DraftKings NBA picks November 16: Should you pay a up for King James?

PHOENIX, AZ – NOVEMBER 06: Spencer Dinwiddie #8 of the Brooklyn Nets handles the ball against Tyler Ulis #8 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of the NBA game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on November 6, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona.(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA picks November 15: Should you pay a princely sum for the King?

There are 11 games to fill our DraftKings tournament tonight. We have plenty of stars in action. Which ones will come through for us? Is it better to have a balanced lineup? Let’s check out some stats and trends!

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($9,100): I get it. The Bulls are bad. However, that is all the more reason to NOT play Westbrook tonight. That game has extremely high blowout potential, and it has been PG and Melo that have carried the Thunder anyway. You can have Simmons at $1,700 less than Russ against a defense that is about as bad as the Bulls. I’m a big fan of Simmons here.

Damian Lillard ($8,900): Lillard has had three straight below average games after lighting up the Thunder back on November 5th. However, those came against Denver, Memphis, and Brooklyn. All of them are pretty solid against the point. Orlando is not. They are better with Payton back, but not to the point where I wouldn’t trust Lillard here. He has enormous potential at a reasonable price.

Honorable Mention:

Kemba Walker ($7,400): Walker is easily my favorite middle tier option. One reason is because Cleveland can’t really stop anyone right now. It’s not Christmas yet. They aren’t really paying attention anyway. At any rate, we know Walker is capable of games in the 50’s for DraftKings points. He rolled up Boston for 44.75 with Kyrie out on Friday. He will treat the Cavs the same way.

Dennis Schroder ($6,800): Schroder had a couple of bad games against the Pelicans and Wizards, which are two teams that he really shouldn’t struggle with. That has me a little nervous to use him, even against the Kings, and especially because of the value of Walker. However, if you don’t have that extra $600, Schroder is a suitable option. He still has good upside.

Jrue Holiday ($6,600): For me, Holiday has the most upside in the under $7k tier. We saw him burn the Raptors for 56.75 DraftKings points on Thursday. Now he gets them again, but at home this time. It is entirely possible that Holiday lights them up again. He is about the only perimeter shooter that the Pelicans have right now.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Jackson ($6,100): We have seen solid production from Bledsoe in Milwaukee, but his is clearly a little down in the pecking order, and the team is still going to play Brogdon quite a bit. If you are looking for a point guard in that price range, Jackson is a much more solid producer. Jackson has only been under 25 DraftKings points twice this season, and once since October 25th. He isn’t going to drop 40 anytime soon, but he is rarely under 30, which gives him the type of floor you are looking for in cash games.

T.J. McConnell ($4,500): McConnell’s upside is capped with Simmons running the point, but this is the Lakers. McConnell will get enough run to post some good numbers on their second team. McConnell is a very good value play once again. He has not been under 18 DraftKings points since Markelle Fultz went down.

Patty Mills ($4,000): Mills saw plenty of good shots against Dallas last night. He should find a surplus of them tonight against the Timberwolves as well. Minnesota’s woes defending the point are well known, and Mills is still getting most of the minutes there, though Kyle Anderson is moving in on his action. Anderson has more upside, but he is also $500 more. Mills has solid upside for his price as well tonight.

My picks: Simmons(PG); Walker(PG)

WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 09: John Wall #2 of the Washington Wizards and Bradley Beal #3 celebrate against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at Capital One Arena on November 9, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($7,600): DeRozan came close to outdoing The Beard last night until Harden got hot late in the game. However, it was yet another game over 40 DraftKings points for DeRozan. He has hit that mark in six of 11 games. I would say that he does it again tonight against the Pelicans.

Bradley Beal ($7,200): Unlike last season, Beal has been consistent when not outstanding. That means he carries far less risk than he used to. Beal has seven straight games of at least 32 DraftKings points with all but two of those over 5x value. Miami does not defend the wings all that well, which means Beal should see plenty of good shots out there tonight.

Victor Oladipo ($7,100): Oladipo has done well in Indiana this year. He has only had two games below 30 DraftKings points on the season! Memphis is good against the point, but not the off guard, where Oladipo usually plays. Some may shy away from him playing Memphis, meaning ownership will be lower than Beal or DeRozan. Oladipo’s output could come close to their anywhere.

Honorable Mention:

Jimmy Butler ($6,900): Butler lit up the Suns and Jazz over the weekend. Does that mean that he is finally taking on more of a scoring role with this team? We will find out against the Spurs, who aren’t all that great on the wing right now with Ginobili carrying an AARP card and Kawhi still out. Butler could hit 40 DraftKings points for the third straight game, giving him good upside at a pretty cheap price.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,400): Hardaway was huge against Cleveland on Monday night, and could find the going about as easy against a Jazz team that has had trouble with shooting guards this year. It seems as though the Knicks have finally turned Hardaway loose. He has at least 40 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. The smart money is on him making it three of four tonight.

Donovan Mitchell ($6,100): Mitchell has seen his price skyrocket with back to back games of over 35 DraftKings points. The Knicks aren’t horrible on the perimeter, but Mitchell has become a much larger part of the offense at Rubio’s expense. Mitchell should still be a solid value even at this price.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lamb ($5,700): Lamb is the best outside shooter than the Hornets have, so I definitely want him in there against the Cavs. Cleveland has been absolutely torched from the outside this month. That isn’t going to change here, making Lamb one of the better bargain plays out there tonight. Ownership may be low with Batum starting, but Batum likely wont play more than 20 minutes in his first game back.

Buddy Hield ($5,100): Hield has been outstanding off the bench. He still plays more minutes than starter Garrett Temple, and has far more fantasy upside. Hield has averaged 29.3 DraftKings points over his last six games. Atlanta is not going to hurt his average any. Despite not starting, Hield looks to be in for a pretty big night.

J.J. Redick ($4,800): The Sixers have allowed Redick to just stand out there and shoot. Against teams that don’t defend the perimeter well, like the Lakers, Redick has finish with some pretty good point totals. Redick isn’t going to put up huge numbers like Jordan Clarkson is capable of, but he is more consistent and plays more minutes. Either are solid options tonight.

My pick: Hardaway(SG), Hield(G), Redick(UTIL); Butler(SG), Hield(G)

ATLANTA, GA – OCTOBER 29: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks prepares to dunk against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on October 29, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): It’s to the point where I am just going to say that Giannis is never a bad play. Some nights he isn’t as good as some other, but I am never going to say “don’t play him.” However, Detroit did “only” allow 47.5 DraftKings to Giannis in the first meeting. That would put him closer to 4x value with his price this high. There may be better value plays, but Giannis is always a threat to throw down 60 considering his DraftKings points average per game is a ridiculous 57.2.

LeBron James ($10,900): The King has been almost as good as Giannis from a points perspective, which is impressive considering that he didn’t hit 50 DraftKings points in a game until his third game of the season. Of course, dropping 90 will significantly improve your average. King James has the highest DraftKings point total of the season for anyone so far, so you know what he is capable of. Giannis is more consistent, but James is capable of that truly great game, and Charlotte can’t defend him.

Honorable Mention:

Paul George ($8,500): George has put up two huge games in a row, picking up 130.75 DraftKings points against the Clippers and Mavs. Tonight he gets the awful Bulls, a team that he routinely abused while with the Pacers. The Bulls are without Justin Holiday. Not that it matters. George would have put him through the wringer too. Fading either top option for George isn’t as crazy as you may think, though the fact that he still has Westbrook on this team means that his production could be cut in half if Westbrook gets hot.

Tyreke Evans ($6,600): This is the Tyreke Evans of five years ago. Evans has scored more than 20 points in every November game and has not been under 30 DraftKings points since then. He is also riding a two game streak of more than 40! Evans is a big part of this Memphis offense right now, and could be a nice bargain against Indiana.

Robert Covington ($6,300): Covington continues to be one of the most consistent producers at one of the most agreeable prices on DraftKings. Just don’t play him against the Warriors. The Lakers are decent on the wing, but decent may not cut it with Covington. He produces all across the board, so 5x value is usually really close to his floor. He also has great upside as his game against the Clippers on Monday shows.

Dark Horses:

Brandon Ingram ($5,600): Ingram has not been good from the floor over the last three games, and his numbers have suffered because of it. He may be able to get back on track since he will likely be guarded at least some of the time by the mostly stationary J.J.Redick. There is some obvious risk here, but Ingram could have a very nice night with him priced like this.

Rodney Hood ($4,800): The Jazz are loaded on the perimeter, so Hood’s upside is pretty limited. That said, Hood has settled into a pretty solid role right now. Hood has been between 24 and 30 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. It’s not much, but it is solid value for the price. Hood is more valuable in cash games right now, but he is a good play in GPP if you need solid points from the position.

Denzel Valentine ($4,300): With Justin Holiday out, the Bulls will lean more heavily on Valentine and Jerian Grant. I expect Valentine to step up with a bigger role because he is the better offensive player. Valentine could have an outstanding game for his price, but there is some risk involved since he will either have George or Roberson guarding him.

My pick: Valentine(SF); James(SF), Valentine(F), Covington(UTIL)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 30: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans and DeMarcus Cousins #0 of the New Orleans Pelicans talk during the game against the Orlando Magic at the Smoothie King Center on October 30, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($10,500): I recommended Davis against Toronto last week and specifically said there was virtually no risk to using him since he had at least 54 DraftKings points in every game. Brow responded with a miserable 38.25 that night. So why to I believe in him tonight? Because the stats still say Toronto is not strong up front. There is risk because of what happened last week, but there is at least as good of a chance that Davis dominates in lower ownership than what would have happened had he destroyed the Raptors last week.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,200): I love Porzingis, but I hate his matchup with Utah. I would rather roll with LMA, who picked up 48 DraftKings points against the Timberwolves in the first meeting. The only possible issue here is that the Spurs played Dallas last night, and travel to Minnesota tonight. With Parker and Kawhi still out, it limits their ability to rest players, but just be aware that Pop might sit a couple anyway.

Honorable Mention:

Kevin Love ($7,400): Love was awful against the Knicks on Monday, but he has a great chance to rebound against an average Charlotte team on the interior. I don’t love the middle tier here tonight, but Love has more upside than most. Of course, LeBron has carried the team this month, and therefore is doing nearly everything himself. That makes it hard to trust anyone else for DFS purposes.

Bobby Portis ($6,300): Portis still comes off the bench, but he has played with a high energy from the bench en route to 111 DraftKings points in three games. He is a double-double threat every night whether he starts or not. I like Portis because he is far more efficient than Markkanen, and will likely be in the game when it really counts.

Kyle Kuzma ($6,200): Kuzma doesn’t do a lot besides score and pick up a half dozen rebounds, so there is always a risk that he will go cold like he did on Monday and leave you with a lackluster point total. In fact, that has happened in three of the last four games since his strong run when Nance went down. Philly isn’t great defending power forwards, so there is a chance that Kuzma gets back on track, but there is also significant risk.

Dark Horses:

Domantas Sabonis ($5,300): Sabonis has played well alongside Turner, so he will still see plenty of minutes against a Memphis team that has struggled inside without Zach Randolph. JaMychal Green is back tonight, but he is playing limited minutes, so I still see Sabonis hitting 5x value at the very least. There is always a chance for more if he gets hot.

Dario Saric ($4,600): Saric was miserable against Blake Griffin on Monday, but you can’t hold that against him. Most are. Saric has scored at least a dozen points in every game but that one since joining the starting lineup. Saric isn’t going to go 1-8 from the floor again. He has a great chance to rebound against the Lakers, and could be lower owned due to his dud on Monday.

Jerami Grant ($4,300): The return of Ersan Ilyasova diminishes the value of Luke Babbitt, so I will move back to Grant. Grant was one of my favorite targets in this price range before Atlanta’s frontcourt got beat up. He matches up well with a team like the Bulls, who will use Markkanen and Portis up there. If Melo sits again, Grant is a must play. If not, he is still a solid punt option.

My pick: Saric(PF); Sabonis(C), Ilyasova(PF)

WASHINGTON, DC – OCTOBER 20: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts to a foul call against the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena on October 20, 2017 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

DeMarcus Cousins ($11,100): Cousins fared much better than A.D. against Toronto last week. Of course, he still didn’t reach 5x value. Against a team like Toronto, Cousins has a higher floor, but Davis has more upside. Rostering both is possible since there is enough value out there, however, I would rather use one and pair him with LeBron or Giannis.

Andre Drummond ($9,000): Drummond abused the Bucks for 50.3 DraftKings points in their first meeting, and that was before they dealt Monroe. Drummond’s low water mark for rebounds this year is 12. He has had at least 17 in four straight games. Drummond will dominate the boards again tonight, and will likely come close to the output of Cousins at a much lower price.

Honorable Mention:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,800): Towns picked up 42.25 DraftKings points in his first meeting with the Spurs. That is a little below value, but I kind of have this feeling that a Spur or two may be sitting tonight. That could open up value for Towns and his teammates depending on who gets the night off. If not, I would rather pay up for Drummond, high ownership be damned.

Joel Embiid ($8,600): Perhaps the biggest thing to take away from Monday was the fact that Embiid played 34 minutes, a career high. It seems as though the Sixers are truly ready to turn him loose. He is a sure 45 every start, and has crept into the 50’s a few times as well. Embiid does have huge upside, even at this price.

Marc Gasol ($7,500): Gasol doesn’t have the upside of those in front of him, but he is one of the more solid plays around. The Pacers aren’t that good on the interior. In situations like this, the cash game staple becomes an interesting GPP pivot. It is hard to move off of the top tier centers tonight, but Gasol makes it a little easier.

Dark Horses:

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,700): Nurkic has been terrible on offense lately, but he has played three good interior teams. Miami looks like they should be, but Whiteside is weak outside of his shot blocking ability. Nurkic will be able to have his way with Whiteside. That makes him a pretty cheap option with significant upside.

Enes Kanter ($6,600): I am going to preface this by saying that I really don’t like the matchup with Utah. That said, Gobert is out, Kanter is playing very well right now dominating both the Kings and Cavs. On top of that, this is a revenge game for Kanter. Those factors combine to make him an interesting play at a loaded position tonight.

Derrick Favors ($5,600): Favors was huge against the Nets when Gobert sat in that one. This is a tough matchup against a much improved Knicks team, but relative to his price, Favors could still hit 6x value. Favors is going to be a DFS favorite while his price is this low, so it’s understandable if you fade him in a matchup like this, but keep in mind he wont be this cheap for long.

My pick: Drummond(C), Kanter(F); N/A

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