 over Green’s late recovery:
On the ensuing possession, Kentucky freshman PJ Washington whipped an errant pass into the Wildcats’ bench giving the ball back to Vermont with a chance to tie. These are the types of mental mistakes head coach John Calipari, through film study and additional game time, can help the young roster clean up as the season moves on. There are other problems that have less defined answers.
Unlike 2016-17 Kentucky, the 2017-18 Wildcats don’t have a defined go-to option down the stretch in these type of games. Last season, Calipari could put the ball in De’Aaron Fox’s hands and be sure the 6-foot-3 point guard was going to find his way to the rim or let Malik Monk run off a few screens to generate an open 3-point look. Fox and Monk were elite offensive creators in their own ways. This Kentucky roster doesn’t seem to have a player in that vein.
On the game’s final possessions, the Wildcats bounced back and forth between shot takers. Green’s ability to at least generate mid-range looks was probably the best form of their late game offense, but those are low efficiency chances and he was being substituted out of the contest in defensive situations. Kevin Knox also got a few opportunities, using his length to knock down a contested corner 3, for example:
But, go back and watch that possession again. The ball never makes it below the free throw line until the pass to Knox in the corner. There’s no pressure on the Catamounts defense, no Fox bursting to the rim forcing tough choices. Knox simply hits a difficult look. While Kentucky may ultimately be able to survive operating on a committee basis in these situations, Calipari needs to find someone who can strain opposing defense to make the shot attempts easier.
Right now, the Wildcats are struggling to create high efficiency chances outside of transition. With Jemarl Baker injured, this roster may not have a single average 3-point shooter on it and it looks like it’s not going to shoot many 3s at all. Calipari’s teams have never been a high volume 3-point shooting team, but with fewer than 20 percent of Kentucky’s total shot attempts coming from behind the arc through two games, this could be the most 3-point averse squad of his tenure.
If your team can’t take and make 3s, then you better be able to create plenty of shots at the rim. Against, Vermont, the Wildcats settled for the mid-range. 33 of their 58 (56.9 percent) field goal attempts were 2-pointers taken away from the basket. Those are the most inefficiency shots in basketball and Kentucky connected on a meager 33.3 percent of them.
It’s unlikely Calipari will be able to turn a roster of non-shooters into shooters by March, but the Wildcats can make up for their lack of accuracy by crashing the offensive boards. In their opener against Utah Valley, they dominated the offensive glass, collecting 43.9 percent of their own misses, but the Catamounts gang rebounded the basketball, taking away those second chance opportunities. Kentucky grabbed just 27.6 percent of their misses on Sunday, a mark that would have ranked 228th nationally last season.
The Wildcats’ lack of shooting shrinks their margin for error on the offensive end because it takes away one of the ways they could generate efficient offense. For Kentucky to succeed this season, they’ll need to run and run often while cleaning up their own misses in the halfcourt.
Of course, this is just November and Kentucky under Calipari has a history of getting into form before the NCAA Tournament tips off. Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats continue to stumble through non-conference play, though, as they attempt to figure out what type of team they want to be.